1-5 Sunday but managed a positive weekend somehow. Took yesterday off.
Utah St -6.5 @ Air Force
Both teams return from extended breaks to kick off their MWC schedules. The layoff I think hurts the AF guys more than the Aggies, as they struggle to find consistency on the offensive end as it is. Now add almost a two week break, and I see them struggling to get anything going offensively early, which could put them in a large hole against an Aggies team that can really score. Once they are in that hole, getting out isn't likely.
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green Under 142.5
EMU and BG both have played SUPER weak schedules thus far, with BG not playing a decent team since November. So, like above, I'd expect it to take some time to find a flow offensively. EMU plays at a snails pace, and then when it does come time to shoot, they don't have anyone that can make a shot on a consistent basis. The Emus are 337th in FGs attempted and 331st in 3pt FG attempted. I have this game being played in the mid 130s.
Purdue -5.5 @ Maryland
If you've been reading anything I've written, you know how much I love Big Ten home dogs, and for good reason. But tonight is a little different for me for a couple reasons. One, Terps had a viral bug run through their locker room in the last week, and it caused their best player in Jahmir Young to miss the Coppin St game, and he's a gametime decision tonight, but I'd be shocked if he didn't go. Second reason is this, Maryland RELIES on getting to the charity stripe for offense (5th in the country in offensive FT rate), and they are playing a Boilers team that just doesn't foul. They have the 8th best defensive FT rate of anyone in the country. Maryland will have to find other ways to score, and I don't know that they will.
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh +4.5
My Heels hit the road FOR THE FIRST TIME. Hard to believe that you could schedule you're whole non-conference without playing a true road game, but Hubert has done just that. I don't think it did his team any favors either. Pitt is gonna guard, as they usually do, but now they have some offensive firepower to go along with that D. UNC won't be able to get on the offensive glass, that leads to open 3s for guys like Ryan and Davis, and that ultimately will be the main reason I can't back the Heels. When they can't offensive rebound, they struggle. They also struggle to play any real defense at times. On the road, it's all a bad recipe.
Northwestern +5.5 @ Illinois
I don't know how Illinois is going to respond to losing their best player. I'd imagine it takes a bit to figure out who is going to be the guy that scores when they need a bucket. NW has that part figured out already though. Illini also have to go to West Lafayette on Friday so not the best spot for a team looking to replace one of the best players in the country.
That's it for me, but the New Mexico/Colorado St game is gonna be the game I'm most excited to watch, just as a fan though! GL everyone and lets get 2024 off to a solid start!
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