UVA -5

Question

Going against the grind. Feel free to call me an idiot if this doesn't hit. I'll beat you to the punch.

Situation: the bounceback. The first home game after every road loss has been a double digit victory, most recently against Louisville. This team responds well to losses. They are coming off a double overtime effort, but they hadn't played for several days before, so they'll be fine.

Matchup: Duke guards the perimeter well. Too bad UVA is one of the most efficient shooting teams inside the arc. I also expect UVA to have more control over the boards against Duke's soft front court. UVA can guard the three. The Hoos destroy Notre Dame every time because a team won't beat UVA behind the arc. UVA can also handle more athletic guards, as they dominated V Tech at home. So I am not worried about Kennard.

So UVA is more physical and efficient than Duke. They need to bounce back with a win at home before they have to go to Chapel Hill. Bennett has historically enjoyed significant success ATS against coach K. The line is also up from -4 to -5 despite the world being on Duke.

So I am that idiot who bets against the world. I never said I was a big shot (I'm answering another poster). I am a rookie gamble trying to learn how to win by adopting a contrarian bent. So please don't tail blindly, please don't rip me if this doesn't hit.

Last note, I am a UVA alumnus and fan but I just went against them at V Tech, so I am not biased.

BOL

ProudJagsfan · Answer

Going against the grind. Feel free to call me an idiot if this doesn't hit. I'll beat you to the punch.

Situation: the bounceback. The first home game after every road loss has been a double digit victory, most recently against Louisville. This team responds well to losses. They are coming off a double overtime effort, but they hadn't played for several days before, so they'll be fine.

Matchup: Duke guards the perimeter well. Too bad UVA is one of the most efficient shooting teams inside the arc. I also expect UVA to have more control over the boards against Duke's soft front court. UVA can guard the three. The Hoos destroy Notre Dame every time because a team won't beat UVA behind the arc. UVA can also handle more athletic guards, as they dominated V Tech at home. So I am not worried about Kennard.

So UVA is more physical and efficient than Duke. They need to bounce back with a win at home before they have to go to Chapel Hill. Bennett has historically enjoyed significant success ATS against coach K. The line is also up from -4 to -5 despite the world being on Duke.

So I am that idiot who bets against the world. I never said I was a big shot (I'm answering another poster). I am a rookie gamble trying to learn how to win by adopting a contrarian bent. So please don't tail blindly, please don't rip me if this doesn't hit.

Last note, I am a UVA alumnus and fan but I just went against them at V Tech, so I am not biased.

BOL

SystemStan · Answer

I certainly respect the reasoning  BOL Jags

BigPlayAK · Answer

I think the Hoos are the play as well. Duke is setting up to be the Covers 2/15 bloodbath

JFen31 · Answer

This is always one of my favorite matchups of the year.

If I was a UVA backer, I'd be concerned about two issues:

1) Duke's offense can spread out the pack-line. UVA's defense thrives on denying dribble penetration into the lane, thereby forcing contested jumpers late in the shot clock. Teams with a traditional low post presence often struggle mightily with UVA because the lane is so congested and every UVA defender has at least one foot below the three-point line at all times. Conversely, spread offenses like Duke - who don't need to play through a big guy - can negate this advantage. You saw it on Sunday night against VA Tech, when (out of necessity) the Hokies went super-small and started taking advantage of some cracks in the pack-line. Duke is built to do the same thing, especially since Coach K won't fall into the trap of allowing Bennett to bring the vaunted post-to-post double on the low block.

2) Virginia's lack of a penetrating scorer. Duke's defense continues to get shredded by hyper-athletic guards who can beat the slow-footed Duke backcourt off the dribble. Duke has no real rim protector this season, and guys like Dennis Smith and Bryant McIntosh have had their way at the rim. Problem is, UVA doesn't really have that guy. Perrantes is a tremendous PG and a crafty ballhandler, but he's not particularly athletic. Ditto for Shayok and Devon Hall, neither of whom are going to consistently beat anyone off the dribble. Coach K will be well-prepared for the myriad flex cuts and flare screens that Bennett runs, and I'm not convinced that UVA has the athleticism in the backcourt - nor the scoring prowess on the block - to exploit Duke's defensive deficiencies.

Looking forward to this one.

JFen31 · Answer

Regarding the last sentence in paragraph 1, if Bennett chooses to stick with his standard defensive principles (UVA almost always doubles the post entry from the backside), Duke has the shooters on the wings to make UVA pay for the double team. Do those shots consistently drop? Tough to say...

ProudJagsfan · Answer

JFen, I have answers for both points. In sum: UVA handled the dribble penetration of Tech a home and 2) I think UVA will thrive on second chance baskets and post play. In your view, is UVA -5 a stupid bet?

ProudJagsfan · Answer

I don&#x27;t think one should bet on Duke&#x27;s shots to all drop and to get into a rhythm when UVA will dictate a grinding tempo.

JFen31 · Answer

No bet is a stupid bet. There is always a case (of varying strength, of course) to be made for either side in any particular game. If you can&#x27;t formulate an argument for the other side of your preferred play (i.e. this play will lose if______________), then you shouldn&#x27;t be making that bet.

ProudJagsfan · Answer

Do my answers to your counter points make any sense?

ProudJagsfan · Answer

Sometimes the initial gut lean is right. UVA&#x27;s offense will buy them an early tourney exit again

JFen31 · Answer

This team misses Brogdon in the worst way. They&#x27;re entirely incapable of getting to the free throw line, it&#x27;s all jumpers, all the time.

CaptYossarian · Answer

Phenomenal insight on that writeup, JFen

Histprof71 · Answer

JFen with great, prophetic analysis as usual!

ProudJagsfan · Answer

I don&#x27;t get how this team is able to dominate at Louisville and at Notre Dame

ProudJagsfan · Answer

UVA will never attract guys who can score when their coach plays the most boring brand of basketball. Dang UVA was an amazing undergrad experience, but I almost applied to Duke and could&#x27;ve become a Dukie instead...

SystemStan · Answer

It&#x27;s all about the match-ups, just like JFen explained. No worries, we&#x27;ll bounce back tomorrow bro

UVA -5

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