Wed. 2/16/11 - Oklahoma St. @ Texas - Everything You Need To Know

Texas has the #1 defense in the nation.  #1 in Effective FG% at 39.9%.  #1 in 2P% at 39.3.  #3 in the nation in 3P% at 27.9%.

Now, I'm usually not a fan of OVERALL stats because it involves their non-conference schedule.  I think too many people look at trends and stats and don't explore the REAL story.  They may be all that I stated above, but CONFERENCE stats show a BETTER picture of how the team is doing playing teams more of their caliber.

In conference, there are many stats that get EVEN better than they are overall.  Can't really say much of the same for Oklahoma St.

Texas is even better in conference in 3P% at 23.2%, they shoot the 3-ball even better at 40.2%, and they're 2P% is 52.5%.

Texas very seldom gets blocked by other defenses and very seldom turn the ball over or get stolen from.

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Texas is 15-5 ATS, which means that they are EXCEEDING what oddsmakers believe they should be winning by at a rate of 3-1.

Oklahoma isn't UNDERACHIEVING compared to other teams that they've played, sitting at 10-8-1 ATS.

I hold ATS records highly, but these ATS records DO NOT conflict.  I like when the team I'm betting on is OVERACHIEVING while the other is a DISAPPOINTMENT to their expectations of analysts, fans, and most importantly,..oddsmakers.

In conference Texas has won by DOUBLE-DIGITS IN 9 OUT OF THEY'RE 10 CONFERENCE GAMES.  And their last game against Baylor was off by one point; they won by 9 points to Baylor.

The closest win after that was when they BEAT the Kansas Jayhawks ON THEIR COURT by 11 points.  That is DEFINITELY saying something about this Texas team.

NOW, AGAINST all that, there is Oklahoma St's margin of win/loses IN CONFERENCE.  Oklahoma St only had ONE really bad loss, which was against Texas A&M losing by 23 points.  Other than that, they've won some good games while only losing by SINGLE DIGITS. 

Where is Texas' weakness??  FREE THROWS.  Not they're strong point.  Texas shoots 64.5% in conf. and Oklahoma St. shoots 74% in conf.

I knew that a Texas team going 15-5 ATS would one day get INFLATED spreads, and THIS one seems to be just that.

Texas is favored at a spread of -15.  Can you see Texas winning by 20?  or Oklahoma losing by 10?

That's for YOU to decide because I'd PROBABLY favor Oklahoma St. against THIS spread, but then again, I DON"T BET AGAINST THE #1 DEFENSE IN THE NATION.

I'm just gonna watch and enjoy this game,..I'm not big on betting on Superbowl Coin Flips, no matter WHAT crazy trend you tell me.

Best Of Luck to Everyone.

TexasD

Actually I take that back, I think this spread is PERFECTLY done by the oddsmakers and I don't see this line moving anywhere.

BOL

I DID forget to mention they're previous meetin @ Oklhoma St. which would be infavor of Texas covering tonight.

Texas won by 15 on their court, so add in the home-court advantage points and Texas covers, but still not too sure about this spread cuz we would be only talking about ONE game there.

BOL

I'm taking Texas 1st half. They easily lead any team they play by DD going into the half in most of their games. Get'er done!

Texas' conference 1st half Points For is 37.2 and give up only 25.7 pts on defence.  That's an 11.5 avg margin of victory in the 1st half.  Oklahoma St's avg 1st-half margin in conf is -2.

The only time Texas was down at halftime was AWAY at Kansas. 

Out of the 10 conference games, they have been up by over 8.5  on 7 occassions; Kansas, Oklahoma, AND Oklahoma St. (away).

Texas' avg margin for the 2nd half in conf is 5.7 pts. 

Now that I've checked out the 1st-half stats and have watched Texas a few times get a little conservative with their leads, I'd have to say that the 1st-half line of -8.5 looks rather lucrative.

My play for this game is also Texas 1st-half -8.5

BOL

You know, the more I look at this game, it does start to stand out as Texas being a good cover.

Oklahoma St. shoots 25.5% from 3-pt land.  And against the #1 defence in the Nation, the #3 in the Nation in Defensive 3P%, and the #1 in Conference 23.2% 3P%, when Oklahoma St. falls behind to Texas in the 1st half, THEY AREN'T GONNA MAKE A COMBACK BY SHOOTING 3-POINTERS.

Maybe I'm starting to think that the Texas game line is better than I thought because I've felt like Texas was a Final Four team since beating the Jayhawks by 11 on their court,...but I did already take Texas 1st-half.  Texas 1st-half -8.5 is still the play.

BOL

Sorry I do most of my research outside of work and post a few times on my breaks.  Usually cover the Texas Longhorn games and any plays that I think are really good elsewhere.  I just glanced over that game thus far.

