BRIDGE PLAYS - WEEK 11

Week 9 went 0-4 . Makes us 9-10 YTD . Week 9 was tough, first tough week after a string of winning and pushing weeks. Took a week to reflect. Ok reflection time is over, let’s get started.

FIRST PLAY
S.Miss +7.5 @ Rich

What do we think of Baylor, WKU and LaTech. In addition to big passing and formidable enough running games we think of blowing out Rice HUGE. S.Miss easily fits that category and their run game has actually shown up pretty well this year and HUGE when they play the doldrums of their schedule… And “Doldrum” is a status Rice hovers ever-so-gently over. We’ve picked S.Miss a number of times and they’ve done excellent by us. Only blowup against Marshall and on the road at that…. There’s a difference in the competition there and we really like S.Miss against the lesser competition who they’ve been beating up on the reg..avg 30+ in victories against UNT, UTSA, Char and UTEP spanning Oct – Nov and held those teams to avg of 156 pass and 140 rush. Rice can’t say they beat up anybody after losing to UTEP last week, yikes. The 7.5 is a little surprising but S.Miss has flown under the radar all year with loose lines… but Rice sucking is not a surprise. So I don’t think we get a dip to 7 but 8 is not much more risk so not much risk in seeing what happens with the line. We’re gunna lay the number now and don’t suggest buying the hook on this one. 

VERDICT: S.MISS +7.5 

2ND PLAY

UtahSt @ AF+1  

UTS just played UNM holding their rush to season low and UNM's an option attack so won't be the kneecap blocking surprises... but they still lost to UNM by 1 as 20pt favs!....... I'm keying on UTS giving up rush yardage to wyoming and SDSU in bulk after starting the season so well. also home teams have been giving UTS fits 2-3 ATS which includes covering the DD point spread against their biggest rival, Utah,  earlier this year. The other cover being against Fresno whose been absent the last few seasons. UTS is 1-4 SU on the road and just can’t seem to get in any groove away from home. AF's pass has been a good little supplement at times but the run moves the ball in C.Springs. Last game they were also held to a season low at ~200 but against rivals army who play the same game and still a 17pt win. Chalk that “close” one up to running about 70% of the plays they’re used to. Trends seem favorable for both but a look at the covers matchup and AF has a ton of strong trends which I think is a little more telling with the service academy trip option teams that haven’t changed in a hundred years. I will add that UTS just looks lazy when they could have locked up a bowl with a win LW against a fledgling N.Mexico team.

The X factor, and the reason the line might be tighter than expected, is Chuckie Keaton is back and starts in all likelihood after the way last week went. Looking at his numbers when healthy it’s not been impressive since, well, @ Airforce 2013..i remember it well, he blew them up for 360 passing 77 rushing. A lot’s happened since then including hanging on the bench for 26 games and poor performances with a sprinkle of mediocrity here and there. Anyway, just thought I’d point that out as incase Chucky’s Return Part 4 is too darn scary.

SALUTE TO OUR VETERANS   AND GO AIR FORCE +1

UNNOFISH, LATE-LEAN PLAY 

TCU -45. If they could massacre one team from last year who'd it be. Duh the one team that kept them out the playoffs. Ironically they also had one loss last year so expect a game plan this time and some film review. My issue with making it an official Bridge Play is there is ZERO reason to take Kansas in this spot as they are who they are and this is the one time anyone has wanted revenge against this team in like 10 years. Thus why would we ever get fair odds on this one? VI says 73% of spread money on TCU. BS my guess is 99.993%. i usually get left with a burning sensation in these kind of situations so just not an offish play. Logic almost put S.Miss down here but other factorials made them a Play.

Also, the Doctson injury may seem cleared up but nothing is clear in the CFB injury world. Coaches will promise you the world that the players who will get you a win are playing. Even still, once the margin gets high enough to remove the "close against kansas" argument theres not much reason not to rest the players. So just a few stickey facors i can't make a play on but yes i think kansas doesn't walk straight for a week after this one.