WEEK 4 .. IN REVIEW ...
WEEK 4: 5-4-1 55%
YTD: 22-19-1 54%
Technically a 4-0 Week Record.. boom! ... Need to break the 1-under par cycle...
1. BUFFALO +14 - WIN
2. SDSU +3 - LOSS
3. WISCO -3 - WIN
4. AIR FORCE +9.5 - LOSS
5. APPY ST / UNC OVER 57.5 - WIN
6. TULSA -3 - TIE
7. NORTH TEXAS -19 - WIN
8. ASU / COLORADO H1 UNDER 24.5 - LOSS
9. MSU / NW H1 UNDER 18.5 - WIN
10. AF TEAM TOTAL OVER 23.5 - LOSS
BRIDGE PLAYS
1. NAVY +12
Taking a shot here that Navy is better than advertised based on stat performance albeit vs lower competition... Navy did pull off a big win last year and think it's the kinda team that just gives certain teams fits... Navy has had bye weeks before ECU and 12 days off before this game.. slight worry with Air Force on deck possible look ahead but with all these bye weeks they've had plenty of time to prep for this one...
BRIDGE PLAYS
2. ASU +3.5
Think it's a real tough spot for Cal after tough first few games Wash and N.Texas and loooong travel day to Ole'Miss.. the stat story looks to me like that D might be getting a little tired, Ole' Miss putting up over 500 yards of offense and almost 100 more than Cal amazing they didn't also outscore these guys.... ASU seemed to find some from their team last week in a loss vs Colorado... This is essentially the same spot ASU was in this week for Cal and think we might get a similar result here with D playing with the volume way down and think we know Cal's Offense is really not good.,..
BRIDGE PLAYS
3. KANSAS STATE +5.5
I'll take points here with K-State's NDSU rough and tumble style of play... Okey State struggled passing the last two which is what I'd be worried about vs this team.. they've done much better running and that's kinda where I'd expect the K-State D to be able to slow them down and choke their D out when they get the ball back... If not for some big mistakes and fumbles during their trip to Starkville they would have won that game by much more than they did .. After a bye for K-State and Okey State after a UT showdown, maybe this line should be reversed huh?... Might make this a bigger play.
4. MICHIGAN -27.5
Just going to take a chance here that the hand of Harbaugh will spank this offense into finding itself this week... not much else to say but history of this one is clearly showing Rutgers is their favorite whipping boy.... Jim needs to whip something big this week...
5. MISS ST +12
Think this is just toooo low of a scoring grind it out kinda game to be handing out 12 free points.. Like the Miss St backup QB and RB combo with Hill is strong.. nobody's really stopped these guys cold yet and they've played a couple gutty D's in K-State and Kentucky.... . so let's give them the benefit of the doubt and see what they can do on a conference roadie.. It's not like they won't be up for it..
I also mentioned that TA&M had a fade alert on early in the season and think we found out why.. Should note that Auburn might be good but some questions when I look them over in the stat department.... Happy to take 12 here..
6. CHARLOTTE +1 - Char O is much improved this year... Still wondering about Fla Atlantic O but D is just not looking to be very good... I expect we find out this week that when Charlotte is not playing Appy State or Clemson that their D is still looking pretty good .. on par with last year's .. which was sneaky good..
7. OREG ST +4 - Just a bad spot for Stanford, Oreg St off bye, Stan off brutal start, long travels and now another road game... I think Oreg St is improved and clearly Stan is clearly degenerated in a major way from LY.. I'll take the improved team over the degen team + a few points almost any day...
8. TOLEDO +3.5 - Tough spot for BYU after 4 reallllly tough games and now going off on the road... loooong travel to Toledo.. Rockets had a long roady of their own last week which was kindof a dark horse late in the day upset pick against them and Co.St almost pulled it off with halfway decent backup QB... I'll give Toledo a much better shot at home after we saw BYU D totally collapse last week and now off on a long business trip.. I wanted more points in this one but will take the 3.5 and see what happens in this kinda interesting spot play...
9. ARKANSAS +21.5 - I'll just take the points here and see what happens ... such an embarrassment .. could be they're past crush depth but funny feeling they just didn't show up and we'll get a max effort here.... whatever that is im not sure.. A&M and Auburn looked like both petal to the metal last week and A&M's max payload was just not what everyone thought it would be...