Texas has the #1 defense in the nation.  According to Covers.com, they ranked #2 in the nation in FG defense at 36.5%.  My stats say #1 in nation in Effective FG% Defense at 39.9. Not sure which is correct.

But what you do need to know is that Texas holds their victims to 59.7 ppg while scoring 75.8.  IN CONFERENCE they hold their opps to an even better 54.6 ppg while scoring 71.8 ppg.

IF I had to pick an O/U, which I don't very much, I'd go UNDER.

Texas' big D is hard to crack for over 60 pts and with Ok St. shooting only 25.5% from the arc while going up a TexasD that holds their opps to a #3 nationally 27.9% from the arc and #1 in conference at 23.2% from 3-pt land, don't look for Ok St. to try and catch up with the 3-ball.

Ok St. should be trying to catch up all game, and when Texas is up by 20+ (mostlikely), the under is hard to argue with when you don't have Ok St. fouling giving up in the closing minutes.  IF it were to be in the single digits, teams DO try to foul and put the team that is leading at the FT line (which Texas is not the strongest at) and hope they miss while trying to make up the deficit with baskets at the other end of the floor.

Oklahoma St. has a VERY slow-pace team while Texas likes to run a bit.

I'd lean the UNDER

BOL

TexasD

Sorry brother.  I guess my stats, write-ups, and philosophical theories of craziness are little too much for people.

BOL

Not sure what you mean.  I'm not even sure what Ok St's FG Made is.  R U talking the average buckets made overall? or their PPG?

I think the oddsmakers did good at picking this spread at 14.5/15.  The one deal that I do believe to be a solid bet is the 1st half line of Texas -8.5.  I just feel like Texas gets too comservative with a DD lead.  And at 15 Chalk, pretty expensive. 

Texas has won 20+ in four games (by 20, 20, 21, 31 pts).  The rest are by 9, 11, 13, 15, 16, & 16 points.

Texas has been up at half time by 7, 8, 11, 12,16, 16, 16, 16, & 25 pts.  They were down to Kansas by 12 pts at halftime.

BOL

Not a problem,..Right next to the topic of the thread there is a name.  If you see my name, then don't click on it.  It's THAT easy.  I spend a lot of time doing these write-ups and enjoy doing them also.  If you really think I'm just typing up what Covers.com already wrote, then DON'T CLICK ON MY THREADS.  If you didn't catch my post before, I said that I had conflicting stats compared to Covers.com.  I don't just copy and cut. 

But thanx for your insiteful information that you brought to the topic of "Oklahoma St @ Texas".  I guess some of you are just those type of people who like to make stupid comments because you are bored.  Comments that have NO RELEVANCE to the topic that you clicked on.

If you want to read my analysis of the stats that MOST people don't look at, the COMPARISONS of those stats/teams and the BREAK-DOWN of what the stats mean, stop on by.  If you don't wanna read it, don't click it.  Simple.

MOST people don't look into half the stats they read.  They look at a trend and bet a trend.  I BET ON TEAMS.  Just like the stupid-ass trend of Texas AT Texas A&M, and THAT trend ended JUST AS I CALLED IT.  Texas -1 against Texas A&M.

I LOVE "trends" actually.  They keep my lines low becuz of the public that bets them.

There are a lot of people who appreciate my threads.  DON'T CLICK HERE IF YOU DON'T.  Simple. 

But thanx for your input.  I'm sure FaceBook or Twitter would love for you to join.

BOL to everybody, and GL on whatever plays you make

This is what I DON'T like to here from a team:

"I don't want to be No.1"  --Tristan Thompson

"We don't want No. 1"  --Jordan Hamilton

I understand where they are coming from after what happened to Texas LASTY YEAR, but what does that mean besides that?!?!

Does that mean that they are AFRAID?

Does that mean that they don't want to win tonight?

Or IS IT, just that they don't want the jinx of BEING #1?

I would rather here something like, "We wanna be #1 in the country and we are ready to take on the pressure of being just that."

Anyone have an opinion on this?

I bring it up because there are people betting on Texas tonight, and what the team thinks/feels and what the players think/feel, means a lot; their "physchological-fitness" and well being.

Everyone knows that it's harder "physchologically" to go away and play on some other teams court in front of screaming fans, in an unfamiliar setting.  SOME teams are mentaly sound and can overcome such adversities.  SOME flounder and flop when they go away.

I'm just asking if Texas can have the POISE to take the #1 spot?

Can they handle the challenge and the "target on their back" of being #1.

Personally, IMO, I definitely think they can.  They've had the consistency throughout the season, the chemistry as a team, the defense to stop the best of them, and the unselfishness to play as a team.

Just wondering about the comments that they made.

BOL

Congrats to all you Texas 1st-halfers, Texas Spreaders, and Unders!

BOL

Quote Originally Posted by Skeptrix:

TEXAS to the final four!  oooh yeahh

Don't stop there!!  I have Texas +700 on their future bet to win the NCAA Tournament!  LOL