Wednesday play...

28-16 (+11.4 UNITS)

1-2 last Wednesday (1-1 in the New Mexico game with a loss at -11 and a win at -7.5)

Fresno State +4 (1 UNIT) - Colorado is coming off a dissappointing loss at Kansas in blowout fashion. After getting off to a nice start they have lost 2 of 3 with the 2 losses coming in their only 2 true road games. They will be back on the road tonight where they are only 8-16 ATS over the last couple of years. They are 7-18 SU over the last 25 so this team has struggled to close the deal on the road. This Colorado team is interesting in that they rank highly in the % of points they get from the FT line. They are 8th in FTA/FGA as well but looking at their ranking rely heavily on getting to the line and if Fresno can keep them from getting to the line often they will have a chance at the win tonight. Colorado is a solid 3PT shooting team (38.6% - 34th) but only 251st in % of points they get from the 3PT line. Frenso is 244th in FTA/FGA defense which is a major issue in this game. They are 25th in 3PT% defense and they employ a very slow pace to their game (304th in adj tempo). This will likely be a game where Colorado will be forced to score by penetration and/or getting to the line and going on the road and expecting to have an advantage at the FT line is expecting a lot.

Fresno isn't a good offensive team. They are 290th is effective FG%. They don't get a lot of points inside the paint but like Colorado they do a good job of getting to the line. The one thing I like about the matchup with Colorado tonight is that Colorado doesn't turn the opponent over (300th in TO% defense) and Fresno 's steal% offense is 5th which tells me they should be able to run their sets and they should keep Colorado from getting easy points off turnovers.

This Fresno team is 6-2 ATS this year. They are getting points at home against a team that has struggled on the road and by looking at their box scores will need to the FT often if they want to win.

Colorado's wins:

Wofford 28-36 FT's

Dayton 14-24

Baylor 4-18 (not sure what happened here but only scored 60 points)

Murray 27-36

AFA 22-28

TX Southern 33-44 (still needed OT at home)

Colorado St 18-31

Losses:

Wyoming 12-15

Kansas 12-21

In what should be a slow game where points are at a premium I will take the point and gamble on Colorado not being able to get to the FT as much as they want to.

Speirs

Pasteur lets get this

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Post like this make me want to empty my bank account on Fresno St. As if it is as easy as saying team A is the better team and more motivated and will cover! If Colorado covers it will be because they got their opportunities at the line and more than likely hit a good percentage of 3PT's. I like to bet against teams on the road that have trouble scoring in the paint and Colorado fits that description. Fresno (as I stated in the writeup) is a poor offensive team but their defense has been solid all year. Colorado has been pretty poor on the road over the last few years.

Colorado on the road:

2011-2012 They had 4 road wins. They were @ AFA +2, USC +1.5, Arizona St -3, Utah -10.5. The average kenpom rankings of those teams were 239. The year prior they had two road wins. One was @ Cal St Bakerfield and the game wasn't lined. The other game was at Kansas St. as a 10 point dog.

This is a pretty young Colorado team and after the performance the last two road games the road woes of the past are at the front of the minds of this Colorado team.

line dropped to +1 yacker would u still play it at that or hold off for hopefully better line later tonight?  And if you would hold off what would the line have to be to play it?

thanks.