CFB 10/19: Three From The Big 10 Plus A Play Against Clueless Trent Dilfer

YTD: 6-6 -0.7 units

all plays 1* so far

I went 2-0 last week, both on Big 10 plays.  Three more this week from the Big 10, plus a play against a bad team with a bad coach.

1* South Florida -13 1/2

UAB deserves everything it's getting for hiring a guy straight out of high school coaching to run their once solid program into the ground.  Trent Dilfer has been a disaster and the program is reeling.  They've been slaughtered in their last three games with no offense and even less defense.  South Florida hasn't played well either but is back home and the four losses were to very good teams.  Revenge is overstated but may be at play here as UAB buried USF last year in Birmingham.  

1* Rutgers -4 1/2

Rutgers was dominated last week by Wisconsin but I see a bounce-back here.  Wisconsin is way better than UCLA and the Bruins are coming off a home loss to a Minnesota team that seems even with Rutgers.  Rutgers defense was excellent until the Wisconsin game and UCLA's offense is really bad.  UCLA might be the worst team in the Big 10.

1* Illinois +3 1/2

Illinois was flat in almost losing in a 50-49 shootout with weak Purdue.  Maybe they were looking ahead.  Michigan is a bad 1-5 ATS as bettors haven't adapted to the difference between last year's national champions and this year's bunch with a new coach, new QB and lots of new skill players.  Love getting the hook here.

1* Nebraska +6 1/2

Indiana is unbeaten but hasn't played a good team all year.  Hoosiers offense is very good but Nebraska's defense has been outstanding.  Both teams are off the bye.  Nebraska's schedule hasn't been that strong but the drubbing of Colorado in week two is turning out to be more impressive than was thought at the time.

Opinion only:
Wisconsin -7 (maybe a trap for Badgers with Penn State next week but they have been dominant the last two weeks)