Wisky @ Michigan State

Caveat everything with me being a biased MSU fan.  But numbers are not biased.

Wisc 1-5 ATS last 6 games
Wisc 1-6 ATS last 7 on the road
Wisc 2-9 ATS last 11 vs MSU
Wisc 1-9 ATS last 10 @ MSU

MSU 5-2 ATS last 7
MSU 8-1 SU & ATS last 9 @ home

Wisky's once dominant front line has faded over the past month.  Koenig returned from injury last game 2 OSU and had a monster game, but Wisky was rolled by an NIT team.  Their offense appeared out of sorts at times as if adjusting to Koenig's return.  Wisky has not played well on the road or at home lately.  They don't pass the eye test of late.  That said, with Purdue's loss yesterday, a Wisky win ties them for first in the conf, so they should have plenty of motivation playing for a banner.

MSU is young, turnover prone, and inconsistent.  But they've been consistently successful @ home ATS in Big 10 play.  Their front line is depleted from preseason injuries, so they don't rebound like typical MSU teams and they struggle vs quality front courts like Purdue.  If Wisky's front court is unable to exploit this MSU weakness, I see trouble for Wisky again.  MSU has struggled with its half court sets all year being a young team.  Last game vs Nebraska they pushed the pace a lot more and tried to get shots in transition before the D was set.  This led to 88 points vs a Nebraska KenPom Def #63.  This could've been great prep for this game vs Wisky who is well known for their quality half court defense which MSU should try to avoid by pushing pace and getting buckets in transition.  Some may say MSU will be hurt by senior guard Eron Harris' second game being missed due to season ending knee injury.  I've watched MSU all year.  I believe Harris' absence will allow the younger guys a clearer path to take over the team.  I don't see a drop off in performance and this was definitely the case when MSU crushed Nebraska in their first game without him.

I'm on MSU +3 and O129

BOLTA

Yes I was also surprised/impressed by the amount of points they put up on Nebraska, also given the return of Morrow for Nebraska, another forward. I like them to control tempo at home and i'll probably tail you. Thanks for the awesome write-up. One of my best friends is a big Sparty fan so I watch them a lot too. I don't think they'll miss Harris as they have enough depth in their back court. When Bridges was out, May really stepped up, and I think that leads to their front court being somewhat underrated, even if they vastly fail to compare to Purdue. Wisconsin's front court is not Purdue, not as big or physical. I usually try to back teams coming off losses against teams coming off of wins, but I think this is a good chance for Sparty to take advantage of a struggling Wiscy, who really just barely beat Nebraska and Rutgers on the road, teams which MSU annihilated at home, and add a big win to their tournament resume. 

Meh Michigan beat Wiscy at home and that was a very low scoring game. Michigan State also shoots so much better at home, that's another plus.

Someone is steaming wiscy...not sure what to think.

Awesome hit to complement the deep write-up bro, go Sparty