UCF/TCU write-up

In 2 of 3 rounds so far in the NIT, UCF has been dominating their opponent, only the score does not show this dominance, because the Golden Knights have taken their foot off late in the game, only to reassert themselves and cover. I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup and UCF has a great chance to win straight-up. It all starts on defense. UCF's defense is 17th in efficiency and is anchored by 7'6 tall Tacko Fall, who helps his team ably protect the rim without putting the opponent on the line. TCU relies mostly on its interior for points and this reliance makes this matchup bad for them. They rely most on their big man--who is still over 6 inches shorter than Fall--Brodziansky, on offense. But he has really struggled against teams with length and height in the interior--at Baylor, for instance, he just had 6 points, and I expect a similar struggle here. While Baylor's big men are more athletic than those of UCF, I expect UCF to still be able to contain Brodziansky.  TCU relies for most of its points inside with Brodziansky, but UCF has the #1 opposing 2 point %. But also, TCU will be unable to pose a significant threat to UCF's top-25 perimeter defense on the perimeter. They also lost a fairly important contributor in Fisher, who could have brought the necessary help to attack the sturdy UCF defense from behind the arc. UCF also has the advantage in guard play, led by BJ Taylor who has been averaging over 20 a game in the tournament. Despite his scoring prowess, he has been relatively cold from behind the arc, going just 2/9 from three in his past 2 games. However, he averages 35% from behind the arc on the season and this is why he has all the more upside coming into this game. TCU struggled to contain Iowa's versatile scorers, Bohannon and Jok, who combined for more than 40 points because they are able both to drive it to the rim and knock down three pointers. I think Williams and Taylor are capable of providing this kind of powerful and versatile attack for UCF against a rather non-intimidating half-court defense. UCF has the superior defense and more upside on offense. They should dominate the interior and match up well enough to contain TCU's highest-scorer. UCF has been enjoying success against teams from the major conferences and I think they continue to do so tomorrow night. Take UCF +2.5

O hey and i'm on the same side as scal for once 

Definitely concerned about Fisher's absence, as he and Robinson formed a very nice 1-2 point guard duo in the backcourt. But Dixon always shredded zones when he was coaching at Pitt, routinely torching the vaunted Cuse zone. Oddly enough TCU has seen very few zones this season (Baylor twice, but they play a lot of man and a very unique 1-1-3 zone). As you noted, UCF's interior defense is excellent, but the versatility of Brodianzky and the scorching-hot Kenrich Williams (double figures in 8 of his last 9 games) would give me pause as a prospective UCF backer. Both guys are capable of consistently knocking down long-range jumpers and driving to the rim. Among Big 12 players, only Jawun Evans and Esa Ahmad drew more fouls per 40 minutes than did Brodziansky. I expect both he and Williams will pull Tacko away from the rim, which breaks down the UCF interior defense.

One other point regarding UCF's defense:

I think your point about SOS can work in some ways the other way around. For instance, you mention Williams' hot run, but TCU has lately only dealt with soft interior defenses. I think you also have to look at his struggles against defenses who teams have to mainly score against from behind the arc like Texas Tech (2 points from Williams) or at Baylor (10 points from Williams). UCF is one of those teams who protect the rim very well and rank highly in not fouling opponents. So I am sceptical of TCU players' ability to draw fouls. And without Fisher, I don't see them mounting much of a threat from behind the arc. You mention conference sos but were you not impressed with how ably UCF dealt with Colorado's and Illinois' weaponry? They have very talented and versatile athletes as well and UCF could keep them in check until the end of the game.

Thanks for the input Jfen, I have always tried most to use you as a model for capping so I always appreciate when you pop in

Best of luck 

BOL

Enjoyed the discussion, PJF. Not enough of that around this place.

I always lose the pick when I debate with you, though lol, but yea always a pleasure with you, bud, you always have me learn

I should have faded JagsFan all season. Would've made some serious ..........

Thanks Duke. He's just a troll who only shows up when someone doesn't win and doesn't regularly provide his own picks. Amusing stuff

Lost this one too. Good insight. But we lost. Time to move on