Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 35-25, +31.10
February Leans: 39-35
Back in early January, UNI was in the middle of a Missouri State/Wichita State sandwich and went to Bradley as a 10 point favorite. They had a 12 point lead at the half, then just fell apart. They actually gave up a 50+ point half to Bradley in the second stanza and walked out of Peoria with a loss. Bit of a look ahead to the home meeting with Wichita State, which resulted in a much better showing and a 3 point loss. Bradley has stayed within single digits on the road in only one game in conference play. Aside from that, the only game Bradley cares about the rest of the year is the home revenge meeting with rival ISU for the war on 74. Seems like a rather large letdown spot, and UNI does have something to play for. If they can win out, there is a good chance they avoid the first day of the conference tourney and their last two come against bottom feeders. Bradley’s also without Brown here as he leads the team in possessions, shot attempts, and getting to the foul line. He’s also the only guy on the roster that can create his own shot, and if you can’t create a shot against the UNI defense, you aren’t going to get any good looks in your sets. Also got Bradley zone against a good shooting team in UNI who is coming off the havoc at VCU, so these open shots should fall tonight. Could go on and on, just doubt Bradley gets off the bus.
5* Northern Iowa -15.5
Another revenge spot here, but this time I’m going to go with it as the first time these two teams played, they are now going in opposite directions. Coming into the year, I never once thought I’d play Toledo as a favorite, but they’ve impressed me. And on the other side of the ball, CMU’s been terrible. They have three conference victories with two coming against Eastern Michigan and the other coming against this Toledo squad in the home opener where Toledo hadn’t played a game in 10 days. Both teams play zone, Toledo shoots it well and attacks, CMU does neither of those well at all. One team (Toledo) brings in motivation of having just completed their first winning road trip since 2007, and the other (CMU) comes in having just lost to one of the worst teams in the country at home. Toledo has been going with a bigger lineup, getting Wonnell involved in the paint with his size, and it’s paid this zone defense dividends, and will be a key in the matchup tonight with Ziegler trying to get into the lane. Wonnell didn’t play the first meeting, and his size will be a benefit tonight. If CMU can beat me from the outside on the road, I’ll take the loss (they’re shooting 29% from the arc on the road in conference).
5* Toledo -5.5
No real spot here, just some things I’ve alluded to in the past. UCF isn’t all that great in the up and down game, which is certainly a plus here if Rice can push the tempo which is what they like to do. Also getting a UCF team that’s going to score outside of its normal self having Rice’s interior defense pretty much neutralizing Clanton. If UCF isn’t getting enough second chance opportunities, they become pretty one dimensional and the guards will have to beat me tonight. UCF’s been winning some close ball games because of those “extra” opportunities they get. Tonight, those are taken away, and they’ll have to hit some jumpers to win this one. Like the home pup here, regardless of style. If the game gets sped up, UCF bigs are taken out of it. If the game’s slow, I’ll take my chances with Rice on the interior. UCF’s probably a bubble team, pressure is on them to get the win. Rice coach Braun going for win #600.
5* Rice +1.5
I’m playing West Virginia on the road with about a week of prep time to prepare for a possible burn offense they’ve had success with in past years facing. Notre Dame has won eight in a row, but they come into this game off their highest possession game of the streak and also come in off OT. In the first meeting this year, WVU was coming off high pace Providence in OT (where three starters played 40+ minutes), and only got to the foul line an uncharacteristically low 3 times. This should be another low scoring physical battle, and I think the points hold value. Nice spot for revenge, and I trust Huggins facing a team for the second time in a season to come through.
3* West Virginia +3
I’m playing Ohio, unfortunately. MAC East teams within the conference are 4-15 on the road, hoping that 4 becomes a 5 tonight. Both teams are going to have ample opportunities to score from the three point line tonight, the only difference is Ohio will be shooting those against the zone. The Ohio defense is the toughest Buffalo will have faced this year, and this will be the second time they’ve faced it (lost the first meeting 60-52). So, Buffalo does have revenge here, just not sure how they’re going to hit from the perimeter on the Ohio pressure, and if they aren’t hitting from the perimeter then I’m not sure how they win. Buffalo’s going to have a big advantage in the paint, but again, the relentless pressure on the outside makes it tough to even get it in there. On the offensive side of things, Ohio should have some open shots, but they do penetrate well which is what I want against any zone. Non-complacency from the arc and some guys who can attack, teams that have beaten Buffalo this year have done this well. As an added bonus, Buffalo had to travel to South Dakota for their bracket-buster. Spot where scheme outweighs the revenge, I hope.
2* Ohio +3
Lean: Temple -2
Lean: Northeastern +3.5
Lean: UTEP +2
Lean: UC Riverside PK
GL
0
'd on Toledo!!!
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