Good betting opportunities

I have 3 games that are bets most people will probably go the other way, but I feel value.

Minnesota +3.5

Love this spot for Minnesota, everyone thinks this Nebraska team is back and playing well. Minnesota has a great offensive line and I think they will dominate the line of scrimmage and time of possession. Give me the points and a serious live home dog.

Colorado St -10.5 

This team is starting to make some noise of late. I think we can make some serious money the rest of the way with this team. They have a mobile QB and a pretty good defense. I love the coach and his old school mindset. I feel like this game could end up 38-10.

Iowa -11.5

Jump on the team that no one likes. They play ugly, but man it is effective. Now they get to start chewing into the Big Ten West and Purdue is the first to get crushed. Iowa lost last year and Brohm is actually 3-1 against Iowa. This defense is ridiculous and Purdue is one dimensional. Not a good formula for being successful. I also feel like the Iowa offense might just go off here. I see something like 45-13. 

Just for fun I like:

Indiana +4.5

Alabama -17

Texas Tech TT over

Kentucky/Georgia under 44.5

@HitorMiss

 Bama prolly covers but after they crapped the bed lost week and lost me the last leg of a 10 team for 8k I have a sour taste in my mouth 

That score is not reasonable. Iowa averages 32ppg. Purdue gives up only 15ppg. I can understand thinking how Purdue's offense will slow down here. I just don't see how you would expect Iowa to do better here than than they have down vs inferior opponents. Iowa scored 30 on Kent St and 24 on Colorado State. Their only game with 38 points or higher was Maryland, in which it required getting 5 interceptions. Purdue has 6 interceptions on the entire season. Not to mention the over/under is 43, so your 10% higher than the books. 

You could be right with Iowa covering. But your score is really unlikely. Iowa should score between 15 and 32 points. Purdue has yet to score below 13 points. A much more likely score is Iowa 27, Purdue 16. However, I like Purdue in this match-up. So I am putting it at Purdue 24, Iowa 20.

You are taking Purdue, to beat iowa straight up? 

Oh, I love this line. +430. Purdue qb has higher rating, runs almost as good as Iowa, and has way better 3rd down conversion rate. They get 415 yards per game to Iowa's 318 yards. Iowa gets less yards per game despite a +14 TO margin. Purdue's defense is almost as good as Iowa's giving up 15ppg to Iowa's 13ppg. Most importantly, Purdue's D matches up well here as they have great pass defense. Iowa's offense is really bad. When you take Iowa's TOs out of the equation, they are not even a top 10 team. Now you can't do that. They have great cbs and get interceptions. However, Purdue has what it takes to overcome an interception, get the stop on D, and march right back up the field and try to score again. 

How often can you take a team that gives up 15ppg on defense for +430? Against a team that only gets 318y per game? Ummm, never? +430 Big.

Some nice looking picks there, Hitormiss, especially Minny and Hoosiers (both off byes).

Now, as for the guy who thinks purdue is going into the kinnick environment and come out with a W… yeesh. If it were in W Laf, I’d give boiler a 25% chance (and I do like this purdue team getting healthy, esp next week v Wisco). Take your +430 big bet amount, triple it on +11’ and sit back and enjoy yourself as Iowa runs the clock out on the ground.

Logical

@PeAceMaKer7690

 I’m with you on this game / not sure Purdue will win but they will be in the game.  I am playing FH moneyline as well - I think they come out of the bye with a good plan.  Read my write up on the game for more info.  Riley moss out for Iowa is also big - their best corner and one of best in country.  Purdue def is solid  and this is a good spot.  Good luck