Almost that time.. Going to be my first year posting football picks. Had a solid football season last year and I got tons of great info from people on this forum so I figured I’d share. Going to start us off with a couple future bets I placed.
LSU to win SEC +475
LSU to win National Title +1750
Part 1
Not going to compare this team to the 2019 champs because I really don’t think we’ll see another team like that in our lifetime. What I will say is this team has all the ingredients of a championship team. There’s obviously a few things to look for in a national champ but the big things I look at are coaching, roster, scheduling and conference.
Say what you want about Brian Kelly but the guy is a winner. He doesn’t really lose the games he isn’t supposed to when he has the talent advantage. Part of the reason why he came to LSU was because of the talent he could recruit to a place like LSU. This roster is arguably more talented than Alabama’s when you factor in the importance of the quarterback position in modern CFB. I also like what OC Mike Dembrock is doing offensively. I expect Jayden Daniels to take a big step forward in his second year in the system. I also expect LSU to take a few more risks in the vertical passing game. Jayden Daniels has the arm talent to make any throw on the field and I wouldn’t be surprised if the LSU offense decides to open things up. Because of his running ability, Daniels can be an x factor late in close games.
I like what the Tigers brought in via the portal too. Omar Speights is an Oregon State transfer who I expect to be an all-Conference type player even though he is taking a step up in class. Logan Diggs from Notre Dame also adds much needed depth to the running back room. DB Denver Harris is a super talented kid who can contribute if he cleans up the off the field issues.
Portal aside, Harold Perkins may be the best defensive player in the country. Maason Smith is another All-SEC caliber player. Malik Nabers is a difference maker at receiver. Overall, this is the type of roster that every team in the SEC (Georgia included) doesn’t want to face when fully healthy.
Looking at the schedule, there are a couple things I like. One, facing Florida State early. Even if they drop that game, it’s early enough to not impact the CFP’s decision especially if it’s a close one. For what it’s worth I think FSU is a potential playoff team as well but I do think LSU should win that game. LSU has the usual bye week before they play Bama on 11/4 but an interesting note is that the game before Bama is at home vs Army. Would rather face Army than an SEC opponent before Bama. Getting A&M, Arkansas and Auburn all at home all make for winnable games. Being on the road vs Ole Miss feels like a potential let down spot especially if LSU struggles to stop the run again.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Almost that time.. Going to be my first year posting football picks. Had a solid football season last year and I got tons of great info from people on this forum so I figured I’d share. Going to start us off with a couple future bets I placed.
LSU to win SEC +475
LSU to win National Title +1750
Part 1
Not going to compare this team to the 2019 champs because I really don’t think we’ll see another team like that in our lifetime. What I will say is this team has all the ingredients of a championship team. There’s obviously a few things to look for in a national champ but the big things I look at are coaching, roster, scheduling and conference.
Say what you want about Brian Kelly but the guy is a winner. He doesn’t really lose the games he isn’t supposed to when he has the talent advantage. Part of the reason why he came to LSU was because of the talent he could recruit to a place like LSU. This roster is arguably more talented than Alabama’s when you factor in the importance of the quarterback position in modern CFB. I also like what OC Mike Dembrock is doing offensively. I expect Jayden Daniels to take a big step forward in his second year in the system. I also expect LSU to take a few more risks in the vertical passing game. Jayden Daniels has the arm talent to make any throw on the field and I wouldn’t be surprised if the LSU offense decides to open things up. Because of his running ability, Daniels can be an x factor late in close games.
I like what the Tigers brought in via the portal too. Omar Speights is an Oregon State transfer who I expect to be an all-Conference type player even though he is taking a step up in class. Logan Diggs from Notre Dame also adds much needed depth to the running back room. DB Denver Harris is a super talented kid who can contribute if he cleans up the off the field issues.
Portal aside, Harold Perkins may be the best defensive player in the country. Maason Smith is another All-SEC caliber player. Malik Nabers is a difference maker at receiver. Overall, this is the type of roster that every team in the SEC (Georgia included) doesn’t want to face when fully healthy.
Looking at the schedule, there are a couple things I like. One, facing Florida State early. Even if they drop that game, it’s early enough to not impact the CFP’s decision especially if it’s a close one. For what it’s worth I think FSU is a potential playoff team as well but I do think LSU should win that game. LSU has the usual bye week before they play Bama on 11/4 but an interesting note is that the game before Bama is at home vs Army. Would rather face Army than an SEC opponent before Bama. Getting A&M, Arkansas and Auburn all at home all make for winnable games. Being on the road vs Ole Miss feels like a potential let down spot especially if LSU struggles to stop the run again.
