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    All Forums | College Basketball

    UNC to win +$475 has value. Duke @ $160 has no value. Kansas also has Value but not sure they get past Villanova with their recently poor outside shooting

    FRANKtheBANKss
    vetdrm
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    FRANKtheBANKss
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2022 - 12:36 PM ET #1

    Houston was supposed to terrorize Nova on the boards but the opposite happened.  I don't trust McCormick and believe the entire Villanova team can drive inside and score which will result with McCormick getting in foul trouble.  We have seen ALL season Villanova is able to switch and keep their opponents in front of them plus the ability to deny the over the top pass in the post against faster and more athletic big men. I don't see carpet bagger Martin or Agbaji breaking the Villanova switch face up defense or them nailing threes with a man in their face. Miami is the exact opposite of Villanova.  Villanova wants it slow and have a defensive identity and system with each player knowing his role and not being asked to do more than his ability or physical attributes allow. In other words pretty coaching.  Kansas is going to have to be special but Villanova just needs to be what they have been all season.  Daniel's will need to step up on his offensive game with more output and minutes but his game doesn't need to change at all. This line will reach 5 based on the action being taken now. "Sharp" "respected" money whatever that means dropped the line from 4.5 to 4 this morning in some places but don't We have to think Kansas vs Duke is going to be the prevailing view of the "pregame Experts" and the now massive "public" smartphone army that will take these blue bloods of Kansas and Duke. I can't get past the constant failures of Bill Self losing close tournament games when he has had the talent advantage over "less teams". 

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    Houston was supposed to terrorize Nova on the boards but the opposite happened.  I don't trust McCormick and believe the entire Villanova team can drive inside and score which will result with McCormick getting in foul trouble.  We have seen ALL season Villanova is able to switch and keep their opponents in front of them plus the ability to deny the over the top pass in the post against faster and more athletic big men. I don't see carpet bagger Martin or Agbaji breaking the Villanova switch face up defense or them nailing threes with a man in their face. Miami is the exact opposite of Villanova.  Villanova wants it slow and have a defensive identity and system with each player knowing his role and not being asked to do more than his ability or physical attributes allow. In other words pretty coaching.  Kansas is going to have to be special but Villanova just needs to be what they have been all season.  Daniel's will need to step up on his offensive game with more output and minutes but his game doesn't need to change at all. This line will reach 5 based on the action being taken now. "Sharp" "respected" money whatever that means dropped the line from 4.5 to 4 this morning in some places but don't We have to think Kansas vs Duke is going to be the prevailing view of the "pregame Experts" and the now massive "public" smartphone army that will take these blue bloods of Kansas and Duke. I can't get past the constant failures of Bill Self losing close tournament games when he has had the talent advantage over "less teams". 

     
    vetdrm
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2022 - 1:11 PM ET #2

     

    • North Carolina (4-0, +63 margin of cover)

    • Villanova (4-0, +21 margin of cover)

    • Duke (3-1, +13 margin of cover)

    • Kansas (2-2, +18 margin of cover)

    Confessions of a Tarheel supporter.

    Truly worried about there game on Saturday, so much so that I hedged my bets except for NC to win it all at + $625 and +$475 .

    Dont believe in that destiny crap but just reading about all thee alumni in the stands (AGAIN) and 1st round players this and that I could easily see things maybe going wrong for my Tar Heels. I hope not. My moneys still tied up in this thing. Having a lot of respect for Villanova, more so then I had when I watched them lose to teams like UConn and Marquette.

    Gl this weekendpeace_5

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    • North Carolina (4-0, +63 margin of cover)

    • Villanova (4-0, +21 margin of cover)

    • Duke (3-1, +13 margin of cover)

    • Kansas (2-2, +18 margin of cover)

    Confessions of a Tarheel supporter.

    Truly worried about there game on Saturday, so much so that I hedged my bets except for NC to win it all at + $625 and +$475 .

    Dont believe in that destiny crap but just reading about all thee alumni in the stands (AGAIN) and 1st round players this and that I could easily see things maybe going wrong for my Tar Heels. I hope not. My moneys still tied up in this thing. Having a lot of respect for Villanova, more so then I had when I watched them lose to teams like UConn and Marquette.

