Like a few more of these suggested plays today, still a few that are badly skewed due to SOS so far with only 1 conference game down. Ex: OSU line is clearly way off, they can out athlete and sleep walk there way to a 30+ point win this weekend. Anyway here is the Vegas line vs my numbers that are built in terms of raw yardage. Up to you to check out the weather, trends, matchups on the field, home field advantage, rivalries, history, etc etc etc
Michigan -10.5 @ Iowa --- Michigan by 29 Illinois @ Wisconsin -7 --- Illinois by 13 Minnesota -11.5 vs Purdue --- Minnesota by 27 Maryland -7 vs MSU --- Maryland by 9 Ohio St -41.5 @ Rutgers --- OSU by 20 NW @ PSU -25.5 --- Penn St by 6 Indiana @ Nebraska -5.5 --- Indiana by 5
Not sure what to make out of these for the most part, don't trust quite a few. Will probably be on Michigan, Illinois, Indiana. Penn St is a weird one, might take a flier on NW but they're terrible. Numbers had it as a close game vs CMU last week too and CMU covered easily even going -4 in TO's. Minnesota has been a net yardage machine so far vs a pretty bad if not awful schedule. Do think they're very very good though and may play them if it comes down below 10. Will watch MSU closely here, if they make a QB switch I may take the TD as numbers think this is somewhat close... however when you look at matchups on the field it's reaaaal hard to see MSU defense getting ANY stops without significant pressure on the Maryland QB's. Those WR's should go crazy. Over might be a better play, if MSU doesn't win this week they're staring at a 2-7 record and possibly one more game in which they could win the rest of the season.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Like a few more of these suggested plays today, still a few that are badly skewed due to SOS so far with only 1 conference game down. Ex: OSU line is clearly way off, they can out athlete and sleep walk there way to a 30+ point win this weekend. Anyway here is the Vegas line vs my numbers that are built in terms of raw yardage. Up to you to check out the weather, trends, matchups on the field, home field advantage, rivalries, history, etc etc etc
Michigan -10.5 @ Iowa --- Michigan by 29 Illinois @ Wisconsin -7 --- Illinois by 13 Minnesota -11.5 vs Purdue --- Minnesota by 27 Maryland -7 vs MSU --- Maryland by 9 Ohio St -41.5 @ Rutgers --- OSU by 20 NW @ PSU -25.5 --- Penn St by 6 Indiana @ Nebraska -5.5 --- Indiana by 5
Not sure what to make out of these for the most part, don't trust quite a few. Will probably be on Michigan, Illinois, Indiana. Penn St is a weird one, might take a flier on NW but they're terrible. Numbers had it as a close game vs CMU last week too and CMU covered easily even going -4 in TO's. Minnesota has been a net yardage machine so far vs a pretty bad if not awful schedule. Do think they're very very good though and may play them if it comes down below 10. Will watch MSU closely here, if they make a QB switch I may take the TD as numbers think this is somewhat close... however when you look at matchups on the field it's reaaaal hard to see MSU defense getting ANY stops without significant pressure on the Maryland QB's. Those WR's should go crazy. Over might be a better play, if MSU doesn't win this week they're staring at a 2-7 record and possibly one more game in which they could win the rest of the season.
As for UM and Iowa, as JH said today Kinnick is a place that top 5 teams go to die. UM beat Iowa 42-3 in the B1G championship game last year so I’m sure Iowa has had this game circled. Michigans front struggled vs Maryland last week, could be an issue here as Iowa loves to pound the ball, play field position and rely on that defense. Iowa was actually outgained by nearly 100 yards vs Rutgers last week and without 2 defensive TDs that’s a 13-10 game. Rutgers really doesn’t hVe much at the QB position and Iowa gave up 300 yards through the air. Hugely concerning. I thought last year in the title game, being a dome, Michigan was just able to out athlete Iowa. Get the ball in space and no problems offensively. Avoid TO’s will be big, it’s JJ’s first career road start and Kinnick will not be kind I can guarantee that! Defensively Michigan should bring the house, Petras is not a mobile guy and Michigans secondary was phenomenal vs Maryland last week. Pressure is key. Weather looks perfect and it’s an early kickoff, both not ideal for Iowa.
