Posted:
#1
As I said in my last post, I'm just getting back into this, but hopefully we can do as good as we were doing a few years back. GL to all 
Wisconsin +10.5 -
In all honesty, I see quite a few home dogs I like this week, but not going to post tons of plays and hope I hit half of them. Now, OSU has a great traveling team and also the best offense in the Big Ten. However, it's hard for me to imagine that even as good as OSU is, that Wisky will just roll over on their home field when they are boasting close to a top 10 defense in the nation. When looking at OSU's schedule, I can see why they are ranked so high in the offensive department with some of the horrible defenses they have played. Give me Wisky to put up a fight at home.
Arkansas +7.5 -
Maybe I am missing something with Ole Miss. I don't see a good enough gap to favor more than a TD spread. I have seen this line jump back and forth depending where I look from 7 and 7.5. Either way, Arkansas has taken the last two games between the two and Ole Miss shows us little defense. With a rowdy home crowd, I expect Arkansas to keep this one closer.
Pitt -3.5 -
There are plenty of stats and ATS that we can throw out for this game, but the difference here is the depth of Pitts running game. James Connor should have no trouble finding room against Virginia's lowly defense that gives up over 160 yards per game. Minus the run game, Pitt is extremely well balanced and Virginia doesn't look like they hang all that well giving up over 470 yards per game. I am a little skeptical about Pitts defense, but I see Pitt completely controlling the game and time of possession, leaving Virginia minimal time to cover. (Hate taking road favorites in conference play, but the stats are just too much to ignore)
Not for the faint of heart:
Texas Tech ML-
I can probably go through this site and find at least 10 people backing WV in there picks and I understand. This is obviously my least favorite play of the 4, but here's my reasoning:
This is the first time WV is traveling this year and if anyone remembers, they were terrible on the road last season. (For stat purposes, 4 of their 5 losses were road games, they are 1-6 ATS on the road and 0-4 ATS against Texas Tech)
So here's the way I see it- Offenses are very similar with TT ranked 2nd in the nation. Defenses are both non-factors as neither has one. There are a mere 30 yards away from each other on yards against. So in terms of game flow, each team will be able to counter what the other brings them. In a coin-flip type of game, I will take the home team vs a team that has shown to be shaky on the road.
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