Wednesday CBB Plays

CBB Season Record 43-22-1  (67.0%)

2-1 yesterday.  Tenn should have been a no play, since Arkansas lost their SEC opener, I knew they would be trying hard.  A lesson learned.

#1. Vandy -5 over Auburn

This game looks very similar to my play yesterday on Kent State over Ball State.

Vandy (7-6) owns Auburn (10-3) winning the past 10 meetings and what is even more impressive is that while doing so they have gone (9-1) ATS, which is a 90% cover rate.

Looks funny that a (7-6) team is favored -5 over a (10-3) team, but this makes perfect sense to me.

Don’t let Vandy’s (7-6) record concern you too much, because they are (5-1) at home and they have played on of the TOUGHEST schedules in the Country and have a RPI of 59 compared to Auburn at 86.

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Vandy is ranked #14

Auburn is ranked #157 – no surprise they are (10-3)

As stated above, Vandy has won the past 10 meetings and the following are the margins of victory in each game: 29, 18, 8, 8, 7, 12, 30, 17, 8 and 7 points.  WOW – in every one of these games Vandy would have covered the -5 point spread.

In the 5 home games Vandy has won by an average of 16 points.

• Auburn is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Vandy

• The favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings

• Auburn is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. the SEC

•  

  When you find a situation like this it is hard not to make a large move on the game.

   

  I am on Vandy to extend this streak and cover the -5 points at home.

   

  BOL!

Corrected Record 44-22-1

Went 2-1 yesterday and only gave myself credit for 1 win.  Sorry!

#2.  Oklahoma State -1.5 over Texas

I subscribe to the theory that good teams respond strong after a loss and even stronger after a “beat down” and that is just what Oklahoma State (10-3) got from #7 W. Virginia in their last game.

• Oklahoma State is 4-0 ATS in last 4 games following a SU Loss

   

  Winning this game tonight is especially important to the Cowboys, because they are 0-1 in the Conference and their next game is at #2 ranked Baylor (13-0).

   

  Forget about the “look ahead” they will be totally focused on a very winnable Conference road game tonight.

   

  If you have watched Texas (7-6) play this year, they have plenty of talent, but their play and teamwork is very chaotic and wild at best. 

   

  There is no question which team is better.  Oklahoma State (10-3) has a RPI of 58 while Texas (7-6) is down at 148.

   

  Texas is also vulnerable at home with losses to Kent State, yes Kent State by 5 points (58-63) and UTA by 11 points (61-72).

   

• Oklahoma State has some really quality road games and wins:

   

  Won at Wichita by 17 (93-76)

  Won at Tulsa by 4 (71-67)

  Won (neutral court) UConn by 8 (98-80)

  Won (neutral court) Georgetown by 27 (97-70)

  Lost at Maryland by 1 (70-71)

   

  Also, Texas will be a little short-handed at the Guard position tonight with Yancy out who averages 7 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assist per game.

   

  -Okla. State is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Texas

  -Okla. State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite

  -Favorite in 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these teams

   

  I am taking the Cowboys -1.5 to do a little “herd job” on the Longhorns tonight.

   

  BOL!!!

   

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

That's two ...I'm already on !!! Gl !!

Glad to hear you found some value in both of these.  I am trying to be very selective with a goal to "bet all winners".  Might have one more, but not forcing anything.  BOL!

Quote Originally Posted by philliple2016:

that it. two for me...... im tailing u like a stalker. 

BOL

LMAO....that's funny......let's go 2-0!!!

Thanks for the advice.......I stayed away, but it sure was tempting.