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As for UM and Iowa, as JH said today Kinnick is a place that top 5 teams go to die. UM beat Iowa 42-3 in the B1G championship game last year so I’m sure Iowa has had this game circled. Michigans front struggled vs Maryland last week, could be an issue here as Iowa loves to pound the ball, play field position and rely on that defense. Iowa was actually outgained by nearly 100 yards vs Rutgers last week and without 2 defensive TDs that’s a 13-10 game. Rutgers really doesn’t hVe much at the QB position and Iowa gave up 300 yards through the air. Hugely concerning. I thought last year in the title game, being a dome, Michigan was just able to out athlete Iowa. Get the ball in space and no problems offensively. Avoid TO’s will be big, it’s JJ’s first career road start and Kinnick will not be kind I can guarantee that! Defensively Michigan should bring the house, Petras is not a mobile guy and Michigans secondary was phenomenal vs Maryland last week. Pressure is key. Weather looks perfect and it’s an early kickoff, both not ideal for Iowa.
The Rutgers game wasn't even close. Yes, they got passing yards and most of that was in the second half when the game was over. Take Michigan all you want. I am not a sucker for this, because I have learned from previous times that Iowa will be ready to go for this game. I have a friend that is close to the program and they have had this circled since last year. They are finally getting healthy on the offensive side of the ball and the defense is elite. I am not a fan of the Hawks, but man I just have a feeling Gus Johnson is going to be saying some crazy saying as the Hawkeye students storm the field.
Also, Wisconsin will bounce back. Illinois is better but not in Madison. The students will be sleepy since it is an 11 o'clock kick, but they don't forget about how Bret left them. I can see Barry upstairs saying keep pouring it on.
MSU is just bad. I think loosing Nailor and Walker have really hurt this team. They aren't sneaking up on people this year. Maryland I think takes them out and slaps them.
OSU by 50. They can't even try not to score that many against a bad Rutgers team. They might get Nebraska and Indiana but this team isn't very good.
Minnesota will take care of business, but something tells me Purdue was looking ahead and I think their QB probably could have played if it was a different opponent. Charlie Sizzle will get his, but Minnesota's run game is just too much. 31-20 type game. Late TD by Minnesota salts it away.
Nebraska off a bye week could actually get one here. Indiana just can't play defense. I feel like the first team to 40 wins.
Penn State big early and lets off the accelerator at the end so that they don't embarass Fitzy. Man they have fallen and they aren't getting up anytime soon. They might not win again this year...look at their schedule, their home games are against Wisconsin, Ohio State and finish with Illinois which will be all Illini in the crowd by that time. They go on the road to Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, and Minnesota. None of these are wins. NONE!
Just my two cents on the best conference in the land.
Also this will be shake up Saturday with all these somewhat big games across the nation and sprinkle in some upsets...buckle up you know it happens once a year and this is the week.
Hit or Miss
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The Rutgers game wasn't even close. Yes, they got passing yards and most of that was in the second half when the game was over. Take Michigan all you want. I am not a sucker for this, because I have learned from previous times that Iowa will be ready to go for this game. I have a friend that is close to the program and they have had this circled since last year. They are finally getting healthy on the offensive side of the ball and the defense is elite. I am not a fan of the Hawks, but man I just have a feeling Gus Johnson is going to be saying some crazy saying as the Hawkeye students storm the field.
Also, Wisconsin will bounce back. Illinois is better but not in Madison. The students will be sleepy since it is an 11 o'clock kick, but they don't forget about how Bret left them. I can see Barry upstairs saying keep pouring it on.
MSU is just bad. I think loosing Nailor and Walker have really hurt this team. They aren't sneaking up on people this year. Maryland I think takes them out and slaps them.
OSU by 50. They can't even try not to score that many against a bad Rutgers team. They might get Nebraska and Indiana but this team isn't very good.
Minnesota will take care of business, but something tells me Purdue was looking ahead and I think their QB probably could have played if it was a different opponent. Charlie Sizzle will get his, but Minnesota's run game is just too much. 31-20 type game. Late TD by Minnesota salts it away.
