Posted:
#1
It has been an exciting run to the playoffs, with several surprises along the way. Tonight's card has the potential to deliver more.
A few thoughts:
1) Northern Iowa @ James Madison (-21)
James Madison has been the #2 squad all year long. They fell behind early last week to a decent Monmouth squad and hung 66 when they woke up. But, the strength of schedule for JMU has been brutal. Aside from West Virginia and Monmouth, the level of competition has been weak all year long.
UNI comes in off an upset win @ South Dakota. Point totals have been low over the past several games, looks like their #7 ranked D is playing well. Not sure they can score enough to win, but they are catching a boatload of points.
UNI +21
2)Austin Peay @ Montana State (-7)
AP has come out of nowhere and gone on one heck of a playoff run. Last week's smoke job of Sacramento State was extra-impressive. Sac St. won the Big Sky and looked good doing it; to see them blown out 42-28 at home was an eyebrow raiser. AP is the hottest team in the tourney, coming off of 2 blowout wins over Furman and one drubbing of Sac St. Also have the #7 rush D in the country.
MSU brings in the #8 run game nationally and are winners of 5 straight. The blowout of Montana was impressive, win over Albany last week was routine. This is a one-dimensional team; stop the run and you win. Period. Weather in Bozeman won't be cold, about 40 with no precip.
The sharp money has already come in on AP. I agree.
AP +7 and ML @ +210
3) Montana @ Weber State (+2.5)
No matter the league, it is tough to beat a team twice in one year. That is what UM will try to do tonight @ Weber. Also, this is the only home dog on the card, with the higher seed being the pup. Interesting...
For me, this is a tough game to handicap. I have watched UM in person all year long and am way too close to the program to make a decent wager. We know this: the crowd won't be a factor, freezing rain is expected, and Weber State perennially struggles in the playoffs. If WSU can't throw, they won't win.
I can see multiple outcomes in this one. Like most games, the team that plays cleanest is going to win. Too close to call for me. Best of luck, either side, Go Griz!
None of these are rent-check bets. But, if I was going to shoot the moon, it would be on Austin Peay at +210 ML. 
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
0
Hot Forum Topics
