We have all heard the phrase “defense wins championships,” but it holds true in college basketball. Since 2012, only 1 Final Four team has finished the season ranked outside of the top 40 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, while only 2 National Champions have finished the season ranked outside the top 15 since 2002. Furthermore, 16 of the last 19 champions have paired their elite defense with an offense that ranks in the top 15 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
This is a trend you will hear many times throughout the next week, but it is worth mentioning: the top seeds in March Madness are 143-1 SU all time vs 16 seeds. The lone loss was in 2018 when Virginia was stunned by UMBC, while only 2 other 1-vs-16 matchups have been within one possession. When the top seed is favored by less than 20 points against their 16th-seeded opponent, they are 9-2-1 ATS. Furthermore, of the 143 1-seeds that advanced past the first round, 124 of them also advanced through the second round.
Despite being the most popular upset pick every year, the 12-seeds continue to thrive against the 5-seeds. Since the 2012 tournament, 12-seeds are 21-13-2 ATS in this matchup, with 15 outright wins. In 2013, 2014, and 2019, three of the four 12-seeds upset their fifth-seeded opponents.
In 2011, the tournament expanded to 68 teams and the First Four was created — providing us with 2 play-in games leading into final field of 64 teams. In every year the tournament was played since that time, at least one First Four team won in the Round of 64 as well, sans 2019. After suffering through 2020 without a tournament, UCLA reignited this trend last year when it went from the First Four to the Final Four.
This trend goes with the previous one, as one of the play-in games decides the final 11-seed in the Round of 64. Surprisingly, 11-seeds have been profitable as favorites in the NCAA Tournament. Since 2010, 11-seeds favored in both the Round of 64 and the Round of 32 are 11-2 ATS.
The 8-vs-9 matchup typically presents us with two evenly-matched teams, but it is the underdogs who have been profitable in recent years. Since the 2010 tournament, the underdog in this matchup is 29-17-2 ATS.
If you want to have a unique bracket, then picking a 13-seed to upset a 4-seed is the way to do it. While 13-seeds have won just 31 games in 144 attempts against 4-seeds, the growing parity across college basketball has made these games more competitive. In the last 3 tournaments, 13-seeds are 9-3 ATS vs 4-seeds.
Upsets are common in March Madness, but most of the time the best teams advance to the later rounds of the tournament. Since 2014, just 12 teams seeded 5th or lower have made the Final Four. You can get creative in the first couple rounds when filling out your bracket, but make sure to pick a 1-4 seed to win each region, as that is the most likely outcome.
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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