Wednesday play...

41-25 (+14.55 UNITS)

1-0 on New Year's Eve with a ML and ATS winner with Denver

Wyoming -4.5 (1 UNIT) - Yes I know that Luke Martinez is out for the Cowboys. He is a great 3PT shooter and Wyoming gets very little from its bench but with Martinez I would think this line would be 8.5 or 9 and this line has been adjusted too much. They will attack the basket a little more and get to the FT line where they have lived all year long. Defensively they should be able to turnover SMU. Wyomimg does a great job of limiting looks from 3PT range (they give up a high % but they are 7th in % of points from 3PT) and SMU gets very little from the 3PT line. SMU could get some 2nd chance points but at the end of the day this Wyoming team is better and they are a MAJOR step up in competition for SMU.

Leans:

UT Arlington +5 (Come on public drive this up to 7 or so)

Colorado St -12

GA Southern +13

Auburn +4 (love Auburn's matchup defensively with FSU but can they score enough)

Yes they have scored better but they are taking a major step up in competition on Wednesday night. Since the close loss at BC they have scored much better but those defenses were not close to what FSU will bring to the table and in no way are they as athletic as FSU. The one exception to that was Illinois but AU was 11-23 from 3PT range in that one. Just the game before they were 3-23 against Winthrop in a home loss. Sullivan was 5-12 against Illinois but has had a poor year shooting the ball. One thing that I like about the matchup with FSU is that FSU is a poor defensive rebounding team and Illinois isn't very good either on the defensive glass. AU is a pretty good offensive rebounding team and second chance points could allow them to hang around. One other situational deal is that FSU opens the ACC season on the road at Clemson on Saturday while AU has a week off before playing LSU in their SEC opener. I do wonder if FSU brings the energy needed to win on the road. Also FSU won by 30 at home last year but AU beat FSU at home 2 years ago and played them tough the year before on the road. I have almost talked myself into liking this play quite a bit after writing this but I would love for some favorable line movement.

Quote Originally Posted by 2fade:

Sup yack

Line just dropped to 3.5 at the Hilton, any cause for concern??

I never like to see RLM but in this case I think it is reaction to Martinez's injury. He is on a team that ranks 328th in bench minutes. He leads the team in 3PT shooting and has taken the most FG attempts on the team. He is an important player for sure but like I said above I think with him in the lineup they are a 9-10 point road favorite. He isn't worth that much of a line adjustment IMO and not many players are. I will likely add a unit at 3.5 if it stays there much longer. SMU will struggle to take care of the ball against a Wyoming defense that ranks 12th in TO% defense. Earlier in the year I wrote that I liked Wyoming against Denver as a 9 or 10 point favorite for the simple fact that they win the FT battle. The diffrence in that game was the difference in points scored at the FT line. SMU lives at the line as well with the big difference that Wyoming is much better than SMU of limiting their opponents opportunities at the line. Also SMU has played the 332nd ranked SOS in the nation. This is by far their toughest game of the year. Wyoming is 31st in KP rankings. The two highest ranked teams that SMU has played to this point are Utah (161) and Wagner (167). They have played Utah twice and split (winning at home) and lost to Wagner on a neutral floor. Something to keep in mind is that Utah is one of the worst teams in the country at turnover defense and that is one of the big reasons I like Wyoming at a pretty short line tonight. SMU is 5-0 at home. Cause for concern? Not at all. Check out this home schedule so far: LMU (184), Malone (?), Rider (210), Utah (161), Furman (330). That is WEAK! This SMU team has losses to Wagner, URI, UALR, and Utah. Those games were away from home but with the students still out I think the HCA will be minimal tonight. SMU will likely have to knock down some 3PT shots to stay close. Are they capable? Yes they are 7th in 3PT shooting% but they are 337th in 3PA/FGA offense so they get good looks from 3PT range without relying on them. Wyoming defends the interior very well and they do it without fouling and that is a problem for SMU.

The Auburn/FSU line has gone down to 3.5. That is sharp movement. The ML play is +145 right now and I think that is the play here. I will wait til tip to see if the public pushes the number up but according to covers about 70% of the action is on FSU right now.

Little cause for concern in the Colorado St RLM. There is nothing to like here for UTEP. The matchup by the numbers isn't very good. I actually looked at this game initially to back UTEP but Colorado St has some big advantages and their efficient offense should be able to run their stuff without much interference from UTEP. UTEP would have to shoot a high% because the glass will be owned by the Rams.

Why do I like UTA tonight? I went against them against Denver on NYE but tonight the matchup is much better. For one they won't be facing the Princeton offense and two they won't be playing at a snail's pace like they had to in their last outing. The Denver game only had 53 possessions but we should get close to 70 tonight. UTA is bad offensively and rank near the bottom in a lot of stats. Turnovers are one their biggest issues and Boise does a pretty good job at turing the oppoent over. That is my biggets concern. Boise's 2PT defense isn't good and they don't block shots. UTA does a great job on the offensive glass. They will look to get it inside tonight by driving to the hoop. UTA is very good defensively and Boise is a team that likes the 3PT shot. I like to fade jump shooting teams on the road especially against a team that ranks 26th in 3PT% defense. Boise will need to generate quite a bit of offense off their defense tonight. UTA is coming off the embarrassing loss to Denver and looking to get on track before WAC play starts on Wednesday. Boise on the other hand is in the middle of a joke of a stretch of games. They don't open conference play until next Wednesday and that is against unbeaten Wyoming. Since their win over instate rival Idaho they have played New Orleans and Corban. After their game tonight they play Walla Walla. Huh? This is a stretch of schedule that can make a team relax.

I have no idea what this means but the reason for the movement is the reaction to an injury.

Just for Fun ML Parlay:

Auburn/UTA ML Palray +538 (1/4 UNIT)

Quote Originally Posted by riccio14:

I locked in a bad # on Wyoming too by grabbing it too early....had -3.5 and they missed front end of one and one with :04 seconds left

GL on continuing the strong season

Yeah I thought that I was going to catch a break there at the end. They missed another FT with 12 seconds left too. Nice hit tonight on total.