Bowl Picks with Write Ups - Second Thread

Starting a new thread for the last few days of the bowls.  So far sitting at 6-2 and plus 16.95 stars.  Some more picks below. 

4* Minnesota -10

4* Pitt-UCLA Over 53.5

3* Ohio St – GA Over 62

2* Ohio St +7

2* Duke -3.5

2* NC State – MD Under 46.5 

The Ohio St game write ups are on the previous thread. 

2* Duke -3.5  - Duke has no key players that are reported to being out.  UCF will have OKeefe out (top receiver with 73 catches) and 2 def starters.  The key though is Plumlee.  A writer for UCF wrote a couple weeks back that word was that Plumlee wasn’t anywhere near healthy.  There has been 3.5 weeks since he last played – when asked this week he said he is getting better and taking it day by day.  I think if he were fully healthy his comment would be different.  Hamstring injuries are tough – Plumlee relies on his running as he is very explosive when healthy.  If he is not able to run much this greatly impacts this game.  He then goes to a below avg QB and will also be without OKeefe.  The backup transferred so that leaves the third stringer if Plumlee exits – this would be a major problem for UCF. 

Both teams have 2 common opponents – GA Tech and Temple.  Both handled Temple easily.  Some will point to the tech game as a plus for UCF since they won and Duke lost.  Some points to that – UCF played them at home – game was 16-10 into the fourth (UCF had block punt td) then UCF won 27-10 but GA Tech outgained them 452-333 with 10 less plays.  Duke played at Tech and they were outgained 412-278 and this game was after Collins was fired and team was playing better.  So to me they are a wash.    

UCF played a tougher schedule and if both teams were at full strength I think UCF is the better team however that is not the case here.  With the players out and Plumlee’s mobility impacted this shifts the game to Duke.  Duke is a solid team and I think they will be able to score on a UCF def that gave up 413 ypg and 27.4 ppg in their conf games.  Leonard is a solid QB and Duke averaged 401 ypg and 32.5 pts in ACC games.  Duke was also very good against the run and only gave up 110 ypg and 3.57 ypc in ACC games.  Elko will have them prepared and it wouldn’t surprise me if Plumlee doesn’t play the whole game.  I think this will be a good game and Duke gets this win.  If Plumlee exits, I think they win it a little easier. 

Prediction:  Duke by 6

4* Minn -10  - This is a big line for Minn but this is a great matchup and the losses for Syr are significant.  Syr will be without their best player – Tucker, best off lineman, top 2 corners, safety, and both coordinators.  Minn loses 2 guys in secondary that played but they have good depth in the secondary. Even without the losses this is a difficult matchup for Syr.  They struggle with physical run games and that is the strength of Minn.  They were last in the ACC in rushing ypg allowed at 170 and they are small up front.  On offense they only averaged 123 ypg at 3.78 ypc in ACC even with Tucker.  They are playing an excellent secondary and a very solid defense.  Minn was third in the nation in third down percentage given up against FBS teams and they led the big ten (Syr is 116 in nation in third down percentage on offense). 

Ibrahim will be playing in this game and this says a lot.  He easily could have opted out but is showing what type of player he is by playing.  This team seems to be together and Fleck is 3-0 in bowl games.  Syracuse is missing several key players (NFL players) and without their coordinators who are both excellent.  Last 2 games Minn put up 399 and 416 yds in cold weather against Iowa and Wisc.  Kaliakmanis threw for 319 in the last game and should be confident in this one.  If somehow Morgan plays that is fine as well.  Minn is an excellent third down team (44 percent in big ten) and is fifth in the nation in penalties (Syr is 116).  This is a lethal run game with Ibrahim and should run all over Syracuse in this game while their defense makes it difficult for Syracuse to put up many points.  Minn isn’t a quick scoring team so if they get down 7-0 it will be a grind.  I think they will have an impressive performance and Ibrahim gets up near 200 yds.  I expect them to handle a Syr team that faded down the stretch and has too many key pieces missing to overcome. 