Another reason why I’m looking at an SEC team to win the national title is simply because they probably have the best chance of any conference of getting two teams in this year. Even if Georgia somehow loses one game before the SEC title game they will definitely be in the playoffs as back to back champs. That leaves room for an SEC West team to make the playoffs as long as they perform during the regular season and have a decent showing in the SEC title game. You could make the same argument for the BIG10 getting two teams in but I don’t think Michigan or Ohio State will get the same level of “dominance bias” as Georgia. I’m envisioning a scenario where the committee has trouble keeping an LSU team who loses to Georgia in the SEC title game out of the playoffs because they’ve already beat Alabama and FSU.
The biggest reason why I like this bet is because I don’t expect Alabama to be very good offensively. Bryce Young did so much to mask some of the Tide’s problems offensively the last couple years. I’m not a believer in any of the three players Bama has in their QB room and I’m not sure Saban is either. Taking a transfer QB during spring ball is never a good sign. LSU has a great chance of going into Tuscaloosa and stealing one given the question marks at QB. At +1750 to win the title, there is definitely some value on the Bayou Bengals.
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Part Two
Another reason why I’m looking at an SEC team to win the national title is simply because they probably have the best chance of any conference of getting two teams in this year. Even if Georgia somehow loses one game before the SEC title game they will definitely be in the playoffs as back to back champs. That leaves room for an SEC West team to make the playoffs as long as they perform during the regular season and have a decent showing in the SEC title game. You could make the same argument for the BIG10 getting two teams in but I don’t think Michigan or Ohio State will get the same level of “dominance bias” as Georgia. I’m envisioning a scenario where the committee has trouble keeping an LSU team who loses to Georgia in the SEC title game out of the playoffs because they’ve already beat Alabama and FSU.
The biggest reason why I like this bet is because I don’t expect Alabama to be very good offensively. Bryce Young did so much to mask some of the Tide’s problems offensively the last couple years. I’m not a believer in any of the three players Bama has in their QB room and I’m not sure Saban is either. Taking a transfer QB during spring ball is never a good sign. LSU has a great chance of going into Tuscaloosa and stealing one given the question marks at QB. At +1750 to win the title, there is definitely some value on the Bayou Bengals.
Oneof my favorite future bets based on value alone. Their toughest opponents are Utah, Oregon State and USC all of which come on the road. I think that if the Bruins can go 2-1 in those games, the Pac 12 will cannibalize itself enough to where UCLA can land in the Pac 12 title game. I won’t spend too much time breaking down those three matchups but I do have some quick thoughts.
Utah - The Bruins dominated Utah last year. The scoreboard doesn’t quite capture how UCLA manhandled a very physical Utah team in the trenches. Things will certainly be different on the road this year but I like UCLA chances there.
Oregon State - No one likes playing in Corvallis. Just a weird place to play. If there’s a game that scares me the most, it’s this one. Jonathan Smith isn’t a coach I like to bet against.
USC- rivalry match up. USC has the more talented roster and QB but this games comes at an absolutely brutal scheduling spot for the Trojans who will face Notre Dame, Utah, Washington and Oregon all in a 5-week span before facing UCLA in the last game of the season. One or two losses during that stretch could make for a deflated USC team even in a rivalry match up.
Another reason why I like UCLA this year is their quarterback room. I would be okay with any of the three guys competing for the starting job. True five star freshman Moore probably has the most upside but Schlee is a capable QB and Garbers is a steady option. The running back room is solid but definitely a step down from Charbonnet.
The biggest question mark for this team will be shedding their bend but don’t break mindset under new defensive coordinator D’Anthony Lynn. All of the reports from UCLA camp are saying players are playing downhill and way more aggressive but we’ll see. Overall, looking at UCLA’s schedule I could definitely see them winning 10 games which gives a conference future bet at +1500 some nice value.
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UCLA to win Pac 12 +1500
Oneof my favorite future bets based on value alone. Their toughest opponents are Utah, Oregon State and USC all of which come on the road. I think that if the Bruins can go 2-1 in those games, the Pac 12 will cannibalize itself enough to where UCLA can land in the Pac 12 title game. I won’t spend too much time breaking down those three matchups but I do have some quick thoughts.
Utah - The Bruins dominated Utah last year. The scoreboard doesn’t quite capture how UCLA manhandled a very physical Utah team in the trenches. Things will certainly be different on the road this year but I like UCLA chances there.
