CFB Week 1 -- 08.29.13 Picks

This seems like it has been the longest off-season ever. I can not wait for the opening kickoff tomorrow night.  Hoping just tosit, relax, have a couple of adult beverages and see the Tarheels get spanked by the Gamecocks.  This game is only for watching for me though.

However, I do have a few games and totals that I like.  This year I am going to try and post my plays to keep a record and hopefully get some useful feedback from the forum.  Information, comments, and opinions are always welcome.

Akron @ Central Florida
  UCF -21.5 (0.75 units)
  over 55 (0.5 unit)
  (1H) over 28 (0.5 units)
Thoughts:  I really like the Knights in this spot.  UCF returns their senior qb Blake Bortles and 4 of the top 5 wr's from last years 10-4 team.  Last year UCF dismantled  Akron on the road 56-14 and with 7 returning starters on offense, I see no reason they won't do so again.

UNLV @ Minnesota
  Minn -14 (0.5 units)
  over 51.5 (0.5 units)
Thoughts:  Last year Minnesota needed a late fg to force overtime and a fg to win this opening game last year in UNLV.  UNLV was 2-5 at home but no loss was by more than 8 points.  Conversely, they were 0-6 on the road with losses by 23, 27, 25, 11, 22, and 38.  While Minnesota is no juggernaut, the 10 returning offensive starters should be able to put up points on the Rebels and cover this spread.

Tulsa @ Bowling Green
  Tulsa +4 (0.5 units)
  over 48.5 (0.5 units)
Tulsa returns its starting qb, rb, and 3 wr's.  They should continue to put up big numbers each game.  While Bowling Green does have a talented defense the Golden Hurricane should be able to do enough against to cover the little number and in my opinion win this game straight up.

Southern Cal @ Hawaii
  USC -21.5 -- (0.5 units)
  over 53.5 -- (0.5 units)
  1H over 28 -- (0.5 units)
Thought:  Its been several years since the Trojans were really good, not just really overrated.  But this year, despite the Lane Kiffin effect, USC has more depth and more experience that should greatly help them begin to right the ship.  As long as whichever qb USC goes with can put the ball in the air to Marqise Lee, USC should cover these numbers easily.  I feel that Hawaii is going to have a tough time blocking USC's experience front seven, making it a long night for the Warrior offense.

I probably have too many plays for the opening night, but I was just too darn excited for the season to get underway.  I have a few things that I'm looking at on Friday and a lot I am looking at for Saturday.  I'll be back with those plays once some of these results come in.

Let's enjoy this college football game and make so money while we're at it.  Whatever you play, best of luck! 

STM

like your picks

I'm liking the USC pick.  I think I might end up betting it tomorrow.

Solid picks, best of luck to you.

Hard to not pick UMinn as UNLV is terrible on the road.  I'm leaning towards the over.  QB Sherry had an OK frosh year  for UNLV and O-line better this year.

Kettosan   Thanks and best of luck to you.

BigRome   (Love the old school Kings logo by the way)

MrRedemption    Appreciate it.  Really liked your write-ups from your tread.  A lot of good stuff in there.

PittsburghJim   I personally think this one will get to that over pretty early in the second half.

GL

Thanks Train.   Best of luck to you this season.  Have enjoyed your threads over the years.

Good luck Slick.

Good Luck

Thanks Bonfire. 

Good luck to you AAY. 


AND WE ARE OFF!!!!!! 

Well the season got off to a bang (literally in the case of the UNC/USC game) and in some cases a bust.  Personally I saw some things I liked in my picks, but missed on a few things that I didn't expect. To recap:
 
Akron @ Central Florida  Score: UCF 38 - Akron 7
  UCF -21.5 (0.75 units)    
  over 55 (0.5 unit)          
  (1H) over 28 (0.5 units) 
Final thoughts:  Bortles and the Knights were what I had expected. I thought they would hit the mid-40's in this one, but 38 was close.  I needed Akron to show up and do a little to help cover the totals and they were simply M.I.A. all game long.

UNLV @ Minnesota  Score: Minn 51 - UNLV 23
  Minn -14 (0.5 units)  
  over 51.5 (0.5 units) 
Final thoughts: Special teams play pulled this one out.  The kickoff return to start the 2nd half followed by the blocked punt for a touchdown broke the back of UNLV, who up to that point had played pretty darn well.  Toss in the Minnesota pick 6 and its tough to lose.

Tulsa @ Bowling Green  Score: BG 34 - Tulsa 7
  Tulsa +4 (0.5 units)   
  over 48.5 (0.5 units)  
Final thoughts: Tulsa did nothing to help themselves early in the game with 2 missed fg's and a fumble going into the endzone.  That was an easy 13 points, which would have helped greatly on the total.  Bowling Green did a GREAT job of ball control with almost a 2:1 time of possession.  Tulsa better get that running game going or its going to be a long season.

Southern Cal @ Hawaii
  USC -21.5 -- (0.5 units)  
  over 53.5 -- (0.5 units)   
  1H over 28 -- (0.5 units) 
Final thoughts: I was wrong. USC can't overcome the Kiffin effect, at least not last night.  The qb's looked atrocious in last nights game.  I watched the majority of the first half before going to bed in disgust and I'm not sure I saw Kessler throw a pass past the line of scrimage. Now in his defense the Hawaii defense was lights out early. They spent as much time in the backfield as Kessler did. Conversely, USC's defense was great. They held Hawaii in check all night long.....up until the last 30 seconds when they gave up the 60 yard td reception for the backdoor cover killer.  That being said, as inept as the USC offense was, I didn't deserve that win. (but would have liked it - haha)

Totals for the night:  3-7  (30%) for  (-2.1 units)

Totals for the season:  3-7  (30%) for  (-2.1 units)

Oh well, its a long season so on to tonight's games.

STM