Write-up on ODU/Dayton

Here is the problem though ODU has yet to play for 40 minutes against a high quality opponent. The last 5 minutes of the game will be owned by DAY and if this is a tight game ODU will end up losing by 10+. Straight from the site...

Dayton has played its best basketball this season in the final five minutes of regulation, out-scoring its opponents 88-62. The Flyers are shooting 25-of-54 (.463) from the floor, 9-of-23 (.391) from beyond the arc and have a 2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio (16 assists and seven turnovers). Defensively, UD is limiting opponents to 15-of-38 shooting (.395), 2-of-12 from three (.167) and have forced 15 turnovers in that span.

With the teams they have played this is amazing. They have played some top notch competition. False steam on this game also.

I have followed this closely over the last year or so and these are type of spots that have cost me a ton of money. Anyways when a big public play is gettting hit hard with the percentages we see and it drops 1 to 2 points+ 6+ hours before tip it is typically a false line move. The books only option to even out the money is to drop it. By raising DAY to -8 people are going to follow the line. But by dropping it early they see the RLM and think its sharp but its the books playing mind games. Line movements only mean somethnig a half hour or so before tip . I could be way off but I am 3-1 in college hoops so far picking these out this year with ZONA being the last one.  Hope that helps.

This game is going to be a slugfest.

I feel about as good as I can about ODU +5.5. I don't have a choice considering I locked it in late last night before the weird line move.  I think it's the best side on a crappy board.   My math loves ODU too.

 I usually do not take the team that I think CAN get blown out, but I'll make an exception here.  If Dayton starts rattling off the highlight reel dunks and they make a few threes in front of the home crowd, this will be a long night for ODU.  

It takes some programs time to transition from "hunter" to "hunted" (I.e., Butler, Clemson) and I think you may be starting to see that out of Dayton this year.  They tend to rush their offense in big games, take bad shots and rely too much on the three-ball (the Ga. Tech game comes to mind - which they won.  They also had their chances against 'Nova).  They are not playing like the experienced team that they are.

This is a big game for ODU and I think we'll see a good effort from them.  ODU has been trying to get their program over the hump for a few years now and tonight is a good night to do that.  They bring 5 starters back and they have a big team that can handle Dayton's athletes.  They generate a fair number of turnovers and Dayton tends to turn it over in big games with their propensity to look for the spectacular play.  I can't see Dayton beating them badly on the inside either.

Actually tonight's win makes it 24 in a row at home...Props also to UNCforever, he was right on with the "false steam" call.

Dayton is a tough team home or away.  They scrap.

This game was lost in the first half when ODU couldn't convert all of those turns into points. . .

Back at it tomorrow and congrats to everyone who had the winner tonight.