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Fordham at St. John’s
When you look at St. John’s on the year, it’s easy to see why they’ve been successful, and at the same time, why they’ve dropped some games as well. For the most part, they’ve won the games they probably should have, and dropped the games they probably should have. Outside of the loss to Delaware State, the five-game losing streak was expected, but it’s interesting to note that St. John’s was competitive in those games against the likes of Minnesota, Michigan State, VCU, and Old Dominion. Thus, it’s important to understand why St. John’s ended up losing those games against decent competition, despite being competitive, and understanding that is basically understanding St. John’s this season. The interior defense is outstanding. They throw all this length and athleticism at you on the interior and force your offense elsewhere. However, the lack of depth just isn’t there. By throwing all this length and athleticism at your interior, they have been committing a ton of fouls against teams who looked to get the ball inside. Teams like Minnesota, Michigan State, VCU, and Old Dominion constantly went inside in a competitive game, put St. John’s in some foul trouble, and when that happened, St. John’s went from being competitive to well, ultimately losing the game. In the wins, it simply hasn’t happened. Thus, when you’re looking at the Red Storm this year, any team who is going to look to get the ball inside is probably going to struggle to put up points early, BUT, if they can get the Johnnies into some foul trouble, the sea will eventually open. While I rant on that, it’s probably important to note that Fordham hardly, if ever looks to score inside unless they’re getting an easy bucket in transition off a turnover. Neubauer has always been a coach who has always ran his offense from the perimeter. By always, I mean always. His percentage of his teams shot attempts have come from beyond the three-point line 40% of the time for the past 11 years. It’s no secret where Neubauer’s teams want to score from. He’s always pressed, he’s always thrown out these weird zones that trap defensively, and if he’s not forcing a turnover and getting out in transition, then there is a good chance his team is going to shoot a 3 in the half-court. So, in looking at this game, there is probably two points of emphasis to figure out. First, can St. John’s handle the pressure? This is where it gets iffy. Looks like LoVett isn’t going to give it a go tonight, which leaves St. John’s in a precarious position, no PG against a weird press. Sort of reminds me when Lovett didn’t start in the Delaware State game a week ago against a similar press and similar zone scheme, and the St. John’s starters combined for 12 turnovers. Needless to say, the pressure might be a challenge for St. John’s tonight. But, it’s also pretty important to note that St. John’s hoisted 37 three’s in that game, hitting 12 of them. Mullin’s been adamant that his team can shoot, so getting up another 30 attempts tonight is more than likely – meaning, if, and a big IF, St. John’s can handle the pressure without their PG, it is likely they’re shooting a 3. On the flip side, Mullin’s defense has been uber aggressive with all the length and athleticism they throw at you. With Fordham’s offense absolutely needing to rely on the three-ball, those attempts are going to be tough to come by, and with their unwillingness to go inside within their offense, this is going to be one of those games where St. John’s is likely to have their full complement of length on the inside which is likely going to be the difference. One of these teams gets to play to their strengths tonight (albeit without their PG against a press), while the other team is going to have to use their press to get some additional offense to stay competitive. Really interesting game, especially without Lovett. In the end, Fordham’s lack of working the ball inside and forcing St. John’s to use their bench really forces them to score in transition off those turnovers, so the game just comes down to how well St. John’s can handle the pressure, and even if they don’t handle the pressure well, they’re still getting tons of open looks and have their full complement of players defensively to make things tough for Fordham in the half-court.
Pacific at Umass
Umass at 5-2 this season is somewhat of a surprise given the fact that they’ve only had one game where their offensive efficiency was above a point per possession (1.03), and that was a game in which Kellogg’s offensive philosophy of launching three’s until you eventually hit some of them against Mississippi’s zone worked out for ¾ of the game before they collapsed late. At Umass, Kellogg’s teams have launched threes at a high clip, despite having a roster chock full of athletic guards who are much better at attacking the rim and getting in the lane. This year, I was a bit skeptical. The roster is a bit of the opposite, and by that, I think it’s a better shooting team than what he’s had in previous years. I had envisioned a team that would score offensively, and struggle to get stops defensively. My visions to this point has been wrong. They have not shot well, and the defense has been what’s carried them. I have no clue on what to think of Pacific under Stoudamire to this point, but this isn’t a spot where I want to get involved. They’re largely rolling out a defense designed to just keep the offense in front of you, and stay in position to get a rebound and work into transition offense. They’re doing a pretty decent job of this to date, but first-year coach travelling across country into what figures to be a highly-paced transition affair, no thanks. Tigers return home back across the country for a Saturday tilt, too, which is just awkward scheduling. Umass is going to chuck three’s and they’re going to start hitting them at some point, I just don’t know when and if they aren’t hitting them tonight, then there is a good chance those long shots lead to easy transition opportunities for Pacific which is exactly what they’re defense is predicated upon. In the end, this result likely comes down to how well Umass shoots from the perimeter, and to date, outside of the Ole Miss zone that a group of third-graders could get up three’s on, Umass has struggled in that department. And a continued struggle in this game is a double-negative because of the opponent and what they want to do, BUT, Pacific off blowing a 20 point lead and all that travel no thanks. Nope.
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i just posted on the iowa/isu game
p a l
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