Nebraska off a bye week could actually get one here. Indiana just can't play defense. I feel like the first team to 40 wins.
Penn State big early and lets off the accelerator at the end so that they don't embarass Fitzy. Man they have fallen and they aren't getting up anytime soon. They might not win again this year...look at their schedule, their home games are against Wisconsin, Ohio State and finish with Illinois which will be all Illini in the crowd by that time. They go on the road to Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, and Minnesota. None of these are wins. NONE!
Just my two cents on the best conference in the land.
Also this will be shake up Saturday with all these somewhat big games across the nation and sprinkle in some upsets...buckle up you know it happens once a year and this is the week.
Can’t really disagree with any of that! Well said. Wisconsin though idk… Mertz is so bad. Illini are a tough bunch, might be a live dog. Wisconsin already with two losses, don’t see Madison being too up for this one, earlier kick as you said. May take the 7. Nebraska is just awful, night game though, Indiana just seems to find ways to win so I’d expect if they do lose it’ll be tight.
Saw that Iowa hasn’t lost at home vs an AP top 5 team in the past 6 tries going back 15ish years. Kind of leaning towards taking the points myself. Michigan should have way too much athleticism here but more I think about it, the more questions I have. Big test at Kinnick!
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Can’t really disagree with any of that! Well said. Wisconsin though idk… Mertz is so bad. Illini are a tough bunch, might be a live dog. Wisconsin already with two losses, don’t see Madison being too up for this one, earlier kick as you said. May take the 7. Nebraska is just awful, night game though, Indiana just seems to find ways to win so I’d expect if they do lose it’ll be tight.
Saw that Iowa hasn’t lost at home vs an AP top 5 team in the past 6 tries going back 15ish years. Kind of leaning towards taking the points myself. Michigan should have way too much athleticism here but more I think about it, the more questions I have. Big test at Kinnick!
And if Iowa is somehow able to beat the tough teams on their schedule this year it won't be because they explode for 45 points. It'll be because their defense plays a lights out game and they pull off a 20-17 type win.
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And if Iowa is somehow able to beat the tough teams on their schedule this year it won't be because they explode for 45 points. It'll be because their defense plays a lights out game and they pull off a 20-17 type win.
Yeah, honestly only thing I like about Iowa Saturday is they’re historically good in this spot vs top 5 teams. Didn’t think Michigan did a good job against the run, especially in 1H vs Maryland. Iowa has a good north/south run game. If Michigan can hold up vs the run early and force Iowa into 3rd and 6+ then it’s going to be a very long day for the Iowa offense. On 3rd down this year Iowa has gone:
4/17 vs NDSU
3/11 vs ISU
7/16 vs Nevada
1/9 vs Rutgers
Feel like Iowa might have an offensive bag of tricks they’ll attempt, and probably blow through in the first half of this game. Will be a challenge for JJ to take care of the ball. TO’s the ultimate equalizer. Would also be nice to see Donovan Edwards back for UM, he’s a matchup nightmare for a team like Iowa imo.
Key for UM will be similar to the title game, hit Iowa on the scoreboard early. Get ‘em behind 7-14 points early and they complete abandon everything that makes them tough and put the ball in Petras’ hands.
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@Dutch1976
Yeah, honestly only thing I like about Iowa Saturday is they’re historically good in this spot vs top 5 teams. Didn’t think Michigan did a good job against the run, especially in 1H vs Maryland. Iowa has a good north/south run game. If Michigan can hold up vs the run early and force Iowa into 3rd and 6+ then it’s going to be a very long day for the Iowa offense. On 3rd down this year Iowa has gone:
4/17 vs NDSU
3/11 vs ISU
7/16 vs Nevada
1/9 vs Rutgers
Feel like Iowa might have an offensive bag of tricks they’ll attempt, and probably blow through in the first half of this game. Will be a challenge for JJ to take care of the ball. TO’s the ultimate equalizer. Would also be nice to see Donovan Edwards back for UM, he’s a matchup nightmare for a team like Iowa imo.
Key for UM will be similar to the title game, hit Iowa on the scoreboard early. Get ‘em behind 7-14 points early and they complete abandon everything that makes them tough and put the ball in Petras’ hands.
