Posted:
#1
YTD: 15-13 ATS
Washington +7
I've seen Stanford play this year and I just don't think they are that good. Yeah they've got a nice defense and a good but not great run game but their new QB is not ready and stinks from what I've seen. They are also taking some green starters on the o-line and a QB making his first road start into what is going to be a very loud stadium. Stanford should have lost to SJSU and the Duke score was very misleading, they scored 2 special teams/defensive scores and Duke coughed the ball up 4 times to make the score look way more impressive than the game was. The USC game was a good game. Type of scenario where you've got the spotlight to yourself and can rise up at home and beat an overrated team. Whoa......wait a second that kind of sounds familiar doesn't it? The USC win looks much less impressive than it would have at the start of the year. The Trojans haven't played a wow game yet.
Stanford's vaunted run game came up with 3.5 and 3.8 YPC against the likes of Duke and SJSU. Take out one 59 yard breakaway run against USC and they were under 4.0 YPC again. Luck is not there and there is a lot less running room. Teams are going to stuff the box until Nunes proves he can do anything. Washington's defense is still weak but much better than last year and they will get a big lift from the crowd + green players playing their first road game on the Stanford offense. Stanford won their showcase game of the year and I think Washington does the same.
South Florida +17
FSU is still a poorly coached, dumb team that takes lesser opponents lightly under proven otherwise IMO. This team has a losing spread record already and consider this: They just played their biggest game of the year and gave everything they had and they STILL never covered! What does that say about the market read on this team? Can you say overvalued? So what are they going to do this week in a game they won't be half as amped up to play especially considering their opponent was beaten up by Rutgers and just lost to Ball State?!?! South Florida is a team with a very similar makeup to FSU just with less talent obvious but the same intangibles (or lack thereof). They screw around as favorites making dumbass mistakes and always seem to lose focus and overthink the game. Well here they won't have those concerns because they are a significant dog. Here they can just go out, let loose, and play. There will be no overthinking, no taking their opponent lightly, and no fucking around. FSU can do all those things. Wouldn't be shocked in the least if FSU gave this game away.
Virginia +3
La Tech got their big time statement win last week. Much different scenario this week traveling on the road again against a lesser name program. Tough for them to be nearly as ready to prove themselves. Big game for Virginia here. La Tech's big win last week will have caught their attention and the fact they have been just awful the last two weeks likely means they will show up strong. Good spot for a win.
California pk
Look at the breaks ASU has got this year: Against Illinois they got to play a team without it's QB. Against Mizzou they got to play a team without it's QB. And again against Utah they got to play a QB that had ben working with the 1st team offense for about 10 days, and not to mention was in a bad letdown spot last week. No one really knows how good ASU is based on the fact everyone they've played has been handicapped. Maynard may also be a turd but at least he's got starting experience in that offense. Huge game for Cal here, if they lose this one their season may already be over. It will be very tough for them to get into a bowl if they lose this game. Give me the desperate home team against the team that has had a very fortunate ride.
I'll be on a few more later. GL this week fellas.
Washington +7
I've seen Stanford play this year and I just don't think they are that good. Yeah they've got a nice defense and a good but not great run game but their new QB is not ready and stinks from what I've seen. They are also taking some green starters on the o-line and a QB making his first road start into what is going to be a very loud stadium. Stanford should have lost to SJSU and the Duke score was very misleading, they scored 2 special teams/defensive scores and Duke coughed the ball up 4 times to make the score look way more impressive than the game was. The USC game was a good game. Type of scenario where you've got the spotlight to yourself and can rise up at home and beat an overrated team. Whoa......wait a second that kind of sounds familiar doesn't it? The USC win looks much less impressive than it would have at the start of the year. The Trojans haven't played a wow game yet.
Stanford's vaunted run game came up with 3.5 and 3.8 YPC against the likes of Duke and SJSU. Take out one 59 yard breakaway run against USC and they were under 4.0 YPC again. Luck is not there and there is a lot less running room. Teams are going to stuff the box until Nunes proves he can do anything. Washington's defense is still weak but much better than last year and they will get a big lift from the crowd + green players playing their first road game on the Stanford offense. Stanford won their showcase game of the year and I think Washington does the same.
South Florida +17
FSU is still a poorly coached, dumb team that takes lesser opponents lightly under proven otherwise IMO. This team has a losing spread record already and consider this: They just played their biggest game of the year and gave everything they had and they STILL never covered! What does that say about the market read on this team? Can you say overvalued? So what are they going to do this week in a game they won't be half as amped up to play especially considering their opponent was beaten up by Rutgers and just lost to Ball State?!?! South Florida is a team with a very similar makeup to FSU just with less talent obvious but the same intangibles (or lack thereof). They screw around as favorites making dumbass mistakes and always seem to lose focus and overthink the game. Well here they won't have those concerns because they are a significant dog. Here they can just go out, let loose, and play. There will be no overthinking, no taking their opponent lightly, and no fucking around. FSU can do all those things. Wouldn't be shocked in the least if FSU gave this game away.
Virginia +3
La Tech got their big time statement win last week. Much different scenario this week traveling on the road again against a lesser name program. Tough for them to be nearly as ready to prove themselves. Big game for Virginia here. La Tech's big win last week will have caught their attention and the fact they have been just awful the last two weeks likely means they will show up strong. Good spot for a win.
California pk
Look at the breaks ASU has got this year: Against Illinois they got to play a team without it's QB. Against Mizzou they got to play a team without it's QB. And again against Utah they got to play a QB that had ben working with the 1st team offense for about 10 days, and not to mention was in a bad letdown spot last week. No one really knows how good ASU is based on the fact everyone they've played has been handicapped. Maynard may also be a turd but at least he's got starting experience in that offense. Huge game for Cal here, if they lose this one their season may already be over. It will be very tough for them to get into a bowl if they lose this game. Give me the desperate home team against the team that has had a very fortunate ride.
I'll be on a few more later. GL this week fellas.
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