thurs-sun

34-32-1 -1.52

1 thread rest of week

pretty much took the week off from betting as planned, but I jumped on 1 game the other day, thought was reasonable home dog to take, san jose state vs colorado st, and it was most miserable game ever lol.  I've bet on many teams that shat the bed of course, but can't recall any to that degree.  These losers were down 64-29 with 6.5ish left in the game.  Astoundingly disgraceful stuff. 

1 / 1.43 (50% profit boost used)

Oakland ml vs. milwaukee (Betrivers)

I had a 50% profit  boost ($50 max) randomly on betrivers, expiring today, so used on this.  

Obviously oakland has been through the gauntlet and is better than their record, team has to be hungry for a win.  Basically, I like them saturday more at home vs rmu, but this game is first, and if they win this and rmu loses tonight, that line might be -7 or something saturday.  And I assume milwaukee, who does seem pretty respectable, will be beatable on the road, and oak probably be the hungrier team here.  But if Oak does lose this game, and is -4 or less on saturday, I will double down on that spot to try to come out ahead on the angle.  Preferably they'll just grind one out at home here and these odds are cool.  They've shown too much scrappiness at times during their wild schedule for me to believe they'll bend over and get swept at home this week against other mediocre teams.  

gl

I've found this season to be the most challenging pre-conference play that I can remember......NIL has really changed the conferences and also the "team" aspect of basketball to a degree.......good luck Cap.......

def the crappiest I've done in the non conference (not including the covid season which does not count). 

I am hopeful to make a move over the next week, but need things to break right thru the end of this week to set up some sweet spots/situations next tuesday/wednesday.  The way this season has felt, things are not going to break the way I want them to though lol and things will just be more complicated and frustrating.  we will see.  

friday

1.15 / 1

Wiscy -4.5 vs. iowa (bo)

Combo of home court and wiscy playing teams with a pulse far more often than iowa.  Iowa acquitted themselves very well in their road game at Michigan (2 pt L), but I still expect they'll be fadeable on the road and doubt that will be the norm.  In that particular game, I think a big reason they were able to almost win that game was they were +13 in turnover margin (michigan's major weakness played big there).  I dont see that being the case against wiscy.  If it does come down to needing late free throws, nice that wiscy hits 85% there.  

gl

Thanks Cap for Oakland, I parlayed them with Notre Dame vs. Georgia under 45.5. Good luck the rest of the weekend!  

Nice input 

pizza/fuse thanks dudes gl this weekend

sat

1.1 / 1

Kentucky -2 vs. florida (dk)

line jumped when I went to enter it.  Annoying because could definitely be tight game

Florida isnt going undefeated.  UNC shot 5-28 from 3 and almost beat them.  This is florida's toughest game so far, by far.  Very good team clearly, but doubtful they're some undefeated juggernaut type of team.  Though kentucky got exposed against ohio state recently as being far from a juggernaut themselves, they still should be good enough to win most of their home games.  Take my chances here.  Ideally, this goes as planned, florida losing a tough road game no harm no foul, and then can back them in bounceback home game tuesday against #1 vols (assuming vols beat arkansas at home saturday)

will have few more

1.1 / 1

Ole Miss -5 vs. uga (bo)

1.05 / 1

Neb +1.5 vs. ucla (betrivers)

1.1 / 1

Oakland -5 vs. rmu (caesars)

eh think thats all I'm betting on today.  

Ole Piss- number dropping a bit makes it seem like they'll be old piss not ole miss today.  Would suck.  I dont really get it, they bounced back very well from their other L this year, I assume Beard will have them well prepared in this spot

Neb- think they'll win majority of their home games so pretty much auto play here

Oakland- Oak sure seemed to play thursday like a hardened group that had been through the ringer lol RMU total opposite with their bottom barrel schedule, so would think if oak plays with similar toughness here they'll get it done again.  I dont know why line opened 6 then dropped, really hoped a -4 would come out, the less points laying with poor shooting team the better.  This feels pretty doable tho  

gl on the action

Cap......

sunday

1.15 / 1

Oregon -3 vs. maryland (bo)

@Cappologist

@Cappologist

Think that oakland L was my signal to add horizon league conference play games to the no-bet list.  

1.1 / 1

Penn St -6 vs indy (caesars)

Penn St really plays extremely hard, wasnt all that surprised that northwestern hung with them as they are some gamers, but def skeptical that the woodson hoosiers will match the effort

Oregon- risky as the line doesnt scream confidence in oregon to bounce back, but giving Altman benefit of the doubt here.  Guess we'll see if the ducks just randomly do in fact totally suck suddenly.  Oregon has had 2 abomination games this year pretty much, the portland game, and whatever the hell that was on thursday.  They've otherwise played pretty consistently well enough to believe a bounceback effort would beat maryland, who hasnt shown they can close out a tough game like this.  If they drop this game that's 1-3 in conference with 3 home L's, gotta think they play with serious urgency here.

gl on the action

Cap......

Oregon made it a sweat, as expected, but they were the better team. Glad we got the 3 to make the end game a lot less stressful!

Well done, cap!