Does Army have a prayer in hell of winning this game?

according to Las vegas, almost a 30% chance

For what it's worth, here are a few stats in favor of Army winning SU.  Admittely, some of these numbers are bit of a stretch or just sound like convenient data mining -  and I can find far more stats in favor of Navy winning straight up - but I thought sharing this data might help to elevate this thread to a more substantive disussion.  Feel free to weigh in - for or against.

Play On - Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (ARMY) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.  (33-26 since 1992.) (55.9%, +42.8 units.)

ARMY is 21-14 against the money line (+21.8 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards since 1992.  The average score was ARMY 32.5, OPPONENT 22.6

ARMY is 19-13 against the money line (+30.9 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt since 1992.  The average score was ARMY 33.8, OPPONENT 24.7

ARMY is 26-18 against the money line (+44.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.  The average score was ARMY 37.4, OPPONEN 26.1

NAVY is 2-5 against the money line (-12.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.  The average score was NAVY 34.6, OPPONENT 41.6

NAVY is 5-14 against the money line (-18.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 28.5, OPPONENT 32.8

NAVY is 2-7 against the money line (-15.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 31.5, OPPONENT 30.9

NAVY is 2-6 against the money line (-9.2 Units) after playing a non-conference game this season.  The average score was NAVY 27.4, OPPONENT 32.8

NAVY is 8-21 against the money line (-14.8 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 25.5, OPPONENT 36.0

NAVY is 1-4 against the money line (-9.8 Units) after playing their last game on the road this season.  The average score was NAVY 31.2, OPPONENT 27.6

NAVY is 1-4 against the money line (-9.8 Units) when they commit 1 turnover this season.  The average score was NAVY 28.0, OPPONENT 32.8

NAVY is 12-19 against the money line (-16.9 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 24.3, OPPONENT 30.9

NAVY is 14-23 against the money line (-21.5 Units) after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 24.8, OPPONENT 28.6

NAVY is 2-6 against the money line (-9.2 Units) after playing a non-conference game this season.  The average score was NAVY 27.4, OPPONENT 32.8

NAVY is 1-4 against the money line (-9.8 Units) after playing their last game on the road this season.  The average score was NAVY 31.2, OPPONENT 27.6

NAVY is 1-4 against the money line (-8.2 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses this season.  The average score was NAVY 30.0, OPPONENT 37.8

NAVY is 14-23 against the money line (-21.5 Units) after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 24.8, OPPONENT 28.6

Niumatalolo is 3-7 against the money line (-10.5 Units) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games as the coach of NAVY.  The average score was NAVY 27.2, OPPONENT 27.1

That said, I am considering taking Army +7 or under 56 (game) or under 28.5 (half) - but I haven't pulled the trigger yet.