Posted:
#1
After the knowledge I have gained over the years from cappers on this forum I think that this line is probably the perfect line for the books. I have posted this as a reply to another posting but I would like input from forum members on their take of my thoughts
I think with a healthy bench Cincy would have been favored by 5-7 pts with it rising as I am sure alot of ppl would have been on the home team and it would have rose to 7 maybe 7.5
That being said I think that due to the injury to one of Xaviers most vital contributor that could and should add 3 to 4 pts to the line as the line would moved to 8-10.5. I think that by looking at performance and this year and the strengths and weakeness of both teams Cincy should win by 10-11.
Given that today is a small day for high profile teams that the public bets on, it was easy for the books to open this up at 9. It would create just the right amount of "equal action for the house". 9 is just that one number that you cant go wrong simply because it will be either 10 or better or a nip and tuck game where you get alot of second half action.
I personally think that if Cincy performs as they should they should win this contest by 10 -13 pts. At the end of the day it will be a test of can xavier's two best players carry the team vs 10. IMO the smart play probably would be a 65-35 play of taking xavier for the first half and if its between 4.5 - 5 and taking cincy second half. Because of a rivalry game and because Xavier really needs this victory they will have enough to stay within in range for the first 20 mins and get overwhelmed at the end.
That being said if Cincy cant get out large and sustain some acceptable freethrow shooting Xavier can back door this spread. At the same token if either holloway and Mclean, or Frease have a bad night or foul trouble it will turn in to a route.
Although as a better you cant truly follow trends from year's past it is an interesting tidbit that every other year this game is a 9 to 10 pts margin of victory for the home team. Might not mean much but it is something to take into account with other factors.
That being said I think CINCY -9 is a solid pick
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