73-71
Last weekend was a great one to fade my sorry ass. Let's get back at it.
Illinois -3 (Illini the superior team on offense. Indy ranked 16th in the BIG vs 2PG. Illinois is top5 in the BIG with 2PG%. Illini coming off a bad home loss to USC and will need this game to get back on track after falling 2 games back in the conference standings. Metrics and motivation in Illini favor. I'll give the points to Woodson and his meh squad.)
North Texas -3.5 (In order to compete with N Texas, you need to have a semblance of offense. The Mean Green are a tough defensive team (44th nationally). The Pirates effective FG% is 42.6% which is near the bottom of the AAC. Also, ECU is foul prone and put teams on the line. N Texas is 17th nationally with FT% which matters if the game gets tight. Not a fan of giving points on the road, but home teams in the AAC are only 14-9 S/U so it's not a huge advantage.)
Wisconsin -7 (The Badgers are one of the most efficient teams in the BIG both on offense and defense - 3rd/4th - facing an OSU team that is in the bottom half scoring (2PG/3PG). OSU also turns the ball over at a high rate - worst in the BIG. The issue is that OSU's offense is predicated on hitting 3s and they're current BIG percentage is an awful 28.8%. Not sure if they start to level out with this, but the Kohl Center is a tough place to start.)
Good luck today.
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