2023 to date
B1G: 5-1
Props: 4-2
All plays not incl props: 15-17
B1G Ratings week 7:
1. Michigan
2. Penn St +0.8
3. OSU +3.8
4. Maryland +12.7
5. Wisconsin +14.9
6. Nebraska +19.6
7. Purdue +20.6
8. Rutgers +22.3
9. Illinois +24.8
10. MSU +25.6
11. Minnesota +29
12. NW +29.4
13. Iowa +31
14. Indiana +41.5
Really like the card this week (not always a great thing) but I’ve got some plays.
First one I’m looking at and locking in is MSU +4.5. Spartys in shambles on the surface, but digging into the stats they’re net ypg is actually a little bit better to date than the 2021 team that went 11-2. For as much as I called them lucky then, I can admit my in state rival have been less fortunate so far this season. They gave up 716 yards to Washington which skews things even more, one of the best offenses in the country and on a week the program was going through the Mel Tucker fiasco. Take out that game, and I also removed Richmond - their best game statistically. The final number puts them a net +109 ypg. Outgaining Maryland and Iowa in conference. That number puts them behind just 3 teams in the B1G which just so happen to be 3 of the top 6-7 nationally. The number adjustment also puts them at about 2 TDs better than Rutgers on a neutral field. Rutgers tends to be a better home team and have a solid D, but msu moved it on the vaunted Iowa defense without much issue. I expect success here, but word of caution is there will be a QB change this weekend. On the flip side, Rutgers struggles throwing the rock, bottom 15 in the nation and want to run for sure. MSU has actually been significantly better against the pass in 2023 and that includes a game against UW who’s nearly 100 ypg passing ahead of everyone else. Think the next few weeks may offer some sneaky good value on Sparty starting tomorrow. The O has pretty solid depth and some talent on the outside, just need to take care of the football and not shoot themselves in the foot and I like our chances here.
Dont think we will need the points here but in what could make a low scoring trenches battle (total under 40), I’ll take the 4.5 with a smaller ML sprinkle on the side.
Edit: Just saw there is a high probability of rain which I think maybe tilts this towards Rutgers given the style of play. MSU would have at least had a descent advantage in the passing game, still like them in the trenches though. Just less inclined to get spicy on the ML.
I played Rutgers earlier in the week -4.5 and yeah, MSU has the better stats. Sparty could get this one. Maybe I'll counter with small parlay using MSU ml.
Going to be rain at most BIG games. Ann Arbor, wind and rain, West Lafayette, some rain and winds 9-15 mph, Madison wind but no rain, College Park MD, Piscataway NJ, and University Park PA, rain and no wind.
Penn St and Purdue play on grass.
@UNIMAN
Hard not to love Purdue tomorrow. House of horrors for OSU and huge game on deck. Only issue I see is the Purdue run defense isn’t great and if you can’t stop the mediocre OSU ground game it makes the offense pretty tough to contain for a full game. Might take a small ML flier could see Purdue having a shot late or getting bounced by 30+
lot of injuries for OSU right now & can see them holding a couple guys out for next week but they’re deep at most positions on O
Play 2
Michigan/Indiana 1H under 26.5 +102
Look ahead spot for Michigan to the instate rivalry next week vs MSU. Also playing the weather angle even though I hate hate hate doing it 24 hours in advance - Especially since it looks like things may lighten up later in the game as of now.
Anyway without considering that as you can see my rankings consider Indiana the worst team in the B1G by a huge margin. The fact that this will be a ground game helps them here. They gave up 4.6 ypc in week 1 to an OSU team that doesn’t run it all that well and it was only a 23-3 game in good weather. They’ll be able to focus in on the run vs UM, and I think they’ll have success stopping it for the most part. Indiana always plays UM tough, especially the first half (haven’t eclipsed this total the past 2 meetings).
Michigan is only giving up 3 points per first half this year and that’s what Indiana averages offensively so we really can’t count on much from them - an outburst would be if they score a first half TD. On the other side, Michigan and Corum aren’t likely to break any firework-esque TDs, they rarely if ever do anyway and with the defensive focus being on the run I’d expect Michigan will do it’s thing by getting 3-4 yards per run and an occasional 10+ “big play.” This is where the new clock rules help - I think scoring drives will be long ones as long as there are no turnovers / short field situations. Wind also looks to be a factor at 15mph sustained so again really limits the passing games. Indiana got torched by Maryland through the air but they’ve been mostly ok against the run.
Again taking a shot because if this weather report holds tru I think this number plummets to below 24 by kickoff. I honestly still won’t hate it if it’s dry and just windy as for whatever reason Indiana tends to play tough here for at least a half. I also think Indiana +34 for the game given the conditions. Hoping for a HT score of something like 16-3!
@Crazy_Train
Yeah it’s tough to expect anything from Indiana if you liked the over. New OC for Indiana too off a bye week so who knows how quick that comes together.
