75-72
Cleveland St -4.5 (Vikings have the best offense in the Horizon and 3rd best defense. N Kentucky has struggled since conference play started, shooting 45% 2PG and an abysmal 60.8% from the FT line. Bad shooting is rarely corrected on the road so giving 4.5 looks like the pick here.)
Samford -5.5 (The Bulldogs have dominated the SoCo lately and their metrics align with that dominance. Nationally, they have the third best effective FG% and stand at nearly 58% in conference. Mercer, on the other hand struggles to defend and shoot. Even though Samford likes to shoot the three and Mercer does ok defending these (35.8& D), the numbers show a sizeable advantage for the Bulldogs.)
Michigan St -11.5 (MSU as a home favorite of 10+ is a sizeable trend to cover. They've covered every time this year which is good enough for me.)
Omaha -4.5 (The Mavericks come in with a 4-0 record vs Denver at 0-4. I'll admit, I don't know the Summit that well but 4.5 looks like a bad line. Omaha has been lights out shooting in conference play while Denver is the opposite. On top of that Denver struggles defending the 2PG - 7th worst nationally. This one looks too easy, but I am just hoping it's a bad line. What could go wrong ....)
Best of luck today.
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