10. VIRGINIA +11
Kinda gotta do this one .. ND off a big game and UVA off almost slipping and falling in a look ahead spot... I said I don't like UVA as much this year and think they won't have nearly as much success on offense... that's true.. but the fade spot on them is coming when they are big favs .. like last week... and catching extra points off of a poor performance and let the D keep you close is the best time to take these guys...
Let's see if I can find a few favorites out there huh?..
11. PENN STATE -7
Found a favorite to play.. Both team off a bye and neither with especially tough must win / max effort teams on deck... Like PSU and think we're getting some value here especially with Franklin's propensity for spiking the ball on teams for the cover...
Last time we saw Penn St they were in a bit of a dogfight vs Pitt.. well that makes a little more sense now that we see how gutty they are... a free TD might have been too much if we didn't have some kinda springboard like that for Nitneys to get motivated from... And on the flipside I think it's safe to lean toward Maryland was a little more overhyped than we expected.. especially after losing to the team that lost to buffalo and buffalo lost by 32 to Penn St lol... Penn State by 33 per that math...
Good Luck!
Word up BA and definitely like when I find a bunch early and I look back and it's not all favorites lol...
ASU already up to 4.5 and K-State up to +6 ... think both are even taking odds at those numbers right now... Might have to launch a bigger torpedo if that K-State line gets to 7....
Waiting for Marshall +2.5 to maybe get +3 or more would be great think they're in a good spot this week ....
Arkey State +6.5 to maybe hit +7... Troy stats last year were among the worst of the really high value ATS cover teams ... there's only maybe one if any that had some of the stat changes that they had and managed to win big money... in past teams this has meant doom and destruction the next year.... although I'm hesitent to just light troy up because they did have that QB situation last year.. I would like the market to give me a little extra value where I can get it..
MARSHALL +3
Both teams off a bye ... Cincy with a short week to super showdown vs UCF... it's a non-con roadie with a real big one on deck and I wouldn't discount what the home field value is for these kinda games... Ohio team crossing their side of the river for a Saturday night showdown to see whose the upper crust of the non-P-5'ers is ... Just can't auto-assume the better team from the pre-season mag is gunna win this one.. expect a total backyard brawl here..
Good luck!
Yo Gamblin DAWG... congrats on the BIG WIN last week.... yeah I think ND is not recovering this is a dangerous team .. I really question the offensive prowess of UVA and really hope we don't get behind too big in this one..... this was actually low on my list but gotaa take free points like that when there's a D this good and spot kinda says to go for it... not my biggest play..
Yo Gamblin DAWG... congrats on the BIG WIN last week.... yeah I think ND is not recovering this is a dangerous team .. I really question the offensive prowess of UVA and really hope we don't get behind too big in this one..... this was actually low on my list but gotaa take free points like that when there's a D this good and spot kinda says to go for it... not my biggest play..
UGA / Gamblin' Dawg / Capitol - good luck this week fellas! 
13. NORTHWESTERN +24
Tough to say no to a free 24 for these guys and taking odds i'll play at this spot instead of maybe getting another half point up.. Not a total surprise Mich State bounced back... I think we've got a little of the opposite situation with Wisco. The tough part here is NU has zero O identity other than making mistakes so we're kindof in a spot where we hope they don't blow it on the goal line like they did vs MSU... the D shouldn't be quite as tough and NU run D did their job last week holding Mich St under 3ypc... that might not sound great but consider the D's they've faced in ASU and even Tulsa run D specifically is not bad and we're not seeing an MSU rush that we know for certain is terrible.. they did go 7+ypc vs W.Mich so they're not inept and NU held them to the lowest production thus far.. all things considered think NU can hold out long enough vs what's gotta be a bit of a hangover from one of the all time big wins in Madison..
Good Luck!
14. LIBERTY -7
UNM in a real tough spot here fresh off their 3 point win vs MASSIVE In-State rivalry with NMSU .. (only rival?).. and predictably there were about 4,081,810 scored in that one.. UNM now goes wayyyyyyyy across the country to face a Liberty team that's had the taste of success stomping Buffalo 35-17 and dished another dose of pain vs Hampton 62-27 and you have to think that 1. Hugh Freeze O is finally clicking after (fair to call it) tough opener with Cuse and then some struggles in a roadie @LA-Lafayette ... don't pretend they shoulda rolled all over the Cajuns D just because they have a high powered O' if so you weren't watching the stomping they put on Ohio ... in Athens.... last week... I did ... Cajuns dude... yuge..
