Vegas vs Kenpom Tracking...

Question

I did this for a little while a the end of last season. It ended up being profitable but only like 55% winners. Not sure how long it will take to start working, or if it will even work at all. GOing to track the games for a little bit and see what happens.

The basis is simple. If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

beaverfan23 · Answer

I did this for a little while a the end of last season. It ended up being profitable but only like 55% winners. Not sure how long it will take to start working, or if it will even work at all. GOing to track the games for a little bit and see what happens.

The basis is simple. If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

beaverfan23 · Answer

St Johns -10 would be a play.  I may add that plays cannot be big public plays like this one, but we&#x27;ll see.

FlipsideRM · Answer

I don&#x27;t get it, Kenpom has st johns winning by 7..

beaverfan23 · Answer

The line opened at Jonnies -10. According to the criteria above, this is a large difference.

I am assuming the the oddsmakers know something that KenPom doesn't (this could be something that cannot be seen by looking at statistics like back to back games, bounce back from an embarassing loss, revenge, injuries....keep in mind that it is probably too early for this to work which is why I am only tracking for now)

Since the line opened 3 points higher than the KenPom prediction I will side with the oddsmakers and take St Johns -10. (Can get -8 at most places now)

Like I said, I may have to add something to do with not taking public favorites but we will see

BandosWB · Answer

beaver - been looking at this in CFB using Sap predictor.  It is a small winner after week 4.  When Vegas wants you to pay the premium, you pay it and win.  GL this season.

beaverfan23 · Answer

1-0 with the huge 2nd half from St Johns.

Megatron27 · Answer

beaver, can kenpom b used any other way other than spreads? meaning totals?

beaverfan23 · Answer

Of course, he tracks the number of possessions for each team and uses that for his "tempo" statistic.  The tempo combined with the offensive and defensive efficiency of each team are used to create his score projection.I actually think the books look at his number when they release the total because they are frequently the same number

beaverfan23 · Answer

Kenpom has StJohns -8 and the line opened at -12 (-12.5 at most places now)

St Johns -12 is the only play for Wednesday. Once again a huge public favorite

I would like to hear Stuckey's take on this one, I know he knows at least a little bit about Lehigh.

Megatron27 · Answer

Hello again Beaver, would you be able to provide an example of how kenpom could be used for betting totals with an edge as to the way we use it now for spreads. And btw i think thursday st j would be a pick again, yes??

beaverfan23 · Answer

I dont use the site to bet totals very often, but it could be useful by looking at some of the key statistics for each team.  One of the most important ones is tempo.  Offensive and defensive efficiency would also be very important in figure out a total.St Johns would be a play for WEDNESDAY, no games on thurs.

zamigo6 · Answer

I definitely think this is an interesting concept....but the way i see this one the public opinion is high on St. Johns right now after they pulled away in that game...don&#x27;t you think that is the reason the line is up from the statistics? i mean maybe later in the season vegas knows more than kenpom preseason but this is game two how much could have changed...St. Johns covered easy and then there spread grew a few points, everyone is still gonna take St. Johns...all that being said i like Lehigh tonight but I think there is something here worth investigating thanks for keeping track

beaverfan23 · Answer

Exactly why I am just tracking until everyone has played a few games

PINNACLE · Answer

BF--&#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;m not saying you&#x27;re wrong or trying to discourage you from your methodology, however, you said it yourself - " I did this for awhile at the END of last season."&#xD;&#xA;The disparity between the two (Kenpom / Oddsmakers) numbers takes on a completely different dynamic when you&#x27;re looking at the start of a season opposed to the end of a season.&#xD;&#xA;GL

Megatron27 · Answer

We really need a better way to communicate and share data like the computer group in vegas 1980 were billy walters got his start.. Im rolling with st johns 2nite. Lets go kenpom.

And pinnacle, i agree with what u write.

JDubs800 · Answer

Hang on a sec... if KP has STJ -8 and the Line is STJ -12, shouldn&#x27;t you be taking Lehigh &#x2B;12 due to the 4 point the wrong direction? Not sure the point of this system.

gbctx · Answer

Beaver, You are on the right track with your system. It needs some refinement and some patience. Power ratings need history to become precise however they are the basis for setting opening lines and deviation from those numbers should be scrutinized. Power rating sources are critical.

beaverfan23 · Answer

JDubs,St Johns is -12 according to the opening line, KP has Johns winning by 8.  This system is based on the thought that if the linesmakers are giving them that much more credit, they must know something about this game that can not be seen from KP&#x27;s statistics; so we side with the linesmakers and take St Johns -12.

beaverfan23 · Answer

If you have any ideas for refinement I am all ears.  Its not like this is MY system, its just an idea I had that I think might produce a profit in the long term.  You can make any alterations that you wish to make and if they provide more winners...please share with the rest of us!

gbctx · Answer

Beaver...please don&#x27;t take my comments as a slight.... I am an old guy and have lost / won many $ doing this. KenPom is a great source...but as the season progresses I have found that the Sagarin ratings are much more effective...especially when you get around to conference  tournament time. I calculate his ratings and predictor ratings as well as Pomeroy and look for deviances from the opening line. Alarms go off when I see a ranked (or obviously better team) at home with an opening line below the power rankings # (and even better when the line rises) and bet the dog. I have not seen correlation using either rating system when playing the favorite but have not looked at it so I am very interested in your systems results. GL

Vegas vs Kenpom Tracking...

Hot Forum Topics