Posted:
#1
Let me start off by disclosing that I'm a Xavier fan. I've watched each Musketeers game at least twice this season and feel like I've got an excellent feel for the team. I've watched UGA about 3 times so obviously not nearly as much.
I really like this spot tonight for XU though. Xavier is one of the BEST programs in college basketball after Feb 1 over the last decade or so. They've had their annual 2nd half A10 road hiccup already at Charlotte, and tonight they get their annual game as a February road underdog against a formidable SEC opponent. This is the third straight year of said matchup, and Xavier won (and covered obviously) both the others, beating LSU (SEC champ) in 09 and Florida (NCAA tourney team) in 10.
In each of those two seasons, as well as this year particularly, both Xavier and the SEC team were in need of a final quality OOC win for their resume, and both times, Xavier showed up with a chip on its shoulder in sold out, rowdy arenas, and played one of their most complete games in each respective season. I see tonight being the same. XU is extremely well coached and prepared. For years X has relied on these kinds of matchups to earn quality wins and national respect.
Speaking of respect, Xavier's best player, Jr PG Tu Holloway, is going to be playing with a major chip on his shoulder after being snubbed from the final 10 for the Bob Cousy Award, given to the nation's top PG. Aside from Jimmer Fredette and Kemba Walker, nobody has been decisively more impressive at the PG spot this season than Holloway. He averages 20.8 ppg, about 5 assists and 4.5 rebounds, and hits 87% at the stripe.
Mark Lyons, our 2nd leading scorer at about 13.5 points and 4 dimes per game, has come on incredibly strong since A10 play began, and particularly over the last 5-6 games. He is our quickest, most athletic guard and is starting to harness that talent, making Xavier's backcourt virtually un-pressable and very difficult to defend. He's also our best perimeter defender and, like the rest of the X team, takes pride in his defensive assignments.
Dante Jackson is our 3 and is having a tough senior year, which is extremely uncharacteristic of a Xavier senior. His shooting % is way down (only 29% from three after going over 40% last year and about a 38% career shooter) and his confidence seems to be low. He won't take anything other than wide open threes, and he actually went 2-2 on Sat against SLU so hopefully things may be turning around. He is kind of a glue guy, vocal leader, etc., and has stepped up in some of the most clutch moments before in his career (including hitting a big 3 against this very UGA team as a freshman in the 08 NCAA tourney victory.) All in all, he is our offensive "weak link" among the starters, but will play good D and hit FTs.
Jamel McLean is a 6'8 PF and is a monster around the rim. He typically finishes with or near a double-double and is a super athlete who can play way above the rim. He is a banger down low and is very tough, but won't take a shot anywhere outside the paint, and isn't a great FT shooter.
Kenny Frease is a 7 foot big guy with very good touch and an outstanding passer. While he is the most improved player after some up and down first 2 years, he's always been an SEC killer in these matchups in the past. He's not quick and sometimes misses box outs for such a big body, but he will have to be doubled or else he could have an offensive field day.
As for the bench, Jeff Robinson and Andrew Taylor are forwards who will give X minutes and some valuable putbacks and boards, but all in all, the starters will all play a lot.
UGA is a great rebounding team which worries me, but X should have a significant edge in the backcourt and in the in-game adjustments, which in my opinion, the X staff is one of the best around at. I see Xavier not only covering, but getting out of Athens with a close victory. The team is going to be very prepared for this and treat it like a March game, which will be a great sign for X backers. Nobody on Xavier's roster (other than the frosh of course) has ever failed to make it to at least the Sweet 16, and this is right around the time of the year where it starts. I really like this spot.
Anyway, sorry for the dissertation, and again, take it for what it's worth. Just thought I'd let you guys know a little bit about Xavier before you take anything. Any questions, feel free. If nothing else though, my gut really like Xavier tonight. I'll doing 1 dime on the ML and 4 on +4.5. GL to all.
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Now I feel really good about my Xavier bet
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