Hampton beatdown is ok not that great but handling a very competent Buffalo team that stomped Temple last week is nothing to scoff at.. and we liked buffalo so much we took them in the spread and had them dropped in a couple parlays last week feeling there was a reckoning coming in that spot... hope you enjoyed that one with us.. Expect the spot gods to be shining down on Liberty this week after nice cruising week and Lobos come stumbling into Lynchburg.. adding to this spot potentially is any shortcuts UNM would be expected to make in their travel arrangements due to FIERCE budget actions being taken on that program and safe bet these won't be luxury accommodations getting in a day early and checking out late ... They did schedule the game at 5pm and that was nice but a nice long jetlagged day is prob not the best thing either.. keep tabs on that because a late travel day could really mess these guys up.... oh and also conference on deck... liberty doesn't have that problem..
As far as the actual matchup goes... well... I am not pretending to know all the ins'n'outs here but watching Lib vs Cuse week 1 there's a dude that stands out big time.. GANDY-FRIGGIN-GOLDEN 6'4'' WR great 2018 and he looks like a real superstar .. ~550 yds in 4 games 20/rec and 4TDs and dude is a beast.. UNM's entire secondary stands 5'10 on their tippy toes and half are shorter than that..expect this guy to be a real handful... Don't have a great handle on their run game but let's say returning production is super high per Phil in just about every category for Liberty and we should just expect vs a team that lost their top 8 tacklers and gave up almost 500yds to NMSU and lost to the Flame 52-43 LY that they shouldn't be struggling on offense .. also Lobos lost LY best DL Blackwell to injury so .. fun stuff.. UNM has some of the lowest returning production btw .. every category.. Should note Liberty potential danger spot if QB gets hurt.. looks like potential depth issue there .. main guy has no prob...
8th year of Bob Davie and they switched from triple O in 18 to spread and outfitted with a new OC and DC this year.. for their sake they did stick with the spread O for this year and maybe the only thing pointing their way in this one they did land Liberty's OC from LY.... Lib rolling with Hugh Freeze and think the team is starting to find a guy to rally around... Hard to find a worse spot and actually think Liberty wouldn't have had a good shot without all the extras ..
Good Luck!
Good stuff, Bridge. Let me save you a little typing time here, buddy. As an Ole Miss alumnus I can promise you there is no apostrophe in Ole Miss. You can look it up.
Bridge, I will take your word for Liberty and put some down. Seeing they should be about a 7 point favorite on a neutral field, so with that line and your angle accounted for it just makes sense. Good luck man, keep on winning.
Like Marshall btw and lean Penn State too just playing it more conservative this year.
BOL
BRIDGE PLAY
15. BYU / Toledo Over 59 - played last night not sure if we'll see that one again.. my bad... these two ran it up big last time they played and just feels like we're gunna get another big total here the way BYU D which is the stopper to this play has been through the ringer in the first 4 weeks.. fully expect them to be softened up for the trip here.. we're already over the key number so 60.5 where it's at for you now is not a crazy jump.. 31 - 30 covers both, 28-31 I guess would give me a tie lol.. think it goes bigger. - Good Luck
Making it up to you for the above delayed play...
K-STATE ... Team total... looking for 27.5 ... 28 max.... implied based on +4.5 / total 60.... Okey state not very stout in the middle and Cats piling up 350 or maybe much more rushing would not be a surprise from that tough runnin team... Also note Okey state giving up and getting some crazy 3rd down%'s so far this year... I fully expect them to keep giving it up BIG vs these guys especially after a kinda wind outta the sails loss last week..... but 3rd down stuffs has been a REAL specialty for the Cats at 5-31 16% conversions on the year, 4-14 @Miss St ... 0 for BG... 1 for Nicholls... pretty darn good.... Pokes D giving up 50% on the year first 4 games ... which includes oreg st, tulsa and Mcneese homers dont forget...
Will be making that official if / when it shows up... total for that one at 60 and don't think it drops the way everyone seems to like Okey State in this one... not sure why exactly... K-State limits the mistakes this game... which they way toooo many vs Miss St..... and i think we're getting a one-way barn-burner... BIG TIME...
Good Luck!
Bubba - good luck dude.... pressures on me now !!!!.... GIVE US LIBERTY!!!! Best of luck this week brother.. And doubly, especially, for sure good luck NOW!
General - Good stuff man ... def been hearing ALOT about UVA and all but you picked out 3 others that there hasn't been alot of talk about .. well a dog nobody wants to talk about is one we should all be looking into... best of luck on those and this week!
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