@D-Town
I honestly don't know if I have a good take on Michigan. They don't even know who they are, nearly impossible for me to have a beat on them. I have heard this week has been a very good week of practice - that Orji and the OL have put together consecutive strong days against the 1's on the defense. I trust their kicker and defense lol.
If you made me pick I'd lean under 44.5 because i think Michigan should be able to run the ball on USC's middle of the road run defense. I just struggle to trust that Moore and the coaching staff stick to their strengths. They panicked against Texas and completely abandoned their path to victory at the first sign of adversity. Back in the week 2 thread I said that Texas was the toughest game on the schedule because of their OL and QB. I had yet to see any team shut down Michigans DL and the Horns did it to perfection. Strongly believe they're the best team in the nation right now. Also have to look at some of the things Michigan did - Loveland with a contactless fumble? Could have been a 17-10 game at half but instead its 24-3. Team is just all out of sorts and they do things that are uncharacteristic from recent years. Stupid penalties and TO's - 2 categories they were near the best at in recent years, they're now TO margin of -1.3 per game which is #115 and 56 penalty yards per game is #73. To put that into perspective a year ago they ranked #1 in TO margin a +1.3 and #3 in penalty yards per game at 27 ypg. When you play ball control, field position, pound the rock and lean on your D type football those are HUGE stats. Another thing - Wink has the blitz rate WAY up from what it looked like under Minter/McDonald. Ghost of Dr. Blitz don brown which was not a great recipe against offensive teams that roll the way Lincoln Riley does. So, do I think they're as bad as they have looked? No. But I do not know if I would trust them on a fairly short spread even though this might be a good buy low spot. I don't think USC has the goods at either position (OL/QB) to do what Texas did. There's just so many unknowns here.
For comparison I'd have Michigan about 2.5 points better than LSU not counting SOS (Michigan 8, LSU 17) & Home field although the weather up in AA is perfect today- 80 and sunny. USC outgained LSU by 26 yards and needed a 4Q comeback. Again if I was just playing numbers you have to like the home team with points but based on the above post its a let's see it first for me.
@RichieR
Indiana -28.5 vs Charlotte -- Hoosiers by 38
Ohio St -39.5 vs Marshall -- OSU by 55 (This doesn't take SOS into schedule at all and OSU is bottom 5 in this but if they played 4Q today they can hit this. I'd guess it ends more like 48-10).
Maryland vs Villanova -- No prediction for FCS games
Rutgers +3 at Va tech -- Rutgers by 11 (Rutgers has played the 2nd worst schedule in the nation and this isn't reflected in the prediction just FYI)
Penn St -48.5 vs Kent St -- If you include the Tennesse game in which Kent was outgained by 600 yards then I'd make Penn St to win this by 70 as well. Penn St can name their number today and you know JF is going to try and cover if he can.
MSU +5 at BC -- I have MSU as 12 points better when taking out the FCS Prarie View game. I think BC is a little overrated - they were outgained by 142 yards against Mizzou, lost TO battle (-2) and somehow kept it within 6. I think MSU is very much live tonight and should keep this close at minimum. I don't really get this line I know a few WR's are injured for MSU but they seem to just plug guys in at that position and they do well.
That's some of the games. Idk how much i trust 3 weeks of OOC data but the Indiana line is probably the only one I'd consider (outside MSU which is going to be a play). I'd lean Rutgers but not sure there's enough data on these 2 teams yet to trust this number i spit out... FWIW this takes into account a calculation based on yardage only - obviously only 1 piece of the pie when capping a game.
Prop bet: Lake Mcree (USC) over 34.5 yards receiving
Think TE’s have a good matchup up the middle against UM compared to years past. Kid from Texas shredded them. Like this low number.
I did play a 1u *unofficial prop play* free bet on a bit of a bomb Alex Orji 200+ passing yards 10/1. I think this is a defense that is ripe to get picked on as they cheat up against the run. I have no idea if Orji is going to be allowed to
throw enough to hit this lol. There’s also a chance of soft coverage in the 2H if it’s another disaster overall for the team.
Other long shots I snagged are Marlin Klein 9/1 to score a TD. No clue if Loveland even plays today and Klein is a little underrated imo as a pass catcher. Also took Fred Moore 11/1. 2 of the 3 games he’s been WIDE OPEN for easy scores yet two terrible throws. I think the shot will be there so at 11/1 just hoping it connects this time..
Just some long shot prop fun with my Wolves as that’s about all i can stomach to do at this point 
Week 4: 3-2
Prop: 0-1 -- Moss got that poor kid blown up multiple times lol oh well
B1G plays: 2-0 the 2 leans in the B1g hit as well
Total record not incl props: 10-8
Props: 0-2
B1G plays: 6-2
Think the reads on the B1G contests were very good. Thoughts (not plays) on 6 of the games and those would have went 6-0 had we made actual bets on em all. Hopefully this continues as we gather more data heading into conference play!! Tough luck on both props this year. Bet Mullings the only game he wasn't a complete machine & then an injury yesterday.
Michigan needs Tuttle to get healthy real bad. He has experience, can throw and is somewhat mobile. They need that combination of player at the QB position because the reality is this team isn't far off from being pretty dang good. The TO's are still a major issue. They're still a group teetering on the edge of turning this season into a good one vs completely melting down. I've never wanted a bye week for my team, but they need one bad right now. Should handle Minnesota but that UW game will be one that they'll have to claw through and survive I think if Orji is still the QB.
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