Not sure why it's taken me so long to jump in, I think I've had a couple of plays I wanted to post but then my time got hijacked as my mom has had to go to the ER twice over the holiday (she's trending in the right direction now) pulling me away from my trip early. So there's been some chaos on my end but the season has been profitable. I usually don't tail others but I did so on a few games, feeling confident to post these few:
UNDER 48 (SMU/BC): Many reasons I am on this under and not because either of these teams are consistently banking unders. In fact, it's a bit of the opposite as BC is a baffling 8-3-1 to the OVER. But in a new surroundings, a baseball stadium nonetheless, as well as wind and rain, I think they buck that trend. Mainly b/c SMU is playing with a backup QB, so it's impossible for me to think that they will average the same amount of points they usually do. If that were the case, the total would NOT be this low. That being said, BC has NOT played well in the second half of the year, but I do think they will be motivated here. The opposite can be said for SMU, so I personally don't see them scoring many points. Perhaps SMU blows them out or BC makes it a game, but in either result, I think the UNDER will come through. Very early game too during the holidays, so might sprinkle some on the FH UNDER as well...
OVER 47,5 (NCSU/KSU)...BIG PLAY!!!:. Coming out of the gate with a BIG PLAY. I really like this spot for an OVER, K-State missing many pieces, especially defensively. NC State going back to Armstrong at QB, who has experience and was the starter initially. The backup QB for K-State, Avery Johnson, is a very capable player who already has shown his prowess in their last game against Texas Tech, and I think that continues tonight against a mediocre Wolfpack D. Play this with confidence, should be a fun game in Orlando.
I'm EXTREMELY tempted to back the Hurricanes not because I love them but more b/c of the line movement. I initially liked Rutgers in a toss up game especially given how bad Miami has been in bowls, but something tells me they get it done here. Will revisit this in a few, but want to get the thread out. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all..
Not sure why it's taken me so long to jump in, I think I've had a couple of plays I wanted to post but then my time got hijacked as my mom has had to go to the ER twice over the holiday (she's trending in the right direction now) pulling me away from my trip early. So there's been some chaos on my end but the season has been profitable. I usually don't tail others but I did so on a few games, feeling confident to post these few:
UNDER 48 (SMU/BC): Many reasons I am on this under and not because either of these teams are consistently banking unders. In fact, it's a bit of the opposite as BC is a baffling 8-3-1 to the OVER. But in a new surroundings, a baseball stadium nonetheless, as well as wind and rain, I think they buck that trend. Mainly b/c SMU is playing with a backup QB, so it's impossible for me to think that they will average the same amount of points they usually do. If that were the case, the total would NOT be this low. That being said, BC has NOT played well in the second half of the year, but I do think they will be motivated here. The opposite can be said for SMU, so I personally don't see them scoring many points. Perhaps SMU blows them out or BC makes it a game, but in either result, I think the UNDER will come through. Very early game too during the holidays, so might sprinkle some on the FH UNDER as well...
OVER 47,5 (NCSU/KSU)...BIG PLAY!!!:. Coming out of the gate with a BIG PLAY. I really like this spot for an OVER, K-State missing many pieces, especially defensively. NC State going back to Armstrong at QB, who has experience and was the starter initially. The backup QB for K-State, Avery Johnson, is a very capable player who already has shown his prowess in their last game against Texas Tech, and I think that continues tonight against a mediocre Wolfpack D. Play this with confidence, should be a fun game in Orlando.
I'm EXTREMELY tempted to back the Hurricanes not because I love them but more b/c of the line movement. I initially liked Rutgers in a toss up game especially given how bad Miami has been in bowls, but something tells me they get it done here. Will revisit this in a few, but want to get the thread out. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all..
SMU (-7) FH: This is very favorable given the mismatch in the SMU offense, even with a backup QB, and the porous BC defense. I do very much like the under but that doesn't mean that SMU can't get a lead here and coast to victory. Going to be interesting to see if BC can keep some possession to avoid getting smoked but I think in the FH that will be a tall task.
SMU (-7) FH: This is very favorable given the mismatch in the SMU offense, even with a backup QB, and the porous BC defense. I do very much like the under but that doesn't mean that SMU can't get a lead here and coast to victory. Going to be interesting to see if BC can keep some possession to avoid getting smoked but I think in the FH that will be a tall task.
Not sure about the over. Rutgers D is really good and Miami with their 3rd string QB. Rutgers strength is their secondary and Miami WR's pretty much all active. Defensively Miami is missing some pieces and Rutgers not really great offensively, I think like 80th or so in CFB, also they like to run the ball. In a baseball stadium with grass that is usually slower than surfaces being played on in NCAAF, I wouldn't trust the over too much.
Also of note, Schiano teams have gone 5-1 ATS in bowls with him while Cristobal I believe has seen his squads go 3-5 ATS. To me that signals lack of motivating by the coach. Knew SMU would lay an egg how could they not just hoping the UNDER comes in...
Not sure about the over. Rutgers D is really good and Miami with their 3rd string QB. Rutgers strength is their secondary and Miami WR's pretty much all active. Defensively Miami is missing some pieces and Rutgers not really great offensively, I think like 80th or so in CFB, also they like to run the ball. In a baseball stadium with grass that is usually slower than surfaces being played on in NCAAF, I wouldn't trust the over too much.
Also of note, Schiano teams have gone 5-1 ATS in bowls with him while Cristobal I believe has seen his squads go 3-5 ATS. To me that signals lack of motivating by the coach. Knew SMU would lay an egg how could they not just hoping the UNDER comes in...
MIAMI (+3): I am biting here and doing just as I have done most of my betting career. Going against public sentiment even though I agree with the public backing Rutgers. But when this spread swings that much, in a game where the transfer portal is not as active as some of the others, I will take the FG as I think Miami breaks their futile bowl run today. Regardless, I see a tough, low scoring game, much like the Wasabi Bowl. The TOTAL is a bit low for me even though both defenses will be ready and Rutgers riding their RB. Win or lose, I stand behind this even though Vegas must have cleaned up on SMU and any of the dynamic and live betting.
Happy to hear what everyone thinks, but my gut is telling me the Canes as are the numbers. I expect a close game so teasing this game, really in any direction, could also be a good play. Might tease MIAMI (+9) WITH OVER 41.5 (NCSU/KSU).
MIAMI (+3): I am biting here and doing just as I have done most of my betting career. Going against public sentiment even though I agree with the public backing Rutgers. But when this spread swings that much, in a game where the transfer portal is not as active as some of the others, I will take the FG as I think Miami breaks their futile bowl run today. Regardless, I see a tough, low scoring game, much like the Wasabi Bowl. The TOTAL is a bit low for me even though both defenses will be ready and Rutgers riding their RB. Win or lose, I stand behind this even though Vegas must have cleaned up on SMU and any of the dynamic and live betting.
Happy to hear what everyone thinks, but my gut is telling me the Canes as are the numbers. I expect a close game so teasing this game, really in any direction, could also be a good play. Might tease MIAMI (+9) WITH OVER 41.5 (NCSU/KSU).
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