Wednesday 2/4/09 Locks and Leans

1/31/09
UAB vs Marshall // UAB -5  LOSS
Arizona St. vs Washington // OVER WIN
        1-1  L2

2/01/09
Duke vs Virginia // 1h Duke -12.5 WIN
South Florida vs St. Johns // 1h St. Johns -1.5 WIN
Portland St. vs Montana St. // Portland St. -4 LOSS
        2-1  L3

2/02/09
Niagra vs Iona // Niagra +2 WIN
Spurs vs Warriors // Spurs -4.5 WIN
Flames vs Avalanch // Flames LOSS (I'd blame pimp's Mom, but after lots of research this seemed like a lock!!! I should have just done the over lol)
Siena vs St. Peters // 1h Siena -6.5 WIN
Davidson vs w.Carolina // 1h Davidson -11 WIN
        5-1  L6

2/03/09
Purdue vs Ohio State // Over 129.5 WIN
UNC vs Maryland // 1h UNC -12.5 WIN
Nets vs Bucks // Under 195.5 WIN
Raptors vs Cavaliers // Cavaliers -10 // WIN
UNLV vs SDSt. // UNLV -5 Disappointing LOSS
Marquette vs Depaul // Marquette -11.5 WIN
Akron vs Eastern Michigan // Akron -8.5 WIN
        5-1  L6

     Total Since Starting:
     14-4  L18  77.7% WIN

Thanks again guys (especially Pimp/tmp/vclaw/manram/bird/kaponofor/tags(even though you hate this) and several others for all the help, support, and guidance. With that being said, here are my lock ins and leans for today.

LOCKED IN:
Tulsa vs Marshall //Tulsa -2  // 2u
-I took it as it popped up last night while I was blasted drunk after softball. I woke up and saw that I had made a bet, whichI'm glad I did it to be honest even though I didn't remember making it.The line looked simply too low. I realize its a home game for Marshall, but Tulsa's defense should beat Marshall alone. Marshall has a decent home record at 8-2, but Tulsa will be too much, not to mention Marshall lacks the defense to stop Tulsa from scoring almost at will.
I'm a UCF Graduate and follow UCF basketball as well as CUSA pretty closely. I for once had the confidence to pick UCF (a weak
road team) to beat Marshall (somewhat decent home team) in there house by 5. It went to overtime, but it was still a win. I don't think Tulsa will let it get to overtime because I feel they perform better than my Knights in general and are a much better road team.
Summary: I anticipate a Tulsa win by 6 or more. (probably 8+)

Memphis vs SMU   //Memphis 1st Half -9.5 // 2u
I'd love to give you a long reason for this one but its pretty simple:
- SMU IS BAD (Both Home and Away)
- UCF beat them 70-45 (UCF was a home game but that's still a masacre especially for us)
- I never feel comfortable betting whole game spreads that are close to 20 (this one is -17) Which is the reason why I always try and get the 1h bet for teams like Duke/UNC/etc... Especially if they trend on starting strong on inferior teams.
- Never leave it up to free throws at the end with Memphis LOL ;)

UCF vs Houston // UCF -3 // 2u
-As stated previously I'm a recent alumni of the fine University of Central Florida. I know our team very well and they seem to be playing their hearts out right now. With an impressive overtime win at Tulane which actually covered the spread (thank god), UCF is showing the heart to stick in and fight to score points when they need them most. They are hard to beat at home and always have a strong fan support which always helps.
-Houston is fading and after running the numbers I anticipate a 6-10 point loss for them.
-Knights win by at least 5
NOTE: The o/u is currently 145 Playing the OVER wouldn't be a bad play either. There is about a 70% chance they will hit the OVER.

I've avoided the NBA because my sports betting mentor told me it was rigged. I've thrown a few stones and they've been landing. So until it fades I'm going to keep on playing what I think looks like a decently strong play.

NBA Lakers vs Raptors // Lakers -8 // 1u
- Raptors are getting too much emotional coverage about Bosh
- Raptors aren't playing well
- Kobe can cover the 8 points by himself
- Cleavland covered -10 last night
The Over on this game seems pretty popular as well. I'm guessing its because the Knicks don't play much defense.

LEANS:
Boston College vs Viginia // BC -2.5
-Viginia (7-10 Total 6-5 Home) vs BC (17-6 Total 5-3 Away) BC isn't a pushover on the road and Virginia isn't impressive at home.
-I'm may stay away from this game though. After running a few predictive algorithms on teamrankings.com It keeps saying there is around a 55% chance or more that Virginia will cover. Even if the spread is lower than 2.5. Requires more research.

Dayton vs LaSalle // Over 132
Disclamer: I'm not a Expert on the style of LaSalle or Dayton basketball.
-Dayton's defense holds a impressive 58.3 average points against per game and has a fairly strong offensive force.
-LaSalle doesn't have as strong of a defense, however they are very solid in the scoring department.
-I'm pretty sure due to it being a conference battle, La Salle will try and push a fast pace game to disrupt and not allow Dayton to setup on defense knowing how much of a strength that is for them.
-La Salle's key player likes to cut to the basket to and dish it out as well as shoot the three. This style should create more baskets than Dayton is used to seeing.
-LaSalle may win this and both teams should reach the 70 point mark or more.


VCU vs UNC Wilmington // VCU -16
-No defense = lots of points.
-VCU wins HUGE

LSU vs Georgia // LSU -6  (maybe first half bet would be great if I can get that offered to me????)
-Need to check LSU injuries (3 guys probable? Are they significant?)

W.Michigan vs Bowling Green // OVER 122.5

Auburn vs Old Miss // UNDER 142.5

Utah vs TCU // Utah -4.5
-Utah is just better and good enough to do this.

Notre Dame vs Cincy // OVER 143.5

Missouri vs Texas // OVER 148

I realize this is a lot of games and I don't plan on playing all of them!
I'm open to constructive criticism. Just don't be a spelling or grammar nazi!!

BOL TO ALL! 

Northeastern -8 is starting to look mighty tastey... Would anyone object to this being a 3 or 4 unit play? Or is it not as good as I think it is.

Just decided to do it. Why not?! Looks solid!

Northeastern -8 // 3.5u

Hey UCF grad
I got UCF and Northeasern and if both hit look into Nebraska laterGL

Damn this is a lot of reading!!!! 

Thanks Chess! Will do!

Sorry tmp, I'm hoping I won't have to do as much writing in my up coming post. I just felt like people would be more inclined to listen to what I had to say if they knew where I was coming from as well as how I've been doing. Not to mention I'm quite new to the scene and I need to give extra information that what is probably needed to earn a little respect/street cred/etc...

I'm going out for nickel beers at 5 till 6 and then heading to the UCF game at 7. GO KNIGHTS!! I wish everyone the best and I hope it hits.

Cameron, I honestly can't make up my mind on a POD. My biggest bet was 3.5 units on Northeastern. I suggest finding one that you feel comfortable with. Tulsa, UCF, LSU 1st half, and Memphis 1st half all look pretty good to me.

sorry :-/ All my future pics will be short and sweet until asked why I did it. This was pretty much a 1 time deal.

Yea that was one of my weaker bets, but I figured I'd give it a shot. Toronto fell for me last night, maybe they'll fall again. I put half my winnings from the Cavs game with them last night on this one. Good luck with everything!