Little about me and my betting style, I have an analytics degree from a four year college and currently am in grad school. I usually don't bet on the line, but rather deviations of it that I feel present a statistical advantage given the odds they're offered at(rather + or -). This type of point system can be applied across all sports, however is most successful through NCAAB by a wide margin. So, for example, I felt that last night Duke would win by at least 3 points and that at +165 odds this would be considered an "optimal value". I took it, they won. This system would NOT work for someone who cannot buy significant amounts of points both ways on any given spread.
Tonight's play:
Siena ML (Or take +7 at Even Odds if you're scared) 2 units
Illinois -14.5 at Even Odds 3 units
(Coming out of these two picks, my model shows the end user with a 88% chance of at least +1 unit of profit after 10000 simulations)
Teaser: -140 Odds MAX PLAY
Siena +11
Illinois -9.5
(My model has this teaser as a virtual lock, more so than my teaser last night where both teams won ATS)
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Haven't lost a game this year! 2-0 to date
Little about me and my betting style, I have an analytics degree from a four year college and currently am in grad school. I usually don't bet on the line, but rather deviations of it that I feel present a statistical advantage given the odds they're offered at(rather + or -). This type of point system can be applied across all sports, however is most successful through NCAAB by a wide margin. So, for example, I felt that last night Duke would win by at least 3 points and that at +165 odds this would be considered an "optimal value". I took it, they won. This system would NOT work for someone who cannot buy significant amounts of points both ways on any given spread.
Tonight's play:
Siena ML (Or take +7 at Even Odds if you're scared) 2 units
Illinois -14.5 at Even Odds 3 units
(Coming out of these two picks, my model shows the end user with a 88% chance of at least +1 unit of profit after 10000 simulations)
Teaser: -140 Odds MAX PLAY
Siena +11
Illinois -9.5
(My model has this teaser as a virtual lock, more so than my teaser last night where both teams won ATS)
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