Oregon State - No one likes playing in Corvallis. Just a weird place to play. If there’s a game that scares me the most, it’s this one. Jonathan Smith isn’t a coach I like to bet against.
USC- rivalry match up. USC has the more talented roster and QB but this games comes at an absolutely brutal scheduling spot for the Trojans who will face Notre Dame, Utah, Washington and Oregon all in a 5-week span before facing UCLA in the last game of the season. One or two losses during that stretch could make for a deflated USC team even in a rivalry match up.
Another reason why I like UCLA this year is their quarterback room. I would be okay with any of the three guys competing for the starting job. True five star freshman Moore probably has the most upside but Schlee is a capable QB and Garbers is a steady option. The running back room is solid but definitely a step down from Charbonnet.
The biggest question mark for this team will be shedding their bend but don’t break mindset under new defensive coordinator D’Anthony Lynn. All of the reports from UCLA camp are saying players are playing downhill and way more aggressive but we’ll see. Overall, looking at UCLA’s schedule I could definitely see them winning 10 games which gives a conference future bet at +1500 some nice value.
This is the bet I’m most excited to watch play out. Jordan Travis is absolutely electric when he’s playing well. A couple things I look for in a Heisman trophy winner are being a conference champ game contender, national television opportunities, top 10 offense and wow factor. Jordan Travis checks all those boxes for me so this was a must bet. Florida State has the roster and coaching to win the ACC this year as proven by respectable odds of them to win the ACC as low as +130. Florida State is also one of those programs that just generates a different type of buzz when they are playing well. Their games against Miami, Clemson and Miami will definitely provide big-time national tv exposure for a signature Heisman moment. Travis could also get another shot at one in the ACC title game.
Overall, I really like how the Florida State offense is constructed. Johnny Wilson is a big play receiver. Trey Benson is a solid RB but I don’t expect Florida State to lean on their running game when they have a player as dynamic as Jordan Travis. Florida State averaged 30 points a game & 484 total yards per game and I actually expect those number to improve. I also think Travis will have a chance to put up some video game type numbers versus schools like Florida, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Boston College.
Lastly, Jordan Travis has shown shades of having the same wow factor of guys like Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams. His 3rd down scramble in the second quarter of the Florida game last year was one of the most impressive QB scrambles I’ve seen in a while. Plays like that are the ones that Heisman voters remember.
I wish we got better odds than +1000 but I like my chances with Jordan Travis on an FSU team with high expectations.
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Jordan Travis to win Heisman +1000
This is the bet I’m most excited to watch play out. Jordan Travis is absolutely electric when he’s playing well. A couple things I look for in a Heisman trophy winner are being a conference champ game contender, national television opportunities, top 10 offense and wow factor. Jordan Travis checks all those boxes for me so this was a must bet. Florida State has the roster and coaching to win the ACC this year as proven by respectable odds of them to win the ACC as low as +130. Florida State is also one of those programs that just generates a different type of buzz when they are playing well. Their games against Miami, Clemson and Miami will definitely provide big-time national tv exposure for a signature Heisman moment. Travis could also get another shot at one in the ACC title game.
Overall, I really like how the Florida State offense is constructed. Johnny Wilson is a big play receiver. Trey Benson is a solid RB but I don’t expect Florida State to lean on their running game when they have a player as dynamic as Jordan Travis. Florida State averaged 30 points a game & 484 total yards per game and I actually expect those number to improve. I also think Travis will have a chance to put up some video game type numbers versus schools like Florida, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Boston College.
Lastly, Jordan Travis has shown shades of having the same wow factor of guys like Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams. His 3rd down scramble in the second quarter of the Florida game last year was one of the most impressive QB scrambles I’ve seen in a while. Plays like that are the ones that Heisman voters remember.
I wish we got better odds than +1000 but I like my chances with Jordan Travis on an FSU team with high expectations.
With you on UCLA as a PAC long shot .. agree on the QB room the odds are under 10X because DTR left and someone gotta step up.. Ideally Moore is every bit of a legit 5 star stud at some point this year and the hope is Garbers could at least hold the line until then, or take over the spot himself he should have Chip's offense down at this point .. Also reallllly need some help on D they can make a sizable jump on that side and still stink .. Chip went outside his rolodex of horrible DC's, hard not to see the very bad trajectory they'll be on if they show up in the B10 totally inept on D still so it's a hire they can't afford to whiff on again .. even if the new guy is good it doesn't mean instant success .. and hard to know where they are at pretty tight lid on spring ball, no spring game .. wide range of outcomes for where UCLA could end up this year so almost say take the 8.5 under on the season wins and the conf odds, theres not that much room to middle bust by winning at least 9 and not at least making the Pac champ game lol .. good luck!
