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6-3 so far but went 0-2 last week after a 6-1 start.
Teams losing at least two straight SU & ATS and getting 14 or more points in game #4 or later in the season are 122-63 ATS against teams winning at least two straight games SU & ATS. The teams that fit the system in W5 are KKY & MIA(OH).
The only good thing we can say about Kentucky this season is their red zone defense. Only 2 TD allowed in 8 red zone opportunities for their opponents. But that could be the key here. If they force LSU to kick a few field goals instead of a few TDs, this large spread can be covered. LSU has Florida and then Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama on deck. Look-ahead? The last 4 times LSU was favored before playing Florida they went 0-4 ATS. LSU also played a big game at WVA last week, and while they won it rather easily, it was stil a big game for them, and their 2nd straight game on national TV. They are in a soft spot here and could overlook Kentucky. They can stil beat Kentucky easily but covering a -30 line is not going to be easy at all. KENTUCKY +30
Miami Ohio is getting 14.5 at home against a red hot Cincinnati team in what is a rivalery game that could turn Miami season around. They are winless but they are not really playing bad football. Cincinnati owned them in recent years but Miami of Ohio is always giving them all they can handle and then some when playing on their own campus. Cincinnati won last 4 meetings played at Cincinnati by 25 ppg and last two meetings played at Oxford by about 30 ppg. But Cincinnati has not been all that impressive in Oxford in the past, as their only trully dominant game there in recent years came in 2007. Their win in 2009 was considered a bad game for them as they were supposed to destroy Miami. MIAMI (OHIO) +14.5
Playing after an OT game is a bad spot in college football, both for those who won that OT game and those who lost it. For those who lost it, the worst possible situation is to go home and to lay points in their next game (36-63 ATS). And for those who won it, the worst thing is going on the road after that. Well, I am only going to fade a home favorite who lost in OT last week, and that is LAT.
LAT playing very solid football this season but this situation right here is extremely bad for them. In last two weeks, they lost two games, one in OT and the other one by a single point. First, they led 34-7 at home late in third quarter against Houston and they allowed 28 straight points to lose by 1. And then they went on the road to play Mississippi State, played them toe-to-toe from start to finish, only to lose in OT. And by the way, three weeks ago they played in OT against CARK as well and four weeks ago they lost at SMISS by only 2 after SMISS kicked a fg with under 3 minutes left. If they overcome all this and beat Hawaii with more than 4 points, I will be the first one to say that this team is special. It takes some big balls to do that. But my guess is, they will lose a close one this week and probably give up on the season. HAWAII +4
Teams losing at least two straight SU & ATS and getting 14 or more points in game #4 or later in the season are 122-63 ATS against teams winning at least two straight games SU & ATS. The teams that fit the system in W5 are KKY & MIA(OH).
The only good thing we can say about Kentucky this season is their red zone defense. Only 2 TD allowed in 8 red zone opportunities for their opponents. But that could be the key here. If they force LSU to kick a few field goals instead of a few TDs, this large spread can be covered. LSU has Florida and then Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama on deck. Look-ahead? The last 4 times LSU was favored before playing Florida they went 0-4 ATS. LSU also played a big game at WVA last week, and while they won it rather easily, it was stil a big game for them, and their 2nd straight game on national TV. They are in a soft spot here and could overlook Kentucky. They can stil beat Kentucky easily but covering a -30 line is not going to be easy at all. KENTUCKY +30
Miami Ohio is getting 14.5 at home against a red hot Cincinnati team in what is a rivalery game that could turn Miami season around. They are winless but they are not really playing bad football. Cincinnati owned them in recent years but Miami of Ohio is always giving them all they can handle and then some when playing on their own campus. Cincinnati won last 4 meetings played at Cincinnati by 25 ppg and last two meetings played at Oxford by about 30 ppg. But Cincinnati has not been all that impressive in Oxford in the past, as their only trully dominant game there in recent years came in 2007. Their win in 2009 was considered a bad game for them as they were supposed to destroy Miami. MIAMI (OHIO) +14.5
Playing after an OT game is a bad spot in college football, both for those who won that OT game and those who lost it. For those who lost it, the worst possible situation is to go home and to lay points in their next game (36-63 ATS). And for those who won it, the worst thing is going on the road after that. Well, I am only going to fade a home favorite who lost in OT last week, and that is LAT.
LAT playing very solid football this season but this situation right here is extremely bad for them. In last two weeks, they lost two games, one in OT and the other one by a single point. First, they led 34-7 at home late in third quarter against Houston and they allowed 28 straight points to lose by 1. And then they went on the road to play Mississippi State, played them toe-to-toe from start to finish, only to lose in OT. And by the way, three weeks ago they played in OT against CARK as well and four weeks ago they lost at SMISS by only 2 after SMISS kicked a fg with under 3 minutes left. If they overcome all this and beat Hawaii with more than 4 points, I will be the first one to say that this team is special. It takes some big balls to do that. But my guess is, they will lose a close one this week and probably give up on the season. HAWAII +4
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