Well guys it is sad that we have 3.5 weeks left of college football. I've had some ups and downs this year but i finished the regular season 33-27-6 +$4,760. Before i give the write-up i want to give my reason for why this is the biggest play i've had despite the fact i love the game
1. I have enough of an accumulated bankroll to take a shot on this game. I feel as gamblers regardless of how much you bet when you get enough of an accumulated bankroll and you see a game you like you press the action and raise your bet size
2. I want to make clear because in years past in hoops this came up where someone says "Well Pack i liked team A and you like B so i'll go with B" No....If you like the other side....bet the other side. No one should ever change your mind on a game
Now my play today is:
Boise State +7 for $1,650
Las Vegas Bowl taking place today and this is the 1st game between these 2 since the famous Lagarette Blount punch game. The Ducks come in 7-5 {5-6 ATS} winning their last 2 to get to this bowl and beat Orgeon State by 632 points a few weeks back. Coach Taggart{An ATS machine as a dog} has moved on and Mario Cristobal takes his place a guy that IMO got a raw deal at FIU. Justin Herbert is healthy and ready to go completing 66% of his passes with a TD-INt ratio of 13-3. Lot of talk about Royce Freeman not playing today but Oregon has a great stable of RB's so it shouldn't matter too much as they average 268 rush yards a game{8th in FBS
Boise State is 10-3{8-5 ATS} off winning the MW title vs Fresno State 17-14. I've loved how Coach Harsin has handled the 2 qb's this year Rypien with 2515 yards and a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. The grad transfer Montell Cozart has a 10 TD 1 INT ratio and whoever is throwing has 2 good weapons in Cedrick Wilson 73-1290 and 6 TD's and the TE Jake Roh with his 39 catches for 9 TD's. Broncos come in with the 20th best rush defense allowing 126 rush yards a game. Boise has lost 1 game since their bye that being the Regular season finale to Fresno State because that game didn't matter as Boise was guaranteed the home game win or lose because the MW decides hoemfield in the MW title game....by the old BCS computer
The Ducks did have injuries this year but injuries don't excuse a lack of discipline. The Ducks are the most penalized team in the sport committing 112 penalties for 1053 yard averaging 88 yards a game in penalties. They have lost 11 fumbles in their 12 games and come in just barely with a positive TO ratio of +1. Its a defense that likes to go for the big play. Boise State's TO ratio is +11 and in their 13 games has 13 Forced fumbles. Since their bye the most points they've allowed in regulation is 19 to Air Force
I love the intangibles for Boise in this game. The rare spot of them as a dog in a bowl matchup, The fact LY they got destroyed in the Cactus Bowl vs Baylor. And you have the Cozart factor. Here's a guy who got killed at Kansas and couldn't win, Graduates could've gone and started at a lot of schools and said i want to be a part of a winner and went to Boise State knowing they had an established qb in Rypien. I think Coach Harsin will use Montell a lot in this game and will try to get him in the end zone a time or 2
LY i bet this game and took SD State as the dog and they rolled. I had Boise as a 2 point fave. I think the wrong team is favored in the game. This will be a high scoring game and in the end when i have a team as a fave and the oddsmakers have them as a dog the play for me is obvious. I like Boise to get their 8th 11 win season in the last 12 years and win outright
BOL guys
Your thoughts are welcome
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