YTD 24-11 (+12.9 UNITS)
1-0 yesterday (Elon's committment to defense came thru last night but almost blew a big lead in the last 4 minutes)
Western Illinois -3 (1 UNIT) - Taking another conference road favorite tonight. Western Illinois starts 4 SR's and 1 JR. They rank near the bottom in bench minutes so they will keep a verteran unit on the floor most of the night. These guys know what they are about. This is the 347th ranked tempo team in the country. Under Molinari they have never been higher than 325th in tempo and that dates back to the 2009 season. The bottom line is that this veteran group has been in the system for awhile now and playing at the pace doesn't require depth. This team goes inside the arc for 62% of its points (27th in the country) and in conference play I would expect that to increase. They rarely get to the FT line and even though they shoot over 35% from 3PT they rely little on the 3PT shot. This team wants to grind the shot clock and they want to win the game on the defensive end. They don't crash the offensive glass but they will keep their opponents off the offensive glass.
South Dakota is in their second season in the Summit League. This is one of the fastest teams in the country (34th in tempo) and a team that relies heavily on the 3PT shot. They are a team that doesn't committ to being a good defensive team and now tonight they have to face a team that is the exact opposite.
In the two meetings last year South Dakota was a combined 4-31 from the 3PT line. WIU controlled the pace in both games and I expect much of the same tonight. WIU has had a couple of bad losses early but I think this veteran group feels they can compete night in and night out in conference play. They finished the season pretty well and had a nice run in the conference tournament. I like to back a strong defensive team on the road that knows who they are and doesn't rely heavily on the jumper. Getting to go against a team who will be frustrated with pace and a team that takes a lot of 3PT's and will be kept off the offensive glass is another reason to make a play.
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