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With you on UCLA as a PAC long shot .. agree on the QB room the odds are under 10X because DTR left and someone gotta step up.. Ideally Moore is every bit of a legit 5 star stud at some point this year and the hope is Garbers could at least hold the line until then, or take over the spot himself he should have Chip's offense down at this point .. Also reallllly need some help on D they can make a sizable jump on that side and still stink .. Chip went outside his rolodex of horrible DC's, hard not to see the very bad trajectory they'll be on if they show up in the B10 totally inept on D still so it's a hire they can't afford to whiff on again .. even if the new guy is good it doesn't mean instant success .. and hard to know where they are at pretty tight lid on spring ball, no spring game .. wide range of outcomes for where UCLA could end up this year so almost say take the 8.5 under on the season wins and the conf odds, theres not that much room to middle bust by winning at least 9 and not at least making the Pac champ game lol .. good luck!
Bridge! Good to hear from ya! I like how you’re thinking with the season win total/conference title boom or bust scenario. I just got a weird feeling Chip puts something special together this season. Hard to argue the production DTR had but a less volatile quarterback in Chip’s system wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Best of luck this season!
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@Bridge1
Bridge! Good to hear from ya! I like how you’re thinking with the season win total/conference title boom or bust scenario. I just got a weird feeling Chip puts something special together this season. Hard to argue the production DTR had but a less volatile quarterback in Chip’s system wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Best of luck this season!
Nice and informative writeups Bridge and Geaux. We need people like you on the Forum who not only cite their selection but support it with a rationale. Many thanks to you both.
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@GeauxCap
Nice and informative writeups Bridge and Geaux. We need people like you on the Forum who not only cite their selection but support it with a rationale. Many thanks to you both.
Thanks bro! I’ve learned a lot and won a lot because of guys like Bridge, Train, League Capper and many more on these forums. I always told myself if I posted picks, I would do my best to give actual write ups as long as I had the time. Good luck this season!
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@Patriots1133
Thanks bro! I’ve learned a lot and won a lot because of guys like Bridge, Train, League Capper and many more on these forums. I always told myself if I posted picks, I would do my best to give actual write ups as long as I had the time. Good luck this season!
SMU to win American Athletic Conference +400 (2 units)
A lot to like here with SMU. Starts with the quarterback, Preston Stone who will be replacing Tanner Mordecai. I think Stone is capable of putting up some of the same video game type numbers Mordecai did under head coach and OC Rhett Lashlee. I also like the fact that Stone was able to redshirt last year and learn the system. I don’t expect much of a learning curve for Stone as a first year starter because of his familiarity with the offense.
Next, the defense… which was just dreadful at times. The game against Houston last year where they gave up over 700 yards of total offense was a classic. SMU did a lot of work in the portal and also return 8 starters from a defense that really has no where to go but up. They’ve got a plethora of talent from Miami on the defensive side of the ball and their secondary should be much improved with 7 transfers. The way their offense is set up, we really just need this side of the ball to be serviceable. If the defense can take a big step forward they have a chance at upsetting TCU or Oklahoma in the non conference slate.
I like the fact that SMU avoids Tulane and UTSA. On paper this looks like the most talented team in the AAC. If they put it all together they should definitely be in the title game. Give me SMU to win the conference for two units in their second year under Rhett Lashlee.
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SMU to win American Athletic Conference +400 (2 units)
A lot to like here with SMU. Starts with the quarterback, Preston Stone who will be replacing Tanner Mordecai. I think Stone is capable of putting up some of the same video game type numbers Mordecai did under head coach and OC Rhett Lashlee. I also like the fact that Stone was able to redshirt last year and learn the system. I don’t expect much of a learning curve for Stone as a first year starter because of his familiarity with the offense.
Next, the defense… which was just dreadful at times. The game against Houston last year where they gave up over 700 yards of total offense was a classic. SMU did a lot of work in the portal and also return 8 starters from a defense that really has no where to go but up. They’ve got a plethora of talent from Miami on the defensive side of the ball and their secondary should be much improved with 7 transfers. The way their offense is set up, we really just need this side of the ball to be serviceable. If the defense can take a big step forward they have a chance at upsetting TCU or Oklahoma in the non conference slate.
I like the fact that SMU avoids Tulane and UTSA. On paper this looks like the most talented team in the AAC. If they put it all together they should definitely be in the title game. Give me SMU to win the conference for two units in their second year under Rhett Lashlee.
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