FEARTHEWEB 10/17 bet. 3-0YTD

3-0 this season on write up bets 

TCu + 13 vs Texas, Texas AnM +6.5 last week. Iowa state tech U59.5 last week

Miss state +7 baby. Max bets 
Qb competition Time all week.
Kj Costello was pulled , Rodgers threw two picks in relief. Leach says making huge personal changes at WR and every player on the team after scoring 2 points .
KJ Costello , emotional player . Highs and lows for a gunslinger . Kentucky defense is quite good and they were in a must win last week. I think by scoring 2 points last week we are getting a angrier miss state team. If Leach keeps them together this week they can be a monster, also I can see the public discounting their LSU win now. So why the need to open this number so sharp at +6.5??..  
it won’t be hard to get organized with a top 10 Texas AnM coming to town. Let’s go starkVegas. I like this play as much as tcu . This is a fly to Vegas type play. Read below like your life depends on it . I have your attention from a 3-0 start to writeups. ?

Take a glance at the box score below . Kentucky had 173 total yards Of offense And won by 3 tds vs Miss state . Pretty wild. We can directly look in the mirror and say that the miss state turnovers impacted this game big time. Miss state defense might be steady.
- Kentucky rushes for 400 yards vs ole miss .
-Kentucky rushes for 145 yards vs Auburn .
-Kentucky rushes for 84 yards vs MISS STATE. On 32 carries . That’s 2.6 a carry
One would assume that’s miss state strength in D. Run defense... ** Great matchup vs AnM who HAS to establish the run first, that’s what was key for Mond vs Florida **. Mond isn’t a NFL passer, also Chapman ACL out for the year. so without the run game this week vs miss state , could be some serious regression concerns on the road and it’s worth noting that AnM hung 49 points last year on Miss state !!!!.. LFG! Do it for Dak. !

I expect the best from KJ Costello after being pulled last week. I love backing a angry and motivated Qb...... at home .... vs a crappy pass defense .... on the extreme extreme bounce back from throwing 4 bad picks..... vs a over confident Texas AnM team. And also it’s a great public fade obviously as well .

“Very winnable game” on paper for AnM, Yet the line says -6 . this number at -6 catches my eye. Oddsmakers buy miss state bounce back. Plain and simple . It’s a true bounce back . And it just happens to be a double bounce back haha. (2 games crappy games) . I doubted myself if Miss state would bounce back after really looking more into this.

That was a big big win for AnM, huge win. No way they get excited for 1-2 miss state and they should. This is SEC. mentally I’m not 100% sure Texas AnM is ready for this SEC full season. It’s a different animal than big 12 but that’s just my opinion .
This would be classic jimbo fisher let down spot and why he will never be top level talent. They have the talent , off the bus talent that I spoke of last week, but they aren’t polished (personal fouls, star DT hurt knee celebrating a sack) he’s fine though . No doubt Tex AnM played inspired football and their best game of the season last week, and that’s exactly what I think it will be , their best game of the season from QB Mond etc. it was so inspiring it’s in my mind, in everyone’s mind. So why the open at just -6.5 only !?

Sharp Sharp line , we have a opportunity to back not just a public fade at a very very sharp number (I think AnM would get bet at -10 here) dead serious about that.
We get a mike leach bounce back + very big let down spot. That’s a big bowl of soup mixed together . Don’t you think Miss state wants to rebound at home after losing to Arkansas at home ?? They win this game . Sit at 2-2 and everything fine in starkVegas .

the sharp number and public fade , can be backed , in fact double backed by letdown/bounce back . This just makes so much sense to me. Catch me in Vegas this week. Stark Vegas...

good luck on the bet 

Great write-up Stark. Love the angle. 

Good stuff brother. 

Any thoughts on the total (54ish)?

Nice write up fear

You earn your cover on this one with Mond now thinking he is NFL worthy. Remember what he was like in his first year? Run demolition machine when nothing was there....but the lack of run game means Leach plans for this? 

I like the angle with a pissed off and for my money...better QB who will want to trade TDs if he can and with their offense, I think they will.

You hooked me...nice writeup 

Good stuff! Thx

Nice work and write up Webb , I sent you a friend request . Bol

GL this week Feartheweb

Down to 4.5 

Get it brother 

I completely disagree on Miss St.   You are underestimating a 4 year starter in the 3rd year of a system versus an overrated Gr Transfer who could not be the starter at Stanford, who got acclaim for beating up a young LSU secondary in a new system.   With TAMU, there are no let down spots in the SEC West, considering the expectations at TAMU.  This is a business trip for TAMU. They will TCB and win by 10+.  

Should be good game. You could be right Longhorn. I don’t believe in Jimbo and this tex AM defense on the road 

 Don’t understand why line is down to 4 1/2 

 You were 3-0 until I follow!  Of course I missed those three winners 

Tough loss. 3-1 now. Woulda needed more than 1 thing to go Miss States way. Tex AnM did run the ball better than I thought. Happens, bigtime loser. On to next week!