Full disclosure: I am a Clemson fan (homer alert) and I also ripped most of this info from a Clemson insider blog...but I think it's very good info. Also, I got 38.5 but at much higher juice, but decided to pay the premium to get a lower than the 40.5 I was seeing elsewhere.
I like Clemson TT over here because NC State’s D has been incredibly prone to giving up big plays of 20+ yards or more. They were dead last in the ACC last year, giving up 38. Also, against Clemson the past two seasons…not pretty:
2014 (7 plays, 41 points allowed) – 21, 24, 24, 28, 31, 34, 56
2015 (9 plays, 56 points allowed) – 21, 24, 25, 31, 35, 36, 40, 42, 57
Although NC State has vastly improved this season only allowing 8…their competition: William & Mary, Old Dominion, Wake Forest, East Carolina and Notre Dame in an absolute monsoon. East Carolina is the only decent offense on this list (ND is good, but the weather…) and ECU got 5 big plays on them and scored 33 points.
38.5 is a big number, but I think Clemson is going to absolutely gash this defense again. After a slow start the first 4 games, Clemson has averaged 6.5 and 6.6 YPA on the ground against Louisville and BC and I think their offense is finally clicking. They also appear to be getting back starting WR Hunter Renfrow who has been out the past month, which adds another weapon to Deshaun's arsenal.
I also think TT over is a better play than laying the 18 because NC State will probably get a few TDs as Finley has looked sharp and Samuels has looked very dangerous, taking the TT here seems like the better option so you don't have to worry about the backdoor cover biting you in the butt.
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