Best way to hedge TCU

I placed a future on TCU to win at the beginning of November $50/2000. Is there anyway to hedge this with this big of a line?

@Illwildcats

Really depends on the risk/reward that you personally are comfortable with, but other than that it’s just math as far as pre-game hedging goes.  I’d make a quick spreadsheet or even by hand of what the payout scenarios are for taking Georgia ML.  Know the numbers.

could take GA ML and TCU + points too if you want to try to middle those two.

I would not recommend this but if you’re a big risk taker then you can wait until in-game and hope TCU starts strong.  Still need to know your numbers going in.  TCU up 7-0 to start the game is probably GA -5.5/-6 live which is ML what,… - low 200s.  Anyway, if TCU doesn’t start strong then you could miss a reasonable hedge opportunity altogether.

Anyway, do some math and you’ll see the options you have.  And every guy is different on their risk/reward comfort levels.  You need to decide that part on your own but I think it will come to you if you run the numbers.

@TD21

 Thanks TD, you’ve always been one of the better ones on here. 

@Illwildcats

Not sure I was much help as I didn’t give a specific answer like some might try to do.  What I suggested is really a broad general suggestion for you or the next person that comes along and asks about hedging a Futures ticket.

There’s not necessarily one be all, end all answer of exactly what you must do.  There’s definitely some things not to do.  But as far as picking what to do within a reasonable range of outcomes, that’s kind of a personal stance on risk/reward.

There's no good way to hedge such a big dog. Best I can think of is a 4 team 14 point teaser @-200 with a couple WWFNFL games

Nothing you can really do unless you want to put a 1000 on Georgia get like 200$ lol

It’s a tough one. Agreed on the live play with TCU getting up 2 or 3 tuddys. At the point I may let it ride lol

All I know is when I DON'T hedge, I don't win.  When I hedge, the bet comes in.  I tend to do a small hedge that would pay me back my original bet.   In this case TD is right it's hard to do... If you do Georgia ML at 490 to win 100 buck, you either win 50 bucks or win 1510......

Do you have a time machine?

put 20000 on georgia ML.  

@TD21

 Agree regarding the risk/reward but I think something else is also worth mentioning here. It’s definitely risky to hope tcu goes up early to allow you to bet the other side HOWEVER you’ll be taking a risk either way. For example, if you hedge the bet for half in Georgia ml pregame (to win a very meager profit compared to your original potential $2000 win) and then TCU DOES go up early, you will have lost a ton of money in opportunity cost. Personally, that would piss me off more than if I didn’t hedge and they get crushed.

Again, all comes down to personal preference.

Since the original bet was only $50, I’d let it ride and try to find a good opportunity live. There’s really not much to do IMO since $2k isn’t enough to risk losing a lot of profits for a marginal profit with a high ML fav. Just sweat the game and have fun IMO. 

@Morphine8X

Agreed that a strategy could be to do a combination of pre-game hedge for a small win and attempt to follow it up with an additional in-game hedge at a better ML price.  

One makes this typ of a wager for the huge payout.  These are gambles.  The way out of these subtract so much from the original wager because the original bet was so small.  One literally has to toss off a lot of the value to make any sort of hedge worthwhile. 

One knows this.  You cant be smart here and circumvent luck. You made it this far ride it out. 

@NobelCross105

 seriously 20000 on Georgia was that a smart a*s*s comment 

You can't really hedge that. It's a 50 buck bet, you're going to get a good run for your money.

I have a Georgia future. I am in a much better position to hedge. But I'm not going to. If they were going to lose they would have went down last game.

If I was you I'd throw 50-100 bucks on an over/under play. Then you have a 50% chance of breaking even/50 bucks profit on the game, and a small chance at the big payout.

Yeah the futures conundrum have a fun 40-1 bet almost there TCU slayed all the dragons then they get to the natty and just my quick calc but seems like only lock in about 6-1 of it or 1/7 of the payout 300 bucks or so which seems a little disappointing ..  if you need 300 bucks then lock it in but maybe more fun seeing if TCU can hang in there for at least a quarter or so ..

I don't think the line drops suddenly w TCU TD on first drive though I'd be more than happy to take UGA -7 let alone -6.5 in that scenario because we wouldn't have seen the Dawg offense yet and feels likely they will match serve and the line bounces back .. Think you get it to 7 if TCU D can also get a stop or at least if it looks like Frog D made UGA struggle down the field for a FG .. but in all likelihood say if it's 7-7 then think the move is see if TCU can get another score .. im guessing books are already taking a bit of TCU action so if Frogs are up 7 and lookin like a shootout they know that which side the money is gunna come floodin in on BIG TIME .. think that's a reasonably possible scenario after a quarter or so and maybe you can lock in a G or more at that point if you shopped around .. or maybe .. LET IT RIIIIIIDE!!! lol 

Obviously you could kill your bet in 30 seconds waiting for the right in-game odds but also consider the situation .. you're only risking 300 or so .. not 2000 .. 

I have a TCU future at 18-1, $50 bucks on it .

I'll lay $50 on Ga minus the number.

I also had $150 each on TCU +points and ml vs Michigan so I'm ahead 

Bol on whatever you do and enjoy the game

Idk if this is the best strategy but I’m teasing UGA -6 pre-game and I will look for a live bet opportunity for a UGA ML that I feel is a value.

if the game gets out of hand, at least I know I have that locked in. 

if TCU is hanging around there might be a -3 or better that I can play.

fwiw I have a TCU +1200 ticket.

@Illwildcats

 Bro this is a wild time. On Dec 31 in the morning, I bet $1000 on TCU beating Georgia +3000 and TCU beating Ohio State +4000. I thought TCU could beat Michigan so I rolled the dice, once I got passed Michigan, I was chillen, I would have preferred Ohio State but now We stuck with Geogia, my strategy will be to bet Double/Result. TCU/Geogia @+1000 so I can net north of $27K. I will be sweating bullets for the entire 1st half. If the 1st half gets out of hand, I will then look for a back door cover late in the game. 

@Illwildcats

 you wagered $50, not a lot of coin. You can start hedging with UGA this and TCU that and end up losing more than $50. Just be happy your in a position to win $2k off a $50 wager. Let it ride. Only way to safety hedge is to take UGA ML, but the vig on that is absurd. 

-Fireman

Thanks for the input fellas, a bunch of good info here. It was only $50 so I let it ride, and bridge might have nailed it saying it could go in 30 seconds waiting for a good live number ??