Conference Title Scenarios

SEC is set with Georgia -4 over Alabama.

Conf USA is set with Liberty -13 over NMSU.

ACC has Florida State vs Louisville/UNC most likely.

Big 10 is the Game winner v Iowa most likely. 

Big 12 is chaos BUT Texas controls their own destiny as does Oklahoma State. That’s the most simple way to put it. If one of them loses, they can still get in but then mass confusion occurs.

Pac 12 most likely Oregon v Washington. If Oregon State sweeps the next two weeks, and Washington goes 1-1, it’s Beavers v Huskies re match. Arizona needs a lot of help and has to win out.

SUN BELT Troy has clinched a home game. James Madison will not get in due to NCAA Rule. Coastal, Georgia Southern, App State play Troy. 

MWC is hell since Air Force has lost a few. Air Force probably gets Boise in a rematch of the last week of the season. 

AAC comes down to Tulane v UTSA winner getting a bid VS SMU Memphis winner. Memphis will win this week in an upset and will get Tulane. Tulane gets the home game. Home field advantage Vs UTSA plays big for them. 

MAC Toledo wasn’t interested last night and will kill whoever they play.

Covers Brothers, start talking Conference Title Games baby! There are some good heads in here. 

Michigan, Tulane, Washington, Florida State, Georgia, Troy and Texas emerge victorious.

Toledo, Air Force, Liberty as well. Thoughts?

Mountain West is very interesting. I listed to Mountain West podcast last night and they reported the follwoing: 

The winner of Airforce vs UNLV this week gets in. 

If Fresno wins their last two games (San Diego St and New Mexico) they get in. 

The only given I see is that Fresno will be in as they will not lose one of those games. 

So it looks like we we have Airforce UNLV winner vs Fresno. 

If Airforce's QB is healthy I think they can beat UNLV. If he is not, UNLV wins with game. 

AAC -  I like SMU to beat Tulane in AAC finals. 

ACC - FSU over Louisville. 

SEC - Georgia over Bama. 

BIG 10 - OSU upsets Michigan and beats Iowa in the finals. 

MWC - Fresno over Airforce 

Big 12 - Texas over OSU 

Pac 12 - Oregon over WU 

Funbelt - Troy over Coastal 

If both Oregon state and Arizona win out it's Arizona going to big game... Assumes UW beats WSU

3 of 4 likeliest scenarios  = UO vs. UW

Oregon State needs 4 way tie

I calculate 2% chance of 4 way tie (only way US misses

@Aldan52

 Aldan, 

You have some guts brother. I like it but I don’t agree…

Michigan and Tulane to me getting that home field advantage will play massive for them. Michigan is on a mission this season AND Tulane’s national ranking will propel them in tiebreakers. Good debate and thoughts brother. Keep it coming!

FRESNO +450 TO WIN CHAMP looks tasty!

Ohio st +170 also looks good. Whoever thinks OSU is going to beat MICH, then this is a good value pick.

I like BAMA over GEO

MWC tiebreaker may be composite ratings...

5-5 teams surprisingly.score pretty well (even better) vs 8-2 teams

Someone has suggested.that AF-UNLV winner is in.game... I,don't think that's mathematically correct...

If.you.are.bullish on UNLV, it is great.bet... They do play SJSU who is also really red-hot

Well, lets look at some updates after week 12: 

Mountain West: 

Airforce is all but eliminated after an amazing effort against UNLV. I do not see them beating Bosie without their starting QB or FB.

If Bosie wins and UNLV wins we get UNLV hosting Bosie. This is not a given as San Jose State is playing their best football. 

I still think UNLV pulls it out though in a tough game. 

I like UNLV over Bosie in the finals. 

American 

Three team race as well. 

SMU is virtually in as they will not lose to Navy. 

Tulane vs UTSA will be a great game. I can see either team winning.

Either way, I still like SMU to win it. 

PAC12

Oregon vs Washington rematch. 

Oregon wins. 

Big 10

OSU over Iowa 

BIG 12

Texas wins another way to close game vs Tech. 

OSU beats BYU at home. 

Texas should beat up on OSU in the championship. 

Looking forward too it!!! Especially that pac12 dismantle matchup!!!

I'm going to p12 game in vegas... So curious if mwc game will be in Vegas too

I have the 3 scenarios as this (I make a big assumption that I don't know is correct)

Boise/af winner at UNLV

Sjsu @ boise

UNLV @ sjsu

If it goes to ratings, those love boise

My assumption was wrong.. I thought A beat B who beat C was enough head-to-head. But A and C had to play each other which they didn't....

So it's AF/Boise winner at UNLV

Or,

SJSU wins = 3-way tie ----> ratings decide... Prob sjsu at boise... Or air force at sjsu

So it looks like winner vs winner of these last 2 games.. This is based on a few ratings I saw..don't believe unlv has a for championship ratings team

My bad assumption on MWC is the basis for big 12 controversy..

Very high probability that oks, uo, and ksu end up tied... Oks beat the other 2 teams and head2head is 1st criteria... Big 12 saying cowboys win tiebreak but the way it WAS written was 3 teams would have to play each other and they didn't... That revised tiebreaker is the obvious best tiebreaker but they changed it late season

I guess you could say big 12 could put in both phantom results on hypothetical ksu-ou game and cowboys would still dominate

I explained big 12 tiebreaker WRONG at least when I explained it in theory

A beat B and C.. But the big 12 tiebreaker wording suggest A, B and C had to play each other even though B vs. C game result wouldn't matter. B and C didn't play each other

 Love to see the comments regarding Conference Title Games…

I have a Week 6 placed Parlay and Round Robin that pays out $27K if it goes 7 for 7.

Tulane, Florida State, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, Washington, Troy.

ACC is set Florida State -6.5 over Louisville.

AAC Tulane/UTSA winner vs SMU. Tulane wins as a 3 point favorite this week and HOSTS title game if they beat Beep Beep! SMU avoided Tulane and UTSA. Big offense but can be scored on. Defense wins the day and Tulane has the best one! 

BIG 10 Michigan -3.5 over Ohio State. Win and either team is favored by 20 over Iowa. EVERYONE on Covers I’ve seen likes Ohio State. Michigan has been vanilla on purpose the last two weeks. They win by a touchdown! 

BIG 12 Texas beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State beat BYU. Can’t get simpler than that.

SEC Georgia -4 over Alabama.

FUN BELT Troy is hosting the title game against Coastal or App State. I don’t like condoms but I do like The Trojans.

PAC 12 I just don’t get it. Washington is 11-0. Oregon is killing teams right now BUT their defense isn’t what people say it is. Washington is +7.5 in a Lookahead spot on a neutral field. Oregon State will give Oregon a physical game this week. If the score stays in the 20’s, Oregon State can win this one. Oregon hasn’t been tested this year except for My Huskies. 

I don’t care about the other 3 Conferences BUT the Mountain West is bonkers! The MAC is set and C USA is Liberty HUGE!

 Oregon still has to beat the Beavs to get in.......