After what happened to me last year in what was literally the best back door cover I've ever experienced, I can't believe I'm betting against Cincy this year in the same bowl. In what will amount to a consolation prize for a Bearcats squad that lost a tough season finale at home against Louisville, I don't see them being motivated to play in what is virtually a home game for the Tarheels.
Breaking down the numbers, it looks to be a pretty even match-up. But Cincy has played the 120th toughest schedule in the country. That "stellar" D you're reading about on ESPN.com is a little deceiving. Enter UNC's dual threat Marquis Williams who may be the best QB in the FBS that nobody has ever heard of. After taking over starting duties in November, Williams saved UNC's season leading the Heels to 4 wins in their last 5 games to make them bowl eligible. The motivation factor is there. Their offensive play caller, Blake Anderson, was hired to coach Arkansas State but will still be on the sidelines in the Belk bowl which is huge when operating an up-tempo spread offense. It also means he will be putting his foot on the gas to "show off" a little in his UNC finale.
If Cincy's D decides to show up for some reason, I see field position being the deciding factor. UNC is ranked 13th in Net Punting. Cincy ranks 109. UNC also leads the nation in Punt return yardage. Remember the name Ryan Switzer. Good luck. Go Tarheels.
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