    Gl this weekendpeace_5

     
    SKSports
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2022 - 1:32 PM ET #3

    Not concerned with the injury to Justin Moore? Was playing a hell of a tourney until he got hurt last game. 

    BOL. moneybagclover

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    Not concerned with the injury to Justin Moore? Was playing a hell of a tourney until he got hurt last game. 

    BOL. moneybagclover

     
    jpot34
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2022 - 1:42 PM ET #4

    @FRANKtheBANKss

     It only has value if it wins. Dangling high + values out to the betting public are usually sucker bets.

    6K GOLD/$150 SILVER/ Find JESUS!
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    @FRANKtheBANKss

     It only has value if it wins. Dangling high + values out to the betting public are usually sucker bets.

     
    getem9
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2022 - 2:41 PM ET #5

    @FRANKtheBANKss

     Agbaji is from KC.... no carpet bagger....my futures tickets are loaded with KU / Duke....UNC I hedged 5-1 and if Nova wins the whole thing then I'll be liquidated....Go Hawks and may Nova lose by 4 and the books get middled peace_5

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    @FRANKtheBANKss

     Agbaji is from KC.... no carpet bagger....my futures tickets are loaded with KU / Duke....UNC I hedged 5-1 and if Nova wins the whole thing then I'll be liquidated....Go Hawks and may Nova lose by 4 and the books get middled peace_5

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2022 - 3:29 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:

    @FRANKtheBANKss  It only has value if it wins. Dangling high + values out to the betting public are usually sucker bets.
    Value is not related to winning/losing. Value is proper odds vs elevated odds. 

    Extreme hypothetical example...Gonzaga at 50-1 to win the tournament. Obviously it didn't happen, but the value on the bet definitely would have been there.

     

    peace_5

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:

    @FRANKtheBANKss  It only has value if it wins. Dangling high + values out to the betting public are usually sucker bets.
    Value is not related to winning/losing. Value is proper odds vs elevated odds. 

    Extreme hypothetical example...Gonzaga at 50-1 to win the tournament. Obviously it didn't happen, but the value on the bet definitely would have been there.

     

    peace_5

     
    FRANKtheBANKss
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2022 - 3:37 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by SKSports:

    Not concerned with the injury to Justin Moore? Was playing a hell of a tourney until he got hurt last game.  BOL.
    Of course but KU has had a very easy road and Self has failed so often. KU hasn't been overly impressive besides the first 10 minutes of their last game. A very short handed Creighton team was able to score against them. I feel Jay Wright will have an answer to beat KU.  Duke at +$160 isn't value better to just bet them vs UNC if you think they win. Medvedev just went down an_cheers He doesn't like the heat and the Pole loves Miami.tennisball

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    Quote Originally Posted by SKSports:

    Not concerned with the injury to Justin Moore? Was playing a hell of a tourney until he got hurt last game.  BOL.
    Of course but KU has had a very easy road and Self has failed so often. KU hasn't been overly impressive besides the first 10 minutes of their last game. A very short handed Creighton team was able to score against them. I feel Jay Wright will have an answer to beat KU.  Duke at +$160 isn't value better to just bet them vs UNC if you think they win. Medvedev just went down an_cheers He doesn't like the heat and the Pole loves Miami.tennisball

     
    Canadianwhisky
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2022 - 9:08 PM ET #8

    @FRANKtheBANKss

     nice writeup  Nova is not to be taken lightly     The value is in UNC certainly capable but do not think they will win 

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    @FRANKtheBANKss

     nice writeup  Nova is not to be taken lightly     The value is in UNC certainly capable but do not think they will win 

     
     
    FRANKtheBANKss
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2022 - 12:19 PM ET #9

    @Canadianwhisky

     Yeah, you are probably right but just value.  Anything can happen nothing is set in stone just valuepeacepeace_5

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     Yeah, you are probably right but just value.  Anything can happen nothing is set in stone just valuepeacepeace_5

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