Colorado vs Colorado State (in Denver)

Colorado vs. Colorado State is always my “Game of the Year” due to the fact that I am able to see both of these teams in person prior to kickoff. Earlier this Spring, I attended CU’s Spring Game, and so far over the last couple of weeks, I have been able to attend an open practice for each squad. After the CU Spring game I had it in my mind that CU would handle CSU by 21-28+. After seeing CSU practice a couple of weekends ago I felt comfortable with that prediction. It is clear to me that there is going to be a huge speed discrepancy between these two teams, as there usually is. But the gap in my opinion has grown substantially. I see CU’s passing attack being somewhat unstoppable with the sheer speed they have on the outsides, and CSU’s usual inability to cover consistently. CSU just isn’t getting the athletes on defense that they once did, and this game will be much like last year, where the much speedier and talented offense rules the game. It also appears that the TE may play a bigger role in CU’s game plan, and shaky LB play for CSU could result in some big plays for the Buffs.

Every year without fail, CSU blows a defensive assignment early in the game and allows the Paul Richardsons and Shea Fields of the world to break wide open. This year, CSU will have two weapons to cover in KD Nixon and Liviska Shenault. If this year is anything like last year, we can expect another 17 receptions for 323 yards and 2 TDs out of Nixon and Shenault, with one huge chunk play, like Shenaults 89 yarder last season. CSU’s defense does look like it is tackling better, but there were plenty of plays at their practice where guys were out of position. Being out of position consistently against NFL caliber QBs and WRs will again get us a result much like last year when CU won 45-13. That game was never in doubt, and if CU had wanted to score 70, they easily could have. The dogs were called off at halftime.

This year, Mel Tucker will want to put his stamp on this team from the get go, and I like how much energy he brings to a practice. There is a noticeable energy difference in the practices between Mel Tucker and Mike Bobo. Tucker’s practices seem to have a bit more physicality and much better tempo to them, whereas CSU almost seems like they are going through the motions.

 

 

Anybody that does their homework on this game will undoubtedly come across the large amounts of praise for CSU QB Colin Hill, and his improvement. This is true, but there is a catch. The large majority of his work is still against no pass rush. The guy has suffered two torn ACLs, and it is clear that he is rattled when the pocket breaks down. If for some reason CU cannot get a pass rush going, Hill will be able to put up yards. But put a pass rush on that guy, and chances are the sacks and interceptions will not be far behind.

VARIABLES: With Nebraska on deck, I am assuming that CU is going to have a fairly vanilla game plan. I think they come out with an up-tempo assault, and then take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. There doesn’t seem to be any reason that this game does not take on the same shape as the 2018 affair, and I see CU running the ball the whole 2nd half to see what they’ve got at Running Back. The more CSU runs uptempo, the longer I think they stay in the game, but from what I saw at practice for the Rams, they appear to be content with moving at a comfortable pace, not uptempo, where they tend to click. I’m assuming that since the practice was open, they were not running the full game plan for the CU game, but they seemed lethargic to put it nicely.

Prediction: Colorado 44-21, with the large majority of scoring being done in the 1st half. It’ll be clear at the end of this game that CU got the more talented Georgia Coordinator.

CU -12.5 with a much larger wager on the over 58.5 (-105), over 59 (+100), over 59.5 (+107).

Once the first half spread and total comes in, I will be on CU 1st half, and over.

 

I do not think for a minute CU will have a vanilla game plan, as this is a big rivalry for bragging rights. Much appreciated your assessment, and I do believe CU will cover, but the games between these two are generally close. 

Thanks for the intel GB...my daughter is a senior at CU-Boulder this fall. She's a big Buffs fan, but your intel is WAY better than hers.

Cheers  

Good info here! Thanks! Ive been looking at Georgia West too! Solid players on both sides. CSU lost Preston. Tearing up NFL now. Lean Colo!!!

Might want to factor in CU's 4 star running back, Jaren Mangham, out of Detroit.  He is 6' 2", 215 lbs, and ran for 149 yards on 12 carries in the spring game.  He had touchdown runs of 65, 35 and 22 yards.  He could be a real diamond for the buffs.

Inter-State rivalry with a spread 10-17 points. CSU is my play here. 

Yea, like the double digit spreads C.U. has covered in the last 3 years.

My numbers love the OVER ....

Appreciate the inside info and write-up!  

Used to attend this game every year before I got sent out east. CU needs this game, new coaching staff, set a tone, and are in need of every W to get back into bowls. CSU looks to be already prepping for a lost season.

 

I usually dont like big spreads on rivalry games, and having it open the season has its pros and cons.  You gave us some great info and I am sure Ibwill be betting on Buffs to cover, but really looking for the 1st half. I figure, like you, a quick,start and then go into conservative mode. I fear the backdoor cover (it is a rivalry game for CSU and the Buffs have the hated Huskers on deck). 1st half big, full game perhaps a 2 unit bet. Hope my homerism doesnt bite me in the ass :)

Hail,

Manowarfan1

Great write up!

CSU needs someone with the fire of BVP !!!

WELL done my friend.  My MW guys say CSU is simply awful and your excellent,  on the ground write up confirms that intel.

This line looks off for sure.

SMU +120 - Arkansas State's coach has been dealing with a terminally ill wife, who recently passed away. Game planning for SMU was most likely not a high priority on his list of things to do these last couple of weeks. There is always a strong possibility that ASU plays above their talent level in tribute, but the weapons that are transferring in to SMU should help coach Dykes immensely.

Oregon +140

BC +150

Toledo +12 and Moneyline +361 - Wildcats are primed for a regression, and return only 10 starters.

UCLA/Cincy over 59

Most likely will add the Nebraska 1st half over once I see the number. Like Colorado, I see the Huskers dominating the 1st half, and letting off of the gas in the 2nd. CU and Nebraska are focused on each other, not their week 1 opponents.

 

Not a great sign for us Greedy.......the Colorado number is now 56.5.

To me this has the appearance of a trap game starting right off in week 1. CSU is 0-3 vs the Buffs in their last 3 meetings. Looking ahead towards the Husker game??? Maybe. I just have a gut feeling the Rams show up for this one after that disappointing 5 game losing streak to end the 2018 season.

Score prediction -

Colorado - 31 

Colorado St - 24

Taking the Rams +13

Under 57

Great post and insight on this game...I’ll be on CO to runaway with this game...hopefully!

I don’t mind being on the other side of the public in week 1, but I’ll be the first to admit I bought a bad number. Down to 55.5 now. I have it capped in the 60s, so I’ve made my bed. 

CUs motto for the game is “Relentless.” With that being said, Colorado -20.5 at +207 added.

Fence, you have to have some pull at CSU if you were at the Spring game, it was closed to the public.

Huge win to start off the season. 

Bama -20.5 First half

Nebraska over 36 1st half

James Madison +7.5

Hey Greedy,  didn't you once have a pic of a guy who looked like Richard Simmons jogging? Good to see you again