Either Dog Tonight

Two undefeated teams on the road with reverse line movement.  Will likely martingale, i.e., if Louisville does not cover, double down on Illinois.

Vegas is not losing both games tonight. 

pretty sharp

Not a bad strategy. One of those nights where it is easy to split.

Vegas doesn't 'lose' any night, the outcomes of the games only matter to us - the idea that 'Vegas' needs X or Y to cover on any given night is a myth that book promoters and touts are happy to feed because it drums up more business from non-professionals.

Rant aside (lol) good luck on the games tonight 

Maryland is going to destroy Illinois...and cover...

@No_Gifts

 There is no correlation of bets by Vegas in this scenario...Both faves could cover or none or one...Your perspective is illogical...

Beating the spread is often anti-logical.  These are only two football games on tonight.  If 65% of the public are on a side for both games, "Vegas" has a vested interest in at least splitting the games.  While one day may not matter much, over time these games would be at least split.

@No_Gifts

 Vegas does not care who wins the game or covers, or even if they make a profit on any given night...They set the lines based on perceived relative power ratings, and then adjust on relative betting support to get as close to a balanced as possible...they offer games 365 days a year, and their primary focus is volume...thus, they offer acton on both sides of both NCAAF games tonight...there is no correlation with outcomes of these two games tonight...thus, again, your  logic is flawed...You are touting a more sophisticated version of a fix, and there is no such thing... Vegas only vested interest is that there are millions of folks like you, who will gamble their money away...There is no need for Vegas to impact the outcome of any game...They are going make money either way...If you are referring to pure probability, of a 50 50 outcome, in essence a coin flip, then perhaps heads in one game, and result in tails in the next, since there is a chance it could be tails.  But, with random probability, even if the first toss is heads, there is a 50 50 probability that the 2nd toss will also be heads.   This applies to spread games, or 50 50 odds, for any given game...Thus, your guidance of a double down quasi lock on Illinois if the first fave covers is tragically flawed...and bad advice...

@LonghornHoosier

 And the bookmakers would have to know which one of the favorites tonight don’t cover in advance. If the fav of the first game covers, they would have to know that in advance and then set a purposely bad line in the second game to increase the chance of the dog covering. Which would then expose them to sharps hammering the bad line. As Hoosier said, they want even action on both side in both games and let the chips fall.

Projecting well so far. 

love the theory. pick two dogs in +100 / +200 <1 score>range and if first loses double second. genius.