Tuesday, Nov. 29 Pics

2016 NCAA Record: 43-55-2

I was 8-29-1 after my posts on Nov. 19. Since then I have gone 35-26-1. While not setting the world on fire, I have at least improved. The difference is I stopped being lazy by experimenting with systems and actually started actually reading & researching to find an angle for my plays. Mistakes have still been made but at least these write-ups have helped me stem the tide and reverse my fortunes. So, if you don't mind, please indulge me and allow me to continue......



Xavier -16.5
There are certain locales that are on my "no-fade" list esp. in the months of Nov. & Dec. The Cintas Center in Cincinnati, OH is one of those. Last year, after their neutral site games in Nov., Xavier came home and ripped off 4 straight ATS wins in a row and did so in convincing fashion. They return a good portion of their production off last year's team which peaked during this same time-frame. We saw what they did to a quality Northern Iowa team this past Saturday.....can you say overmatched? This Xavier squad could very well be repeating their peaking trend from last year.

North Dakota St. comes into this game with a nice record but delving into a bit you'll see they have played absolutely nobody! They lost by DD's @ Missouri State and could not even keep it within SD's on a neutral court against that powerhouse UNC-Greensboro. Now they scheduled themselves to play an away game at one of the toughest places to play in America during a stretch where the home team is most likely peaking and coming together and playing their best basketball? Yikes!

Anything can happen. Gambling is gambling but to me this game has a lot to a little written all over it. Play #1 for the day = Xavier

Adding:

Duke -10.5
Coach Tom Izzo made a stink last week by making excuses to the media, for his team's performance, and blamed it on a "hard schedule." The worst mistake I have made thus far this season was my interpretation of his comments. Boy did I misread that and it lead to a terrible beat by backing Wichita State. We now know that, while publicly he was making excuses, privately he was slamming his team. My guess is some grumbling was going on in the locker room and he made a public display of how silly it looks like to make excuses. It worked too as his embarrassed team was duely motivated to play their best game of the season.

After tonight though, he might hear some more grumbling. Another locale on my "no-fade" list is Cameron Indoor Stadium and Coach K Court during the months of Nov. & Dec. The Dukies protect their home floor like no other during this time of the year. And this might come across as arrogance being a UK fan, but I swear there is currently a "what you can do I can do better" thing currently going on between Kentucky and Duke. They are neck and neck against each other in recruiting battles. They are neck and neck against each other in the polls. And, when one team smashes a helpless opponent at home, the other seems to want to smash the next helpless opponent even worse.

What does this Kentucky/Duke thing have to do with Michigan State you might ask??  Well, Kentucky has already beaten the Spartans this year by 20 and Duke might be saying to themselves: "what you can do, I can do better." If I'm right, and there's some underlying messages being sent back and forth between the Duke and Kentucky programs, then the Spartans are in a world of sh*t.

Look for the Dukies to put a pasting on the Spartans tonight and, afterward, I'm really going to interested in hearing what Tom Izzo has to say about it.

 

I just don't think considering Tom Izzo as helpless is ... a smart thing. I like the pick but Tom Izzo is one of the best

Not at all. I have a ton of respect for Coach Izzo. But I do think they get overwhelmed tonight.

Adding:

Valparaiso +2.5FG
Revenge can be a powerful factor in deciding what team to back and what team not to. Tonight Rhode Island finds itself playing for some payback in the 2nd of a 2-game home and home series at Valparaiso. Last year, Valpo pulled out a win on the road at RI. But the revenge factor can also be a tricky one to deal with. IMHO, it is mostly useful for the home team. It's an even stronger factor when the home team has a number of returning players and the visiting team does not. All the home team needs to see is the name on the jersey. But this is a road game for RI and neither of those conditions apply.

Revenge can be useful for the road team however the road team needs to be caught at the right time. An example was last night Appy State covered the +9 line (albeit barely.) Charlotte was coming off a terrible loss and was at square one trying to build some confidence back. Another example recently was Penn State winning at George Washington. Penn State had lost 2 straight to GW and even though they to have had some issues this year, it seemed to be enough to unite them together to steal a win on the road over a squad in disarray. GW, if you recall, fired their coach in the off-season and, after reading some of their quotes, I concluded they have yet to gel as a unit. Penn State took advantage.

continued below.......

But none of that written above applies in this game. Valparaiso is a healthy squad playing good bball. They won over Alabama and BYU on neutral courts...yes, I know, neither of those teams are NBA squads (sarcasm) but Valpo had to be doing something right to get those wins. You look at the Crusaders schedule and this is their only opportunity to get a win over a top 20 ball club and impress the NCAA Tourney selection committee. Yeah, they play at Ky next week but I got news for you. A win in Rupp Arena ain't happening. This is the 1st time in 6 years a ranked team has visited Valparaiso. The place should be going nuts. They had their letdown game already after their trip. They "cruised" to a pedestrian win over Ball State two days ago. This won't be easy but I think, after the dust settles and the final seconds tick off the clock, Valpo will earn the win at home this evening.

im on all 3

GL Jrock

Oh I see what you were saying. I said "next helpless opponent" at one point in my rant but I was not referring to MSU as helpless...my bad that did sound like I was though. I was thinking out loud about the recent string of 3 games for Ky winning against Duquesne, UT-Martin, and Cleveland St and Duke winning against William & Mary and Appy St. No, MSU is not helpless. But I still think playing at home will allow Duke to cover.

GL tonight Jrock 

SW

Adding:

Xavier -10 1st Half
Alabama -9.5 1st Half
Huge SOS difference here between Bama and ChSo. Reminds me of the 1st half plays I made with Butler last night and UC Bakersfield a few days ago. We'll see if Avery Johnson will have his guys ready.

I am actually getting a little worried on my Char So 3 unit bet now because all I have been reading this afternoon is that Johnson was very displeased with his team in Vegas and has been on them all week about making adjustments....Bama will either blow the doors off of Char So or they might only win by 8....

Good. No reason his players to not have respect a coach like Avery Johnson so looking for the doors to get blown off.

JRock  

nice work

Alabama has 3 or 4 BIG minute players that are transfers or freshman.They have to buy in to system.

LOL @ Duke...can't hit the 3....can't defend. I'll take my 4-1 night and go to bed but before I do I need to apologize to Coach Izzo. You Sir are the master. I'm done fading you.

Thanks for the Valpo pick, it helped me alot brother

Nicely Done Last night JROCK *woof! woof!

jrock great