Prediction:  Minn by 18

4* Pitt-UCLA Over 53.5  - UCLA will have their key players playing for this one.  For Pitt – numerous opt outs that mainly impact the defense.  Pitt has some depth on their def line but they lost significant players on def.  Dennis is the biggest one as their linebacking corp is their weakness.  Hill is also a big one as he was the leader of that secondary.  On offense – Slovis wasn’t very good so Patti might actually be an upgrade as he adds mobility.  Abanikanda was tremendous however Hammond isn’t far from him so the drop of won’t be as big as you would think.  They are also solid on the off line.   Indications are Wayne is playing so that is big.  I don’t think you will see any drop off with the Pitt offense. 

UCLA will score on anyone – they scored at least 30 in every game but one (28 against Ariz).  On the flip side they give up points – gave up at least 28 in 7 of their 9 pac 12 games (only 2 were Col and Stan – 2 worst off in pac 12).  UCLA is number 13 on pace of play – they will dictate this total.  Pitt is number 111 and they will prefer to run the ball.  UCLA gained 508 ypg at 7.09 ypp in the pac 12.  The losses are significant for Pitt so I think they will have success in this game and take advantage of the Pitt linebackers with the run/pass option.  Them scoring will force Pitt to open it up and they still have enough talent on off to score on a below avg def who gave up 437 ypg and 6.13 ypp in the pac 12. 

Its nice to get a total in the lower 50s – a lot of the bowls have been going under but this total is off.  It hasn’t fully adjusted to the UCLA players playing.  I expect it to rise by a couple pts before gametime.  I expect a good amount of points in this one and really like this over. 

Prediction:  66 pts

Add a 1.5* play on Over 60 plus 190 – this line is in BetRivers   

 Nice write ups

You the man. Thanks so much for sharing your winners.

Thanks for the comments.  I’m adding a 2 star on Clemson -4.

if you look at the teams that have Tenn problems it was Pitt and GA - talking defensively.   Both tackle well - pitt #2 and GA #7 and were able to get pressure.  GA isn’t a pressure team but they blitzed more in that game than normal.  Both have the athletes on the back end to hold up.  Clemson does these things as well - they are #5 in nation in tackling and get great pressure and have athletes on the back end.

Hyatt being out is huge - the guy stretched the def and averaged around 19 yds per catch.  Milton is a downgrade as well - tenn with 2 def starters also out - Clemson has a couple as well but they r deep on the def line.  I think they will get better QB play in this one.  The ACC has looked good in the bowl games - both Syr and UNC outplayed their opp and both could have won.  I think the SEC is a little overrated (look at them in bowls so far) I like Clemson to get this win.  

Clemson by 10 

Just wanted to say thank you and great job overall

@monkeebooger

 You’re welcome and thank you for the comment.  Hopefully the info was helpful.  

We are finishing up on the season - Bowl record is 11-4 and plus 26.2 stars.  This will be my last posted play on the year.  Hopefully can finish on a win.  

One of the main reasons for the bet is how physical Utah is.  I think this creates challenges for Penn St.  Utah has similarities to Michigan and they are very balanced.  I like Rising at QB and their off line.  Both teams pressure the QB well – Utah only gave up 9 sacks all year so they should hold up well in this one.  I also think they played a tougher schedule.  These are 2 good teams and I think Utah will be able to run better in this one and Rising leads them to a win in a close game.

Prediction:  Utah by 4

@CFBLMONSTER

 How many stars on Utah? Thanks again CFBL. Appreciate you sharing your thoughts once again 

Not betting on the championship game?

@monkeebooger

 Sorry - 1.5 stars - it didn’t copy over when I pasted it. 

@haymo

 Doubtful - it isn’t uncommon for me to not bet on the champ or some of the major bowls.  I wont bet on it just cause it’s on and because it is the champ.  I can tell you there is no way I would take TCU - not sure i will like GA enough to lay the pts.