I do like them for the cover though. M has a huge following so lines are always inflated, plus they’re actually good recently so probably inflated a little more bc books know people will still lay the number. I really don’t think we threaten this number tomorrow and will be happy to get out healthy with a 30-3 type W
Nice play on that 1st half Under of 26.5!!
Purdue QB Card was banged up for the Iowa game and he got hammered by Iowa over and over. No way he is 100% and Purdue missing some key players too. Tough game to cap, lean Buckeye defense stops Boilermakers and Buc offense grinds it out.
Will Franklin push it to beat the spread? I like the points here. 100% chance of rain, Columbus OH on deck, off a bye, grass field, just get out in one piece. Starters should be out by middle of 3rd. But it is Franklin so who knows?
Refunded my Rutgers play on FD.
FD has it too at +5.5 and I have a 1/2 unit play.
Here's a stat; Penn St is dead last in the country for explosive plays. Seems they like to grind things out.
But that Buckeye offensive line needs to improve! Interesting article from Eleven Warriors; https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/film-study/2023/10/141560/film-study-unblocked-linebackers-continued-to-disrupt-ohio-states-running-game-against-maryland
The Buckeyes became far more dependent on outside zone schemes beginning in 2017 upon the hiring of Day and Kevin Wilson to reinvent a stagnant attack. Wilson is considered a guru of zone blocking, having sent countless running backs and linemen to the NFL as a result of his efforts at Northwestern, Oklahoma, and Indiana, leaning heavily on the scheme at each destination.
Wilson is gone and it shows!
Although the lack of explosive plays for Penn St is a concern, I'll take that +5.5.
Hockey love your ratings, but this is what I have with my eyes with the ability to watch 13 games at once and have watched every BIG 10 game this year. I know I will get crucified for it but this is what I see.
1. Michigan
2. Penn State
3. Ohio State
-----------------
4. Wisconsin
----------------
5. Iowa
6. Maryland
7. Rutgers
---------------
8. Nebraska
9. Purdue
10. Minnesota
11. MSU
12. Illinois
13. NW
14. Indiana
Look the BIG 10 is absolute trash this year outside of the Top 3. Wisconsin by process of elimination will win the West. Iowa is 5th because they have 2/3 of their team that is really good(even though the D stats are little distorted this year) and somehow they just win. Maryland is better but they are traditionally a team that falls apart in the second half. I like Rutgers guts and fire. Nebraska is better this year. The rest is just an absolute wreckfest of crap. When the PAC 12 teams come the bottom of the BIG 10 is going to get destroyed. They have to change schemes offensively to keep up with the Jones.
Best play on the board this week is the under in the Wisconsin/Iowa game. That can't get that low enough!
Hit or Miss
@soup-can
Yeah that’s one of those that the numbers lean Wiscy but don’t think I could ever lay that. Won’t be playing it either way.
The 2 I’ve posted are likely the only 2 in conference plays this week. I’ll also have a prop in the morning when seeing what the weather is actually doing. Would probably toss Purdue in a fun all day parlay..
Takes a special kind to bet those under 40pt games! I've done it and don't like it, even when I win. No big kickoff returns!! No big punt returns! No scoop'n scores! No pick-6's!! 
And yet the last three Hawkeye/Badger meetings have all been at or under 35 points. 
Just glancing, believe 12 of the last 19 Hawkeye games have come under 40.
It is totally shit box game when it comes to the total. I am not sure how Iowa gets to 10 and I am not sure Wisconsin is even for real. Feels like 13-6 type game to me. Yes, a punt return or defensive score could happen, but man both these teams for having one loss have big deficiencies. If Iowa for some reason gets the lead, you could see 3-0 at half. If Wisconsin takes off they could be up 10-0 at half. This is a game that screams woof!!!! I like Allen at RB, but I am not sure they will run him enough to make him explosive and wear Iowa's d down. If he is under 20 carries...Iowa could win this game like 9-7. This smells like the game I saw last year when Illinois and Iowa played this type of score.
Hit or Miss
Well it’s cold, light drizzle and minimal wind in MI this morning. Forecast still looks like some moderates rains and wind so sticking with that total.
Full card:
1) Mich/Indiana under 26.5 1H
2) MSU +4.5
3) Oregon +3.5
4) Missouri +2.5
5) Miami +3
Prop will be posted closer to noon given the weather potentially effecting so many of these games in B1G country today. May just go back to ol faithful Colston Loveland at 29.5 yards. One guy I love today is AJ Barner from Mich - former Hoosier - his line is 14.5 & the TD prop +490. Think they make a point to get him the ball at some in this game - would expect a ton of targets (weather permitting) esp if the game is well in hand. Also LOVE the number on the Illini RB today against Maryland but last I heard he’s a game time decision so can’t really pull the trigger there either. Prop is TBD.
GL
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