Dutch and Hockey great points. The under does look tasty in the Iowa game. When it comes to Wisconsin, I just have a feeling they will be able to run the ball. Mertz is garbage but if they can run it he will have easier looks to his TE's and receivers. This is still Illinois and Wisconsin is the better team at home only a TD fav....give me Wisconsin.
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Dutch and Hockey great points. The under does look tasty in the Iowa game. When it comes to Wisconsin, I just have a feeling they will be able to run the ball. Mertz is garbage but if they can run it he will have easier looks to his TE's and receivers. This is still Illinois and Wisconsin is the better team at home only a TD fav....give me Wisconsin.
My numbers went a solid 5-2 against the vegas number this week.
- Losses were Minnesota and Indiana. Minnesota without Ibrahim is a big deal.
- Michigan jumped out to a big lead and set it on cruise control. Again I had some worries about the pass rush, but when they needed it late in the game it was zero issue. Flipped the switch, nice game overall and a very good team in Ann Arbor.
- The Spartans are just awful. Once again receivers running without a defender within 15 yards. Maryland followed up their solid performance from week 4. Love the TE Barker for MSU though, hope DK will offer a nice little prop on him at some point.
- Illinois is no joke! They’re going to pop a few teams, make me nervous the week before ‘the game’
- OSU continued to roll
- Penn st continuing to underwhelm vs weak teams. Going through the motions or troubled waters ahead?
on to week 6!!
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My numbers went a solid 5-2 against the vegas number this week.
- Losses were Minnesota and Indiana. Minnesota without Ibrahim is a big deal.
- Michigan jumped out to a big lead and set it on cruise control. Again I had some worries about the pass rush, but when they needed it late in the game it was zero issue. Flipped the switch, nice game overall and a very good team in Ann Arbor.
- The Spartans are just awful. Once again receivers running without a defender within 15 yards. Maryland followed up their solid performance from week 4. Love the TE Barker for MSU though, hope DK will offer a nice little prop on him at some point.
- Illinois is no joke! They’re going to pop a few teams, make me nervous the week before ‘the game’
- OSU continued to roll
- Penn st continuing to underwhelm vs weak teams. Going through the motions or troubled waters ahead?
haven’t looked at the vegas line but I’d make TCU about 19.5 points better on a neutral field. This literally takes nothing into account though except to YTD performance against whoever has been on the schedule through 5 games. Kansas has some wins that look nice based on preseason ratings but teams like Houston and ISU have been pretty bad. WVU looked atrocious the other night. Not really sure what to make of them yet.
Gameday in Lawrence though, the energy should be off the charts so that home atmosphere will need to be accounted for!
Any key injuries?
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@arubadk
haven’t looked at the vegas line but I’d make TCU about 19.5 points better on a neutral field. This literally takes nothing into account though except to YTD performance against whoever has been on the schedule through 5 games. Kansas has some wins that look nice based on preseason ratings but teams like Houston and ISU have been pretty bad. WVU looked atrocious the other night. Not really sure what to make of them yet.
Gameday in Lawrence though, the energy should be off the charts so that home atmosphere will need to be accounted for!
@arubadk haven’t looked at the vegas line but I’d make TCU about 19.5 points better on a neutral field. This literally takes nothing into account though except to YTD performance against whoever has been on the schedule through 5 games. Kansas has some wins that look nice based on preseason ratings but teams like Houston and ISU have been pretty bad. WVU looked atrocious the other night. Not really sure what to make of them yet. Gameday in Lawrence though, the energy should be off the charts so that home atmosphere will need to be accounted for! Any key injuries?
bryce young
No Gamble No Future
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Quote Originally Posted by HockeyNight11:
@arubadk haven’t looked at the vegas line but I’d make TCU about 19.5 points better on a neutral field. This literally takes nothing into account though except to YTD performance against whoever has been on the schedule through 5 games. Kansas has some wins that look nice based on preseason ratings but teams like Houston and ISU have been pretty bad. WVU looked atrocious the other night. Not really sure what to make of them yet. Gameday in Lawrence though, the energy should be off the charts so that home atmosphere will need to be accounted for! Any key injuries?
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