Posted:
#1
FSU -20
After getting manhandled 52-7 by Louisville, things don't get much easier for BC having to travel down to FSU, who although they can't challenge for the ACC any more, they will still be motivated to play on Friday night, as they haven't had a Friday night game in many years and Dalvin Cook is chasing the FSU rush record.
BC has held Cook to less than 100 yards the last 2 times, but I'd be more inclined to think that he will fare better in this 3rd matchup rather than think BC will bottle him up again.
3 TDs is a lot to lay, but similar to the Ravens laying a lot last night in the NFL, it's not such a bad deal when the other team is really bad on any one side of the ball, and BC has a putrid offense, even though they upgraded their QB and got their top RB back this year.
FSU's defense isn't great but it won't have to be against this offense, and to their credit, last week when FSU came out understandably flat vs NC St after a devastating close loss to Clemson, they held the Wolfpack to only 7 points in the 2nd half and they scraped the W, and they've been pretty good in the 2nd half of games this year in general. Last year, they shut out BC 14-0, and even though the Eagles have upgraded at QB, so has FSU, and Francois is one of the best in YPA this year. If you key on Cook, he can hurt you. FSU is thin at safety but this isn't a vertical offense so again, the Eagles can't take advantage of that IMO.
FSU isn't as explosive as Louisville, and isn't as good on D, but they won't need to put up 52 to cover, I'd say they could easily score in the high 30s low 40s while BC will do well to get into double digits at all.
FSU is still a work in progress in some ways but has a star RB and a potent passing attack and has shown that they can hang with a good team like Clemson while generally handling the lesser ACC teams with ease. The teams that beat them in conf. like UNC, Louisville, and Clemson are all very good offensively. BC doesn't fit that description. And on the flip side, BC has shown that while they can hang around and scrape an occasional win vs the low to middling teams in the ACC, they tend to get overmatched and blown out by the good ones like VT, Louisville etc.
I don't know if Cook will get the 120-something yards needed to break the record vs a good BC D, but I think he'll do a lot better than the last few times they've played and give himself a chance. If he busts a long one the party will be on in Tallahassee tonight.
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