Wednesday plays...

105-74 (+31.65 UNITS)

Jackson State +10 ( 1 UNIT) - I had a long ass writeup but I hit the wrong button and lost it. DAMN IT! I played Jackson State last week against MVSU and lost but I believe we are getting value on Wednesday. I bet MVSU doesn't make 14-29 from 3PT range again. I think Jackson State can win SU but I expect a close game either way. The talent separation isn't that much between these two teams. The thing I like is that Jackson State has the ability to hang with MVSU on the glass and that is an advantage that MVSU usually has against every opponent in the SWAC. Here is my writeup from last week:

Both Jackson State and MVSU played brutal NC schedules. Jackson State's was the #1 NCSOS and MVSU was #2 NCSOS. MVSU has been much better in the league seeing they have gone unbeaten through 16 games. Jackson State is only 5-10 but this is too many points for MVSU. Their first meeting at MVSU was a close game. MVSU won 60-54 at home. Neither team shot over 38% in the first game. Jackson State got outscored at the FT line by 7 and got outrebounded 42-28. Despite those numbers and playing on the road they managed to hand around before losing by 6. MVSU is the best rebounding team in SWAC play but Jackson State is the second best rebounding team in SWAC play. This is a game of contrasting styles. MVSU is the fastest tempo team in the SWAC and Jackson State is the slowest. The first meeting saw 69 possessions and the predicted total tonight is 66. I lean UNDER but this total opened at 135 and immediately went down to 126. It is currently 127. The total line movement has me believing that Jackson State will control pace of play. MVSU is in the second game of a three game roadie to end the season. Despite the blow out of Grambling in their last game MVSU has been involved in close games over the last couple of weeks. The four games prior to playing Grambling (the SWAC's worst team) were decided by 3, 2, 5 , and 8 points. Going unbeaten in any league is very hard to do and the pressure of doing so may be affecting their play. I will take 6.5 points tonight and I look for Jackson State to end the unbeaten streak for MVSU tonight.

Adding more to this play. The more I look at this the more I like it. Last year the #1 beat the #8 50-45. In 2010 the #8 beat the #1 in the SWAC tourney. Again I keep coming back to rebounding. MVSU pounds people on the glass in conference play but Jackson State can hang with them on the glass. I get the feeling that the public sees a 17-1 conference team that won on the road against this same team last week by 9 and assumes that winning by 10 should be easy.

Jackson State +10 (2.5 UNITS) I will have a 1/2 UNIT on the ML as well.

Jackson State only plays one guy more than 60% of the game. They are 17th in bench minutes% according to Ken Pom. There is no reason about one or two guys that may not play. If they win this game or at least cover it will be because they control tempo and take care of rebounding the basketball.

Current Card:

Jackson State  +10 (2.5 UNITS)

Jackson State ML +400 (.5 UNITS)

UConn -2 (1 UNIT)

Jackson State  +10 (2.5 UNITS)

Jackson State ML +400 (.5 UNITS)

UConn -2 (1 UNIT)

Great start to the day!

Stepping out until around 8 or so. I believe this will be my final card.

UConn -2 (1 UNIT)

Jackson State  +10 (2.5 UNITS)

Jackson Statet +10.5 (.5 UNIT)

Jackson State ML +400 (.5 UNIT)

Weber State +5 (1 UNIT)- The dogs are performing well in these championship games and I bet that Weber doesn't go 3-26 from 3PT line again like they did a few days ago in their loss to Montana. This is a team that shoots around 40%.

Villanova +2 (1 UNIT) - Love the way they played last night and I feel a tight effort from USF with an NCAA berth on their mind.