I think the buzz about ECU is the new coaching staff. Heard it on several podcasts already.
What we have is a large percentage of bets on ECU ( 74%) which is very atypical for a double digit dog at this point in the year. Normally, one would see bettors pounding the favorite in this spot. But we have just the opposite. Why?
The key for me is the parlay betting pct which one can find at Sports Insights. The parlay betting pct on ECU is only 6%. Yes. Only 6%. Sharps don't bet parlays and this a great indicator for square money.
Summary: There is a lot of money on the pointspread for ECU (74%) and a low parlay pct on ECU (6%). And the line has moved over 2 points toward ECU from -20 to -17.5. Looks like a potential play on ECU but it needs a deeper look. Reading the market is only the first step.
Also, it is seldom a good idea to take the worst of 2.5 point line move. Esp if it crosses the key number of -17 on the way down. Keep that in mind. Post here what you decide to do. Will check later.
You are in a tough spot with an early ticket on NC State. You can't hedge out because you could end up with an "Aggie Middle" where you lose both bets if it falls on the wrong number. Normally, betting favs early is a good idea because money comes in on the favorite early ( but not always, as in this case). I am surprised at the degree of love for ECU.
Example of getting the worst of a move:
NC State opens at -17. You like the price, you bet the game at -17.
3 days later, a bunch of ECU money comes an bets the game down to -16
You now have the worst of it. You are laying more money than if you had waited.
Like buying a car at the sticker price and then finding out sharp car buyers are getting 2000 less than you paid.
That is getting the worst of it. Getting the best of it is the opposite and is called getting positive closing line value. Your original bet is now worth more value and it has a better chance of covering now than it would have at the opening price.
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