CFB Week 5

YTD: 15-13 ATS


Washington +7

I've seen Stanford play this year and I just don't think they are that good. Yeah they've got a nice defense and a good but not great run game but their new QB is not ready and stinks from what I've seen. They are also taking some green starters on the o-line and a QB making his first road start into what is going to be a very loud stadium. Stanford should have lost to SJSU and the Duke score was very misleading, they scored 2 special teams/defensive scores and Duke coughed the ball up 4 times to make the score look way more impressive than the game was. The USC game was a good game. Type of scenario where you've got the spotlight to yourself and can rise up at home and beat an overrated team. Whoa......wait a second that kind of sounds familiar doesn't it? The USC win looks much less impressive than it would have at the start of the year. The Trojans haven't played a wow game yet.

Stanford's vaunted run game came up with 3.5 and 3.8 YPC against the likes of Duke and SJSU. Take out one 59 yard breakaway run against USC and they were under 4.0 YPC again. Luck is not there and there is a lot less running room. Teams are going to stuff the box until Nunes proves he can do anything. Washington's defense is still weak but much better than last year and they will get a big lift from the crowd + green players playing their first road game on the Stanford offense. Stanford won their showcase game of the year and I think Washington does the same.


South Florida +17

FSU is still a poorly coached, dumb team that takes lesser opponents lightly under proven otherwise IMO. This team has a losing spread record already and consider this: They just played their biggest game of the year and gave everything they had and they STILL never covered! What does that say about the market read on this team? Can you say overvalued? So what are they going to do this week in a game they won't be half as amped up to play especially considering their opponent was beaten up by Rutgers and just lost to Ball State?!?! South Florida is a team with a very similar makeup to FSU just with less talent obvious but the same intangibles (or lack thereof). They screw around as favorites making dumbass mistakes and always seem to lose focus and overthink the game. Well here they won't have those concerns because they are a significant dog. Here they can just go out, let loose, and play. There will be no overthinking, no taking their opponent lightly, and no fucking around. FSU can do all those things. Wouldn't be shocked in the least if FSU gave this game away.


Virginia +3

La Tech got their big time statement win last week. Much different scenario this week traveling on the road again against a lesser name program. Tough for them to be nearly as ready to prove themselves. Big game for Virginia here. La Tech's big win last week will have caught their attention and the fact they have been just awful the last two weeks likely means they will show up strong. Good spot for a win.


California pk

Look at the breaks ASU has got this year: Against Illinois they got to play a team without it's QB. Against Mizzou they got to play a team without it's QB. And again against Utah they got to play a QB that had ben working with the 1st team offense for about 10 days, and not to mention was in a bad letdown spot last week. No one really knows how good ASU is based on the fact everyone they've played has been handicapped. Maynard may also be a turd but at least he's got starting experience in that offense. Huge game for Cal here, if they lose this one their season may already be over. It will be very tough for them to get into a bowl if they lose this game. Give me the desperate home team against the team that has had a very fortunate ride.


I'll be on a few more later. GL this week fellas.

andarmac99, are you aware that Wash is very banged up on O-Line starting 4 underclassmen?  this is the only thing holding me back.

Yes, I actually forgot to address that in the writeup. I think this is one of those situations where the injuries are being blown out of proportion. When it comes to injuries I like to think I have an edge when under the radar players are banged up or a team has injuries that are being overlooked. When the #1 story heading into a game is how banged up Washington is I just don't think there is any value left fading something like that. And what a great spot for the new kids to come in and play well and make a statement for more playing time in a national TV game against a Top 10 team. Isn't this what every kid who played college ball ever wanted, a chance to step in a make a big impact? Stanford does have a good front and the o-line could melt down but I just think it's being blown of proportion at this point.

GL abizzo

I totally disagree about FSU being poorly coached.  I think this team has turned the corner...they could shit the bed and prove me wrong but I just dont see it. I think FSU is going undefeated and playing in the NC now.

Cal is my biggest play of the week

Best of Luck 

4 losers, but good luck...

I don't disagree with your thoughts on ASU.......but the Mizzou backup is widely regarded in these parts as being superior to James Franklin. Either way, I don't think ASU really played a "lesser" Missouri team whoever was the QB.

looks like he is 1-0 so far

Got sum Wash myself nice start to the weekend

Nice start to the week. Add:

Washington State +31.5

31.5 with a freshman QB in his first road game? Come on. These are some of the best spots to fade the Ducks especially off a 49-0 beating against a ranked team. Just selling high here really. I mean this team has covered 4 times in 12 games under Chip Kelly as a 30+ point fav. Not to mention on the road/neutral field during that span they have won 2 games in 21 tries by 30 or more points and one of those was last year against a Colorado team that had half it's players either suspended or injured. State off perhaps the worst loss of the year by anyone will play hard this week.


Kent State +3 (-120)

Ball State just battled their asses off for 3 straight weeks against BCS schools and actually win the last two games in what were big wins for the program. How do they have anything left for a substantially lesser opponent in a noon kick? I really don't know. Kinda helps Kent State may have the best defense in the MAC to boot. What about the fact Ball State has a huge game at home with Northern Illy next week? Yeah this is not a good spot whatsoever.


Kentucky +21 (-115)

I bet this team last week thinking Maxwell Smith was going to play but unfortunately he took the warmups but couldn't go. Instead they threw in the worst FBS QB I have ever seen and that was all she wrote. This week Smith has practiced all week and is going to play for sure. Two nice situations lining up here. #1. Kentucky is bad but they aren't as big of a travesty as everyone thinks as long is Smith is the QB. #2. SoCar is off 3 laughable home blowouts including a pasting in their SEC home opener, now looking at the schedule they play Georgia in probably their biggest game of the year next week and LSU after that. Is anyone really thinking that they are going to take the laughing stock of the conference seriously? I don't, and Kentucky isn't THAT bad IMO anyway which makes this bet twice as sweet.


Liked a couple more but just can't get the lines I want. GL fellas.

gl mac

Boom - We'll see on FSU. This is a spot they traditionally shit all over themselves. If they really have turned the corner they will win big here. If not then they will make some dumb mistakes. Lets get Cal.

Mac - You could be right but it was still a freshman QB playing in his first game. GL this week buddy.

surprised to not see you on zona...looks like a nice buy-low opportunity

like it!

South Carolina is notorious for getting stuck in 2nd gear and winning games like this 19-10 or something simple like that. Kentucky is a hard team to bet on, but tonite is a good opportunity catching 3 TDs with SC potentially in sleepwalk mode.